Saints vs. Chiefs Key Matchups

The return of New Orleans QB Drew Brees sets up a marquee quarterback duel between he and Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes. What other matchups will determine this titanic Week 15 clash?

The 10-3 New Orleans Saints host the 12-1 Kansas City this afternoon in what some are hyping as a potential preview of Super Bowl LV. New Orleans needs a win to clinch the NFC South and to stay in contention for the top seed in the conference. A Kansas City victory puts them one step closer to clinching the Number One seed in the AFC. This is the 12th all-time meeting between these teams. Kansas City holds a 6-5 edge in the series and a 4-2 advantage when the teams play each other in New Orleans.

The first game between these franchises took place in the second week of the 1972 season in New Orleans. On September 25, 1972, in Tulane Stadium, the Chiefs defeated the Saints 20-17 despite committing 4 turnovers thanks to 10 unanswered 4th quarter points. The last time the Saints and Chiefs played was on October 23, 2016, in Kansas City. Despite 367 yards passing from QB Drew Brees, the Chiefs would pull out a 27-21 win.

CREDIT: nola.com

They last faced off in New Orleans on September 23, 2012. The Saints jumped out to a 24-6 3rd quarter lead behind three touchdown passes from Brees. Kansas City climbed back thanks to 273 yards rushing and 18 unanswered points through the 4th quarter to tie the game, with the Chiefs eventually taking a 27-24 overtime victory.

Brees, 1-2 against the Chiefs as the quarterback of the Saints, returns to the lineup today after a four-game absence with a serious rib injury. That sets up a marquee quarterback duel between the future Hall of Famer Brees and All-Pro QB Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. There are plenty of other position battles that will determine the outcome of this showdown of talented championship contenders. Here are some of those matchups to watch closest.

TE JARED COOK vs. S TYRANN MATHIEU

Dec 6, 2020; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints tight end Jared Cook (87) makes a catch in front of Atlanta Falcons cornerback Isaiah Oliver (26) during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY 

The Saints will be without All-Pro WR Michael Thomas and Deonte Harris for the rest of the regular season because of injuries. We should expect RB Alvin Kamara and WR Emmanuel Sanders to be an even bigger part of the passing attack, but the Saints also need more production from Pro Bowl TE Jared Cook. A twelve-year veteran, Cook has 28 receptions for 350 yards and a team-high 6 touchdowns.

Kansas City's most athletic defender is All-Pro S Tyrann Mathieu, who is a playmaker who lines up all over the field. Mathieu leads the Chiefs with 9 passes broken up and a career-high 6 interceptions. He’s allowed 61% completion percentage and 2 touchdowns when targeted, and will often slide into man coverage in the slot. The Chiefs have been vulnerable to opposing tight ends recently, allowing 18 catches for 259 yards and 3 scores to Darren Waller, Rob Gronkowski, and Mike Gesicki over the last three weeks.

Cook is among the league's better tight ends because of the mismatches he creates for opposing defenses. Mathieu, despite a size disadvantage, can stay with Cook down the field because of his physicality and athleticism. Kansas City may try to guard Cook with their linebackers early in the game and use Mathieu on Kamara when he lines up wide, but Cook will have a big athletic advantage. If the tight end can make plays in that matchup, it will force the Chiefs to switch their coverages and leave Kamara with a sizeable advantage against the Kansas City linebackers in the open field.

SAINTS DEFENSIVE ENDS vs. CHIEFS OFFENSIVE TACKLES

Dec 13, 2020; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) passes as New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) defends in the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans has 36 sacks and 86 QB hits this season, among the highest in the league, but didn't have a sack and generated little pressure on Philadelphia rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts in a loss last week. Defensive end Trey Hendrickson leads the team with a career-high 10.5 sacks. 

Pro Bowl DE Cameron Jordan has added 6.5 takedowns and 22 pressures, and DE Marcus Davenport has been disruptive when healthy. The Saints have also gotten terrific interior pressure from their defensive tackles, forcing opponents to double-team inside at times and leave Jordan, Davenport, or Hendrickson with single blocking along the edge.

The Chiefs have allowed only 19 sacks this season, among the fewest in the NFL. Mahomes has outstanding mobility, something that gave the Saints problems last week against Hurts. Kansas City will also be without injured RT Mike Remmers, and LT Eric Fisher is a game-time decision with a back injury.

New Orleans must be able to consistently pressure Mahomes to force him into rushed decisions to help their secondary. In particular, Jordan, Hendrickson, and Davenport must be disruptive in their matchups outside. If they can make plays along the edge, it will force the Chiefs to shift their double teams and open up opportunities for the New Orleans defensive tackles inside.

SAINTS INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE vs. CHRIS JONES

Sep 27, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints center Erik McCoy (78) and center Nick Easton (62) block against the Green Bay Packers during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY

The New Orleans offensive line is coming off their worst performance of the year last week against the Eagles, allowing five sacks and not getting a consistent push in the running game. Left tackle Terron Armstead struggled after a two-game absence because of a positive COVID test. Guard Nick Easton left the game with a concussion that has him out for today’s game. Rookie guard Cesar Ruiz continues to be inconsistent in pass protection, and LG Andrus Peat has been awful in recent weeks.

The Chiefs have generated little pressure on opposing passers and have just 24 sacks this season while being ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing yards and yards per rush. They have two disruptive Pro Bowl defenders upfront in DE Frank Clark and DT Chris Jones that are among the league's better pass rushers. Jones leads Kansas City with 6.5 sacks and 37 pressures, while Clark has 5 sacks and 21 pressures.

Protecting Brees is always a critical factor, but even more so today with him recovering from injury. I expect Armstead to bounce back, but he faces a challenging matchup against Clark. Peat, Ruiz, and C Erik McCoy must play better against Jones and the Kansas City defensive line to give Brees a clean pocket and open up cutback lanes for running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray.

SAINTS SECONDARY vs. CHIEFS WIDE RECEIVERS

Oct 25, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) defends against Carolina Panthers wide receiver Robby Anderson (11) during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans defensive backs have played terrific football after some struggles over the first month of the year. Over the last six games, they've allowed just 54% completion percentage and three touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks while intercepting 9 of their 13 passes on the season. Cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins are a big key to that success. They've allowed only 56% completion percentage when targeted this season, with 4 interceptions and 17 passes broken up.

Kansas City has the speed of a 4×100m relay team at wide receiver. Tyreek Hill is one of the league's most feared receivers and has 77 receptions for 1,158 yards and a league-high 14 touchdowns. They have outstanding depth with former Pro Bowler Sammy Watkins, Pro Bowl kick returner Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson, all deadly threats in the open field. Slowing down record-breaking TE Travis Kelce is also an unsuccessful endeavor for most teams. Kelce leads the Chiefs with 90 receptions for 1,250 yards and 9 touchdowns and has eclipsed the 100-Yd mark in five of the last six games.

I expect the Saints to guard Kelce with a combination of linebackers Demario Davis, Kwon Alexander, and S Malcolm Jenkins while using S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to help slow the Kansas City wideouts with Lattimore and Jenkins. The New Orleans corners should be physical with the smaller Chiefs wideouts to prevent a free release off the line of scrimmage but will be challenged to stay with them in the open field.

Free safety Marcus Williams, who has 3 interceptions and tied with Janoris for the team lead, must also make proper reads and sure tackles to prevent big plays. It’s something that Williams struggled with early in the year, but he’s played extremely well over the second half of the season.

PREDICTION:

SAINTS - 34 CHIEFS - 31