Saints vs Vikings: Key Matchups

New Orleans looks to exorcise the ghosts of postseason past and give themselves an NFC South championship for Christmas.

The New Orleans Saints kick off Week 16 of the NFL season when they host the Minnesota Vikings in a Christmas Day showdown. New Orleans comes into the game with a 10-4 record and one victory away from the NFC South championship, but losers of their last two. The Vikings enter with a 6-8 record and clinging to slim playoff hopes.  They will be eliminated from the postseason with a loss today. 

This is the 36th meeting between these franchises, with the Vikings holding a 23-12 advantage in the series. That includes a 9-8 edge over the Saints in New Orleans, the site of today's clash. Five of those meetings occurred in the postseason where Minnesota has entrenched itself in the postseason nightmares of New Orleans faithful with a 4-1 record against the Saints.

CREDIT: nola.com 

The lone playoff win for the Saints against Minnesota was the most important game in this series. A 31-28 overtime victory over the Vikings in the NFC Championship on January 24, 2010, in New Orleans propelled the Saints on to a victory in Super Bowl XLIV.

Sean Payton and Drew Brees are 5-4 against Minnesota since joining the franchise in 2006. However, two of those losses were last-second heartbreaking defeats in the playoffs, including an upset at home in overtime to the Vikings last January.

CREDIT: nola.com

Instead of torturing ourselves with the ghosts of Christmas past, let’s focus on Christmas present and examine what matchups will determine whether New Orleans unwraps an NFC South title for the holiday.

ALVIN KAMARA vs. VIKINGS LINEBACKERS

Oct 28, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) carries the ball during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY  / Credit: Chuck Cook, USA Today Sports

The dynamic Kamara leads the Saints with 777 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns and has added a team-high 80 receptions for 739 yards and 5 scores, best among all NFL running backs. Minnesota will be without injured All-Pro LB Eric Kendricks, Troy Dye, and Todd Davis, depleting an already struggling unit. Kamara has averaged only 65 yards from scrimmage in four career meetings against the Vikings, but he’s scored 4 touchdowns.

The New Orleans receiving corps may get rookie Marquez Callaway back in the lineup but will still be without injured wideouts Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris, and Tre'Quan Smith. Tight end Jared Cook faces a crucial battle with Minnesota safety Harrison Smith, and veteran WR Emmanuel Sanders must make plays as the top remaining target among the wideouts.  Expect to Saints to deploy Kamara around the offensive formation as a runner and receiver to take advantage of the battered Viking linebacking corps.

DEMARIO DAVIS vs. DALVIN COOK

Jan 5, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints outside linebacker Demario Davis (56) tackles Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) during the second quarter of a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick Hingle-USA TODAY

Cook is second in the NFL with 1,484 rushing yards and a league-high 15 touchdowns. He has rushed for over 90 yards nine times this season and has five games with at least 130 rushing yards. Cook has over 100 yards in his last three outings. He is also an accomplished receiver, catching 42 passes for 349 yards and a score. When he is slowed, either by injury or an opponent, the Minnesota offense is stagnant.

The 4th ranked New Orleans run defense has slumped over the last two games, allowing 246 yards rushing to the Eagles and 179 to the Chiefs. Coordinator Dennis Allen knows the importance of stopping Cook, who has accounted for over 130 yards in both career meetings against New Orleans. The Saints must win their battles along the line of scrimmage and maintain gap discipline. The catalyst of this defense is All-Pro LB Demario Davis, who leads the team in tackles and has ten tackles for loss. Expect several head-to-head matchups between Davis and Cook during this game, with most ending in bone-jarring collisions.

SAINTS OFFENSIVE LINE vs. VIKINGS DEFENSIVE LINE

Aug 9, 2019; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints center Erik McCoy (78) blocks against Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson (94) during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY

The New Orleans line has bullied opponents when they're at their best. They've allowed only 11 sacks of quarterback Drew Brees and paved the way for the league's 7th ranked rushing attack. However, guard Nick Easton (concussion) will miss his third straight game, and LG Andrus Peat has been dealing with an ankle injury. The Saints have been held to less than 100 yards rushing in both of the last two weeks and have had some issues with pass protection. This offensive line also struggled mightily against the Minnesota defensive front in an upset playoff loss last January, giving up 3 sacks and 7 QB hits while failing to establish control in the running game.

Minnesota's pass rush has been invisible in 2020, recording just 22 sacks. This is a completely different defensive line that defeated the Saints last January but still has some talent upfront like DT Jaleel Johnson, DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, and rookie DE D.J. Wonnum. Protecting Brees and establishing their running game is crucial for the Saints offensively, especially with so many injuries to their receivers.

MARSHON LATTIMORE/JANORIS JENKINS vs ADAM THIELEN/JUSTIN JEFFERSON

Jan 5, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) defends Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) during the second quarter of a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

One Ghost of Christmas past for the Saints departed this offseason when WR Stefon Diggs was traded to the Bills. Another specter of postseason past, tight end Kyle Rudolph, will miss today's game with an injury. Minnesota wideout Adam Thielen has also embedded himself in the nightmares of New Orleans defensive backs. The Vikings also added a superstar when they drafted WR Justin Jefferson in the 1st round. Jefferson, who has 73 receptions for 1,182 yards, 7 touchdowns, and six 100-Yd games, is perfectly capable of adding a new chapter of nightmares to this rivalry.

Thielen, who has 62 catches for 771 yards and a team-high 13 scores, is a familiar haunt for New Orleans defenders. He has averaged 7 receptions for 116 yards in four career games against the Saints and caught a deep pass that set up the game-winning touchdown to Rudolph last January. Thielen has been the coal in the stocking of New Orleans Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore, who has shut down most of the league's best receivers but struggled against the Viking wideout. 

Jan 14, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) catches a pass against New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY 

Lattimore and fellow corner Janoris Jenkins have been outstanding in man coverage this season, allowing the Saints to be more aggressive in their defensive packages. They've combined for 4 interceptions, 18 passes broken up, and have allowed less than 57% completion percentage when either is targeted.

They must now hold up in their coverage responsibilities against the star Minnesota duo. Doing so would allow defensive backs Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Malcolm Jenkins, P.J. Williams, and D.J. Swearinger to be used on the complementary Viking weapons and guard better against the deep ball. That would also force Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to hold the ball longer, one of his fatal flaws, and leave him vulnerable to the relentless New Orleans pass rush.

Jan 5, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws a pass against New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) during the third quarter of a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY

Look for the Saints to bring heavy pressure on the skittish Cousins if their coverage holds up to force him into mistakes. Cousins has transformed from a mediocre quarterback to a Hall of Famer during his career against New Orleans. The Saints can change that if they contain Cook to make Minnesota one-dimensional, then lock down his primary pass targets.

Offensively, look for a bounce back from QB Drew Brees in his second game back from a rib injury after a rusty performance last week. Establishing the line of scrimmage and their running game will be crucial, and will also set up play-action opportunities to make up for the injuries to their wideouts.

I expect the Saints to exorcise some of their demons of postseasons past by dominating the Vikings in Christmas Present, pulling a division title and a home playoff game out of their stocking for the holiday season.

PREDICTION:

SAINTS - 31 VIKINGS - 20