Saints vs. Falcons: Key Matchups

Which position battles will determine the outcome of this Week 13 clash between bitter NFC South rivals?

The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons prepare to face each other for the 104th time in one of the NFL's most bitter rivalries. Atlanta leads the all-time series 53-50. That includes a 27-24 record against the Saints in Atlanta, site of this afternoon's showdown. Since head coach Sean Payton arrived to their franchise in 2006, New Orleans owns a 20-9 record against their Georgia rivals, including a 9-5 mark in Atlanta.

Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints outside linebacker Demario Davis (56) hits Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) forcing an incomplete pass during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints have won five of their last six meetings with the Falcons, most recently a 24-9 home victory in Week 11 this season. New Orleans comes into this rematch with a 9-2 record, winners of their last eight contests, and in first place of the NFC South. The Falcons sit at 4-7 and are desperately trying to even climb into contention for an NFC postseason berth.

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees will miss his third game with a rib injury, but the Saints are favored by three points to win their ninth consecutive game. Here are some matchups to watch closest against their most intense rival.

ALVIN KAMARA vs. DEION JONES

Nov 28, 2019; Atlanta, GA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY 

Kamara's bid to be just the fourth player in NFL history to have 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season seems to be diminishing with a light statistical output over the last few weeks. The star running back is still having a magnificent season. He leads the Saints in rushing with 585 yards and 8 touchdowns. He also not only leads his team but leads all NFL running backs with 68 receptions for 646 yards and 4 scores.

The Falcons are one of the few teams that have been able to contain the dynamic and versatile Kamara. In seven career games against Atlanta, Kamara has averaged just 87 yards from scrimmage and scored only once. That average would be even worse if not for a 190-yard all-purpose game, 124 yards of it receiving, against the Falcons in 2018. Falcon LB Deion Jones is one of the league's only players at the position that can match the dual-threat New Orleans back athletically. Jones is Atlanta's best defensive player. He leads the team in sacks, interceptions, tackles for loss, and passes defended.

Kamara has not been used much as a receiver since Taysom Hill took over for the injured Drew Brees at quarterback. They targeted him only once in the victory over the Falcons two weeks ago, a game where he finished with 45 yards rushing. Look for the Saints to get Kamara more involved in the passing attack this week, putting him in isolation matchups with the athletic Jones in the open field.

JAMES HURST/ANDRUS PEAT vs. DANTE FOWLER/CHARLES HARRIS

Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints center Cesar Ruiz (51) blocks Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (97) during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY 

New Orleans All-Pro LT Terron Armstead will miss his second game after being placed on the Reserve-Covid list. Veteran lineman James Hurst stepped in for Armstead last week and did a fabulous job as a run blocker. Hurst has traditionally had problems with athletic edge rushers, however, and struggled with one-on-one matchups against Denver's Bradley Chubb.

Atlanta has only 22 sacks this season but had 3 takedowns of Taysom Hill two weeks ago. Five sacks have come from defensive ends Dante Fowler and Charles Harris, both former 1st round draft picks. Fowler, who missed the last game against New Orleans, is questionable today with a hamstring injury. The Falcons added him this offseason specifically to upgrade their pass rush.

Peat returns to the lineup after missing last week with a concussion. He has filled in for Armstead at left tackle before and played well. The Saints must be able to protect Taysom Hill and allow him to find open receivers. If they struggle against Fowler and Harris on the left side, the Saints could slide Peat to tackle and plug reliable veteran Nick Easton at guard, where they must contend with the disruptive Grady Jarrett inside.

CAM JORDAN vs. KALEB MCGARY

Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) rushes Atlanta Falcons offensive tackle Kaleb McGary (76) during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY

Jordan was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Month for November after 5 sacks, 10 QB hits, and 6 tackles for loss in five games. Three sacks were against Atlanta QB Matt Ryan two weeks ago. Jordan is one of the NFL's best defensive linemen and has been a nightmare for Atlanta blockers throughout his career. In nineteen games against the Falcons, Jordan has 21 sacks, 33 QB hits, and 23 tackles for loss. Seven sacks have come in his last two games against Atlanta, where he's been matched up against RT Kaleb McGary, a first-round pick in 2019.

Facing a deep and disruptive New Orleans defensive line, the Falcons will probably need to match McGary against Jordan one-on-one often to deal with the Saints' other pass rushers. New Orleans sacked Ryan 8 times in their win two weeks ago, and 17 times in the last two games between these teams. To deal with Atlanta's big-play passing attack, the key will be to get that kind of pressure on Ryan once again.

SAINTS SECONDARY vs. FALCONS RECEIVERS

Nov 28, 2019; Atlanta, GA, USA; New Orleans Saints free safety Marcus Williams (43) tackles Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley (18) after a catch during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY 

Non-stop pressure on Atlanta's backfield was a big key to New Orleans beating the Falcons last month. Another crucial element was the standout play of the Saints secondary. Ryan completed just 51% of his throws against the New Orleans defensive backs, who intercepted him twice. They held big-play receivers, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in check, allowing 7 receptions for 129 and no touchdowns.

The Saints were without injured CB Marshon Lattimore in their last game with Atlanta. Lattimore is back, but they have ruled fellow corner, Janoris Jenkins, out of this game with a knee injury suffered last week. The New Orleans secondary has played much better after early-season struggles, helping the team rank fifth in pass defense and first in overall defense.

Atlanta WR Julio Jones has averaged 9 receptions and 90 yards receiving in 17 career games against the Saints, with ten games of at least 75 yards receiving and six 100-Yd outings. Wideout Calvin Ridley has been just as dangerous, averaging 6 catches for 90 yards in five games against New Orleans with four games of at least 90 yards. The Saints must also be wary of TE Hayden Hurst and WR Russell Gage, who are both big-play threats.

Ryan and his receivers will test New Orleans safeties Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins in deep coverage, a weakness earlier in the year. Lattimore, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Patrick Robinson, and P.J. Williams must also lock onto Ryan's targets underneath, allowing their fierce pass rush time to get to the Falcons quarterback. Over the last four games, the Saints have allowed opposing passers to complete just 54% of their throws, surrendered only one score, recorded 14 sacks, and intercepted 9 passes.

PLAYER TO WATCH: TAYSOM HILL

Nov 29, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) passes the ball in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Hill surprised many with his accuracy and composure in the pocket against Atlanta in his first career start two weeks ago. He completed 18 of 23 attempts for 233 yards and no interceptions while running for two touchdowns in that game. In a run-heavy game plan against Denver last week, however, Hill seemed to regress. He was 9 of 16 for just 78 yards, but was not decisive with the ball and overlooked several open receivers.

Hill will be a big factor in the running game, along with Kamara and Latavius Murray. I expect the Falcons to load the box with extra defenders to slow the run. It will be up to Taysom Hill and his receivers to defeat that scheme with crisp passes into the secondary, quick decisions with his throws and big plays down the field against one-on-one coverage.

The jury is still out whether Taysom Hill can be a quality NFL passer. If the Saints are going to win this rematch against their hated rival, Hill will have to answer that question today against an Atlanta defense that ranks 31st against the pass.

PREDICTION:

SAINTS - 23 FALCONS - 20