Saints Running Game vs. Buccaneers Run Defense

Saints chances to cling onto postseason hopes likely lie on their ability to run effectively against division rival Tampa Bay.

A 7-8 New Orleans Saints team enters Week 17 on the cusp of elimination from postseason contention. To stay alive, the Saints will have to get by the 8-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road on Sunday. A loss officially ends the New Orleans season, while a win keeps them alive going into the final week.

New Orleans has been disappointing in all facets of the game. Especially infuriating to fans has been the performance of their offense, which ranks 14th overall but has been maddeningly inconsistent at best. The Saints average 335 total yards and 22 points per contest. They've put up nice passing numbers in some games, but some of that has been because they were multiple scores behind in the second half. More concerning is the Saints inability to run the ball in most of their games.

Tampa Bay comes into Week 17 with a defense far less formidable than we've seen in recent years. The Buccaneers are 24th in total defense, allowing over 356 yards per game. However, their 20.1 points against ranks 11th in the NFL. They've held nine teams to 20 or fewer points, including three opponents out of their current four-game winning streak. The Bucs have also forced 24 turnovers, among the most in the league, including four in last week's rout of Jacksonville. 

While Tampa Bay has had some struggles against the pass, they've remained one of the league's more consistent run defenses. In a Week 4 loss to the Buccaneers, New Orleans managed only 70 yards rushing and 3.6 per carry. They'll need to perform much better in the rematch if they are to keep their season alive.

Tampa Bay Run Defense 

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Devin White (45). Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Buccaneers allow an average of 92 rushing yards per contest and 3.9 per carry to rank seventh in the NFL. Only two runners have managed over 100 yards against them, with two more over 70. Tampa Bay has held nine teams to under 100 total yards on the ground, including their last three opponents. 

Buccaneers' success against the run starts with mammoth DT Vita Vea. The 347-Lb. Vea clogs rushing lanes, ties up multiple blockers, is impossible to move off the line, and is still quick enough to get backfield penetration. He has just 36 tackles, but eight for loss and two forced fumbles. 

Vea's power inside has set up one-on-one matchups for his other teammates. Second-year DE Logan Hall, a former second-round pick, has had disappointing production but the size and power to play either inside or outside. This year's first-round choice, Calijah Kancey, has come on stronger recently after injury issues early in the year. William Gholston, Greg Gaines, and Patrick O'Connor provide outstanding depth up front. Their abilities allow Tampa Bay to limit Vea's snaps so he can be equally effective late in games. 

Taysom Hill (7) of the New Orleans Saints is tackled by Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50). Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY

Inside LBs Lavonte David and Devin White are extremely athletic playmakers. David leads the team with 113 tackles, including a team-high 17 for loss. He has outstanding instincts and is one of the league's best all-around defenders.

White can be vulnerable in open space despite his terrific speed and can be lured out of position often. However, his athleticism often allows him to beat runners to the edge before they can turn the corner. 

Outside LB Shaq Barrett (groin) has been ruled out for this game. His snaps will be taken by Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, another first rounder, with Yaya Diaby at the other edge. Nelson is the better run stopper. K.J. Britt and SirVocea Dennis will also see reps at the inside and outside spots.

Antoine Winfield leads an active trio of safeties that includes Ryan Neal and Dee Delaney. Winfield is one of the best all-around defensive backs in the league. His 110 tackles are second only to David on the team and he's just as disruptive at the line of scrimmage as he is in coverage. 

New Orleans Running Game 

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints are averaging just 99 rushing yards per game to rank a disappointing 21st. Worse yet, their 3.6 per rush is the second worst in the league. They've been held to fewer than 100 yards on the ground nine times this year, including their last three contests. 

In spite of missing the first three games, Alvin Kamara leads the Saints in rushing but has just 649 yards and 3.8 per carry. Kamara's highest rushing output of the year is 80 yards. It's the only time he's run for more than 70 yards in 12 games, a span where he's also been held to less than 60 on the ground seven times. 

Kamara possesses elite balance and vision. He's most effective on runs between the guard and tackle, where he can take advantage of his tremendous cutback ability. Too often, we've seen the Saints instead run him into the teeth of the defense with very little blocking assistance in front. 

Taysom Hill has been the most consistent power runner for the Saints this season. Second on the team with 349 rushing yards, Hill has the strength to bowl over defenders and the speed to pull away from them once he spots an opening. Most of his runs come as a wildcat quarterback, where he can also keep defenses on their heels with the threat of a pass.

New Orleans Saints Taysom Hill (7) runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY

One of the most disappointing players for the Saints in 2023 has been RB Jamaal Williams. The offseason pickup missed four games earlier this year with a hamstring injury, but has averaged a paltry 20 yards rushing and three yards per carry in his 11 game appearances. Moreover, he has no rushing scores after leading the NFL in that category with Detroit last season. Kamara (5) and Hill (4) have the only rushing touchdowns among anyone on the roster.

While play-calling has certainly been an issue, the inadequacies of the New Orleans rushing attack has largely been due to an ineffective offensive line. It's a line that will be missing RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee) and will attempt to replace him with Landon Young. Andrus Peat has done a solid job, especially as a run blocker, since replacing benched LT Trevor Penning at mid-season. 

The major problems have been on the interior. Guards Cesar Ruiz, James Hurst, and C Erik McCoy have failed to get the necessary push for inside runs and aren't getting outside quick enough to open holes for off-tackle plays. 

What to Watch 

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Christian Izien (29). Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

Among the many failures with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael has been the inability to get Kamara in space. This will be an even bigger challenge against Tampa Bay, whose athletic defense has often been able to keep Kamara in check. 

In their Week 4 loss to the Buccaneers, Kamara had 11 runs for 51 yards and 13 receptions, but for only 33 yards. Expect Kamara to again be heavily involved, but he'll need to be effective with his touches. Especially near the goal line. He has 11 touchdowns in 12 career regular season games against Tampa Bay. 

When the Saints do run inside, they'll need to be able to move Vea for a rushing lane with still getting a blocker on David. Taysom Hill will be the X-Factor here. Hill sparks the entire unit once he gets involved. However, he has only three combined touches in the last two games while dealing with a foot injury. 

New Orleans may not pick up a lot of rushing yards against the Buccaneers, but they'll have to be effective enough with it to possession of the ball. This is especially crucial early in the game, to reduce the pressure on QB Derek Carr and establish balance. The Saints flickering playoff hopes likely depend on it.