Saints Run Defense vs. Panthers Run Offense

After a two-game slump, the New Orleans rush defense was again formidable last week. Will they be able to build on that momentum against a shorthanded Carolina running game in Week 17?

The New Orleans Saints wrap up their regular season with a road trip to face the Carolina Panthers this Sunday. New Orleans comes into the game with an 11-4 record. They've clinched the NFC South, but need a win and some help to gain a first-round bye. They’ll look to get that win against the 5-10 Panthers, who had lost 8 of 9 games before a victory at Washington last week. New Orleans defeated Carolina at home by a score of 27-24 in Week 7.

The Saints come into this game with the league's 3rd ranked defense, giving up 310 yards per game. They are ranked in the top-10 in points allowed (22/game), pass defense (5th), and turnovers forced (9th), but this defense has been most consistent against the run over the last several seasons.

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The Saints rank 4th in rushing defense this year, allowing 95 yards per contest and 3.9 per carry. Only one defense has given up less than the ten rushing touchdowns against the Saints this year. New Orleans has held ten opponents under 100 yards on the ground this season. After a two-game slump against Philadelphia and Kansas City where they gave up 425 yards rushing, they rebounded to allow the Minnesota rushing attack to just 90 yards last week.

New Orleans will face a 20th ranked Carolina offense that averages 351.5 yards and 22.9 points per game. The Panthers have scored 30 points just three times this season and haven't reached that mark in the past six games. They rank 17th in passing offense, 21st in 3rd down efficiency, and 26th in red-zone percentage. The Panthers have been without one of the league's best offensive weapons for most of the year, something that has affected their entire offense, but especially the running game.

PANTHERS RUSH OFFENSE

Dec 29, 2019; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Curtis Samuel (10) moves the ball against New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) during the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY 

Carolina's rushing attack ranks just 21st in the league, averaging 108.7 yards per game and 4.2 per attempt. All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey has played in only three games this season because of a shoulder injury, but is still third on the team in rushing with 225 yards and 5 touchdowns. Sixth-year journeyman RB Mike Davis, who took on the lead back role in McCaffrey's absence, leads the team with 642 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Davis will also miss this Sunday's game with a leg injury, leaving the Panthers down to their third-string running back.

Oct 25, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (5) runs past New Orleans Saints defensive tackle David Onyemata (93) during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY

Carolina will probably split carries between Rodney Smith and Trent Cannon. Smith, an undrafted rookie, has 116 yards on 31 carries in six games. Cannon has 33 yards on 10 rushes. Expect the Panthers to use versatile WR Curtis Samuel out of the backfield often. Samuel has 197 yards rushing and 2 scores on 38 carries and is electric in the open field.

None of Carolina's top three backs have averaged four yards per carry this season. That, and the team's 40% success rate on 3rd downs, are both a result of McCaffrey's absence but also issues across their offensive line. Injuries will force the Panthers to use their fourth-string left tackle on Sunday, and their tenth different offensive line combination this season. A possible recipe for disaster against one of the league's best run defenses.

SAINTS RUN DEFENSE

Dec 29, 2019; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (22) is tackled by New Orleans Saints outside linebacker Demario Davis (56) and cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans could get underrated DT Malcom Brown back this week after a 3 week absence with a shoulder injury. Brown is one of the league's best interior run defenders, but the Saints have a deep and formidable crew of defensive tackles. David Onyemata and Sheldon Rankins are best known for their pass rushing skills, but each are outstanding run defenders. Shy Tuttle and Malcolm Roach have provided terrific depth, allowing the position a capable rotation to keep them fresh late in games.

Pro Bowl DE Cameron Jordan is one of the NFL's best all-around defensive linemen, just as capable of stopping a runner in his tracks as he is bringing down quarterbacks. Fellow defensive ends Trey Hendrickson, Marcus Davenport, and Carl Granderson hold up well along the edge against the run. The entire New Orleans defensive line causes disruption in opposing backfields consistently, but all have the athleticism to pursue and cut down a back along the edge.

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The Saints lost LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending Achilles injury last week and placed S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson on the Reserve-Covid list on Wednesday, but still have plenty of playmakers on the back end. The entire New Orleans secondary swarms to the football unlike few other defensive backfields, causing disruption along the line of scrimmage that has led to 75 tackles for loss. Safety Malcolm Jenkins is often deployed as an extra linebacker and is an outstanding defender in the tackle box.

All-Pro LB Demario Davis was overlooked -Again- in the Pro Bowl voting, but is one of the league's most respected defenders and the catalyst for this defense. Davis leads the defense in tackles (114), and his 10 tackles for loss are second on the team. He has outstanding play recognition with the athleticism and physicality to make big plays all over the field.

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Losing Alexander is an enormous blow to the defense, but LB Alex Anzalone is a proven contributor. Anzalone started the first eight games before the trade for Alexander and has 3 tackles for loss among his 39 stops this season. The team has some capable depth here with versatile veteran Craig Robertson, second-year LB Kaden Elliss, and promising rookie Zack Baun.

A normally stout New Orleans run defense slumped in losses to the Eagles and Chiefs, but regained some dominance at the line of scrimmage against Minnesota. The Saints held Carolina to just 37 yards on the ground and 2.6 per carry when these teams met in October. With the weapons that the Panthers have in the passing game, that kind of performance against the run will again be necessary to make the Panthers one-dimensional and turn their pass rush loose on Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater.