Saints Passing Attack Under Microscope at Falcons

An up and down Saints passing game could be counted on to deliver a critical road win at Atlanta.

A New Orleans Saints team that underachieved through their first 10 games comes back from their bye for a road showdown against the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints come in with a 5-5 record, but a win over the 4-6 Falcons could give them a firmer grasp of first place in the NFC South. 

New Orleans has been one of the NFL's most frustrating offensive squads. Loads of talent, yet weekly blunders with play-calling, penalties, and lack of execution have plagued them. 

The Saints are ranked 13th in total yards with 337.4 per game. However, they've struggled to run the ball consistently (22nd), convert third downs (21st), and establish the line of scrimmage. Most concerning is their inability to finish drives. New Orleans averages only 21.4 points per outing (18th) and are a frustrating 22nd in red zone efficiency. 

Hosting the Saints is a physical Falcons team also coming off a bye. Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, a former New Orleans assistant, oversees a unit that is 18th in points allowed (21.7/game) but seventh in total yards (309/game) and also holds top-6 rankings on third downs and in the red zone. 

Saints QB Derek Carr has cleared concussion protocol and is on track to play, but the team lost WR Michael Thomas (knee) to injured reserve for at least four weeks. It's vital that the Saints establish the run, but here's a look at how they might fare against a much-improved Falcons defense through the air. 

Atlanta Pass Defense 

Oct 29, 2023; Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) throws as he's hit by Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle David Onyemata (90). Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

After ranking near the bottom of the NFL against the pass in four of the last five years, the Falcons are ninth in this category through 10 games this season. They've allowed just 200 air yards per contest with no 300-yard passers and only one with more than 270.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 63% of their throws against the Falcons with only five interceptions. Atlanta has recorded 62 QB hits, but managed only 21 sacks. They have also allowed three 100-yard receivers with eight more with at least 65 yards.

Big-play defensive lineman Grady Jarrett was lost for the season earlier this month. Without him, former Saint David Onyemata has been the only source of interior pressure. Onyemata has a team-high 12 QB hits, 16 pressures, and is tied for the team lead with 3.5 sacks.

End Calais Campbell, a 16-year veteran, has also injected life into the pass rush with three sacks, nine QB hits, and 13 pressures. Outside of them, Kentavious Street, Albert Huggins, and Zach Harrison have contributed just one QB hit and no sacks for the defensive line. 

Edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie has been impressive in his second year, tying Onyemata for a team-high 3.5 sacks in 11 pressures. Ebiketie is a power player who often steps up into a defensive end spot in Atlanta's 3-4 base alignment. Lorenzo Carter and veteran Bud Dupree team with him to give the Falcons an underrated trio of edge rushers. 

Dupree has three sacks and five QB hits, while Carter has added two sacks and six QB hits. Former Saint LB Kaden Elliss has shown that his breakout 2022 season was no fluke from the inside spot. Elliss has two sacks and four QB hits while being adequate in zone coverage. Nathan Landman has shown some coverage vulnerability at the other inside spot.

Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24) breaks up a pass intended for Green Bay Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks (13). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta mixes up their coverages and has that luxury with an outstanding safety like Jessie Bates and a physical complement in Richie Grant. Bates has three of his team's five interceptions and has elite anticipation to go along with terrific open field skills. He and Grant have combined to break up 10 passes and record 142 tackles. 

Fourth-year CB A.J. Terrell is Atlanta's best man coverage option. Terrell doesn't have an interception, but has broken up a team-high eight throws and allows just 57% completion percentage when targeted. He's an underrated athlete, but also overwhelms smaller wideouts with his physicality. 

Atlanta offers a physical group of corners to complement Terrell in Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes, Dee Alford, Clark Phillips, and Tre Flowers. However, the five don't have an interception among them and have combined to break up just 11 passes despite opponents avoiding throwing in Terrell's direction. 

New Orleans Passing Attack 

Nov 12, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes against the Minnesota Vikings. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY

The Saints rank 11th in passing yardage with an average of 237.4 per game. Derek Carr has completed 65.9% of his throws with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has four 300-yard outings and has played much better over the last month than in the beginning of the year. However, Carr's early season indecisiveness resurfaced in Week 10 against Minnesota. He also suffered a concussion and reaggravated a shoulder injury in that loss.

If Carr falters, the Saints would likely turn to Jameis Winston, who has 223 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in three quarters of replacement duty. Taysom Hill could also be an option. Hill has actually started three games at quarterback against the Falcons and has completed 57 of 75 throws for 702 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions against them.

Carr also won't have his most physical target available to him with Michael Thomas on injured reserve. Rookie sixth-round choice A.T. Perry replaced Thomas against the Vikings and had two spectacular catches. Perry or veteran Lynn Bowden Jr. will be counted on to make a few plays to add some diversity to the receiving corps. 

Chris Olave will continue to be the top option among the wideout group. Olave has 56 catches in 94 targets for 657 yards and three scores. He has two 100-yard outings and three more with over 80 yards, but also four games with less than 50 yards. While a bit inconsistent this season, he's a slick route runner with deep speed and excellent skills after a short reception. 

Rashid Shaheed is feared for his deep speed. However, he's also an underrated route runner capable of turning a short throw into a big play. Shaheed has 31 receptions for 531 yards and three touchdowns. His 14.9 punt return average also ranks among the best in the NFL. 

Expect Alvin Kamara to continue being heavily involved in the passing attack. Even despite missing the first three games with a suspension, Kamara has 50 catches in 56 targets for 301 yards. His route precision is as good as most wideouts, allowing him to create mismatches anywhere along the formation. 

Dec 18, 2022; New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) makes a catch against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY

Without Michael Thomas, TE Juwan Johnson could emerge as the team's primary physical target over the middle. Johnson has had a quiet year after breaking out in 2022. He missed four weeks with a calf injury, but has just 14 catches for 97 yards and a score in his other six games.

Johnson is an athletic mismatch for linebackers and has a size advantage over most safeties. He had four catches for 67 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 15 win over Atlanta last season. Veteran TE Foster Moreau could also emerge as another intermediate threat. With Thomas out, Jimmy Graham may also be activated to provide Carr with another big target in the middle. 

Taysom Hill has also been a viable receiving weapon. Hill has 159 receiving yards and a touchdown on a career-best 22 receptions this season. In his last seven games against the Falcons, Hill has accounted for eight touchdowns, including one as a receiver. 

Sep 11, 2022; New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill (7) runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Before regressing against the Vikings, New Orleans pass protection had shown marked improvement over their previous few contests. Saints passers have been sacked 24 times this season and under constant harassment in several games.

Andrus Peat has performed well since replacing a benched Trevor Penning at left tackle in Week 7. Peat has surprisingly held up well in pass protection and New Orleans screens to that side have been much more effective. Veteran RT Ryan Ramczyk has looked a bit closer to his former All-Pro form over the last month after early season issues. 

After some interior lineup shuffling over the first seven weeks, the Saints have their three starters again intact. Guards James Hurst, Cesar Ruiz, and C Erik McCoy still have issues with inside twists and stunts, but the Saints should form some continuity up front if they can stay healthy. 

What to Watch 

Dec 18, 2022; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) dives for extra yards after a catch against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports 

Ryan Nielsen knows the New Orleans offense and coordinator Pete Carmichael well. Still, the Falcons do not have the athletes at linebacker to stay with Kamara when he comes out of the backfield. (Perhaps someone should tell Carmichael, just in case)

Aside from Kamara, Olave and Shaheed need to step up and be big-time playmakers. Shaheed, underused much of the year, should see more balls with Thomas out. Olave looks like he might be working out of a slump, but the 2022 first-round choice needs to show the consistency of a featured target.

Expect Nielsen to use Elliss and other extra rushers on inside blitzes. The Saints must find a way to block it, but Carr needs to do his part by making the correct reads and doing so quickly. Johnson could also provide his quarterback a critical safety valve. 

It's important that the Saints establish their running game, but they'll also have to keep Carr upright and make plays through the air to win this game. Coming off a concussion and another shoulder injury, don't be surprised if Carr is replaced relatively quickly if he's ineffective. This game is far too important for New Orleans to go down with a wounded quarterback.