Saints Win-Loss Scenarios and Possible Repercussions for 2022

Despite national views, the New Orleans Saints have the talent to compete for a title in 2022. Here are some of the win-loss scenarios, and potential aftermath, that the Saints face this season.

Vegas oddsmakers and most national pundits are giving the New Orleans Saints little respect as we head towards the 2022 season.

The Saints are coming off a 2021 season where they finished with a 9-8 record and barely missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Injuries caused the team to use an incredible 57 different starters last season.

Four different players started at quarterback because Jameis Winston was lost for the year in week 8 with a knee injury. Pro Bowl players like WR Michael Thomas and K Wil Lutz were shelved for the year before playing a single snap.

Fellow Pro Bowlers Andrus Peat, Ryan Ramczyk, and Terron Armstead went down early in the year or missed significant portions of the season with injuries. Important contributors, like defensive linemen Tanoh Kpassagnon and Payton Turner, were lost early in the year. Even dynamic RB Alvin Kamara missed an important stretch of games while dealing with a knee injury.

Despite those obstacles, New Orleans was still just a game away from going to the playoffs for a fifth straight year. Most of the above mentioned players are back. The Saints also added significant free-agent talent in WR Jarvis Landry and safeties Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu, along with two first-round picks in WR Chris Olave and OT Trevor Penning.

The New Orleans roster has Pro Bowl talent at nearly every position on both sides of the ball. However, there is still a lack of national confidence that Winston can be a capable replacement for Drew Brees. Dennis Allen is also relatively unproven as a head coach, and he’ll have sizeable shoes to fill with the departure of Sean Payton from the sidelines.

As a result, Vegas odds placed the Saints win total at 7.5 victories this season. Most national projections have the team at around the same win total. Those projections seem short-sighted and showing a lack of research. But to be fair, the Saints have some crucial questions to answer in 2022.

So what would be a fair expectation for this team? Here’s a look at some of the potential results, and possible aftermath, for the Saints in 2022.

7 Wins or Less

New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2) calls for the ball against the New England Patriots. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY 

Despite national thoughts, this seems the least likely scenario. Health is the almighty equalizer, so another eye-popping rash of injuries like last year could certainly cause a long season. Aside from that, the Saints have the talent to compete with anyone in the league.

If a reasonably healthy New Orleans team does finish below. 500, especially with a double-digit loss total, then heads could roll. Unless the bottom completely falls out, it would seem unlikely that the Saints move on from Dennis Allen after just one season. Quarterback, however, could be a completely different story.

Jameis Winston is on a two-year contract, but it's a team-friendly deal that would allow New Orleans to move on with little financial penalty in 2023. Winston has often flashed the talent that made him the top overall selection in the 2015 NFL Draft. He’s also been plagued by turnovers and inconsistency throughout his career.

If Winston stays healthy but plays poorly for a sub-.500 team, expect the Saints to have a new quarterback under center in 2023. A losing record could also result in New Orleans parting with several established veterans who have instrumental to the team's success since 2017.

The Saints have annually been a franchise that juggles salary cap numbers to keep their own talent in the building. A losing record from a healthy team could change that strategy and cause a rebuilding project. Perhaps even with a new coach.

8-10 Wins But No Playoffs

New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56) in action against Philadelphia. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

On a playoff caliber roster, this kind of finish would create impatience from the fan base and tons of questions from the front office. Jameis Winston could be back, unless poor play is the primary reason for missing the playoffs. Even if he is, he and Dennis Allen may be on an extremely hot seat in 2023.

This is another scenario that would cause the front office to examine the older players on the roster and make some painful personnel moves. Veterans like Cam Jordan and Demario Davis are franchise icons, but are carrying big contracts as they approach their mid-30s.

Losing records can also cause a mass exodus in free agency. Stars like DE Marcus Davenport, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, C Erik McCoy, DT David Onyemata, and WR Deonte Harty are in the last years of their contracts.

The Saints have been able to re-sign many of their own players or lure outside free agents on slightly lesser deals because they were among the league's top contenders. If that's no longer perceived to be the case, it will cost more money to keep their own players or sign other free agents.

Major personnel movement usually occurs when a team misses the playoffs. If the Saints miss the postseason for a second straight year, and are somewhat healthy while doing so, they would probably be no exception. A complete rebuild may not be necessary, but there would be significant changes at several positions.

10-12 Wins and Playoffs, but early Postseason Exit

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) escapes Carolina defensive backs Myles Hartsfield (38) and cornerback Rashaan Melvin (29). Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

This was the frustrating outcome of the last two seasons with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Unless it’s a fluke, like 2018 to Minnesota, or a robbery, like 2019 to Los Angeles, then this scenario also causes major offseason questions. The team’s coaching staff and front office would seriously look down their roster to figure out why the franchise fell short of a championship.

Assuming that most of the roster plays up to their capabilities, then a postseason berth likely hinges on the quarterback position. If the Saints make the playoffs but bow out early, questions will still swirl about whether Jameis Winston can be a championship quarterback.

If Winston plays consistently well throughout the year, he'd almost certainly be given another chance in 2023. Older players on the roster may not be as fortunate. Unless they are still playing at a high level, someone like Jordan or Davis may have to agree to a pay cut and a lesser role just to remain with the team.

A team that feels they're on the fringe of a title can often get impatient and take unnecessary roster risks. New Orleans ownership showed great patience while Sean Payton retooled the team prior to 2017.

I’d expect them to show that same patience with Dennis Allen if the team makes the playoffs this year. However, a disappointing early exit would still force some tough scrutiny throughout the roster.

12+ Wins and Deep Postseason Run

New Orleans Saints defensive backs Marshon Lattimore (23) and New Orleans Saints Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (22) celebrate against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY

The Saints do not have to win Super Bowl LVII for the season to be deemed a success. Winning the NFC South, or a deep playoff run would certainly do the trick. It would answer the question whether Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston can lead a championship team.

Winston is just 28 years old. We can presume that a deep postseason push meant that he played extremely well during the year, which could mean a lucrative long-term contract extension. Allen, who turns 50 in September, is a relatively young head coach.

Most of the New Orleans roster is still extremely young. Only 10 players are age 30 or older, with most of their young stars under contract for the next few seasons.

The biggest microscope will obviously be on Jameis Winston and Dennis Allen in 2022. However, the rest of a championship caliber roster is eager to prove that they are still capable of a title run.

Either of the last two scenarios would prove that last year was a fluke. A hiccup caused by a relentless rash of injuries. The Saints front office is betting that this was the case. They kept their young core intact, were aggressive in free agency, and swung a trade to pick up an extra first-round pick.

A deep postseason run and long-term success looks possible with a young and highly talented roster. Anything less could bring ugly repercussions not seen in New Orleans since before Sean Payton's arrival in 2006.

Read More Saints News

• Saints 90-man Mini-Camp Roster

• Saints Pressure Cooker: All Eyes on Jameis Winston and Dennis Allen

• Saints Jameis Winston Has Chance to Silence Critics for Good

• Dennis Allen Set Up for Optimal Success

• Saints Training Camp Preview: Quarterback

• Ronald Curry Talks Saints Quarterback Room, Pete Carmichael

• Saints' Most Unheralded Stars Could Hold the Key to Success

• Saints Who Could Make A Leap in 2022

• Saints Injured Stars Should Return Team to an Elite Level

• Saints Offensive Weapons: The Pros, Cons, and Position Outlook

• Saints WR Chris Olave On 'Rising Stars List'