Michael Thomas is Saints' X-Factor in 2023

Why the availability of Michael Thomas takes the Saints offense to a different level.

The New Orleans Saints have made several key acquisitions this offseason. Derek Carr was brought in as an expected major upgrade at quarterback. Jamaal Williams adds a much-needed boost to the backfield and will be a starter during Alvin Kamara's three-game suspension. Rookie Kendre Miller, a third-round pick, is also expected to be a majority contributor here. Foster Moreau and Jimmy Graham give the team possibly the league's deepest and most versatile tight end position. 

Defensively, New Orleans completely revamped their front interior. Tackles Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd were prioritized early in free agency. The Saints also used their first-round choice on DT Bryan Bresee. They then doubled down up front by using a second-round pick on DE Isaiah Foskey to add athleticism to the edge. Jaylon Smith, Lonnie Johnson, and Ugo Amadi were also signed to bolster depth at linebacker and the secondary. 

This is already a Saints team with several other established stars or up-and-coming talents. Kamara, TE Juwan Johnson, WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, DEs Cam Jordan and Carl Granderson, LBs Demario Davis and Pete Werner, CBs Marshon Lattimore, Alontae Taylor, and Paulson Adebo, and S Tyrann Mathieu are either among the league's best at their positions or potential breakout stars.

Obviously, these players are instrumental to the team’s success in 2023. However, the return to health of this former All-Pro might be the most critical to the fortune of the Saints this season. 

Michael Thomas, WR

Oct 6, 2019; New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas (13) runs after a catch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Mike Edwards (34). Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY

A second-round choice by the Saints in the 2016 NFL Draft out of Ohio State, Thomas had a record-breaking start to his career. He led the team in receptions as a rookie, catching 92 balls for 1,137 yards. His first Pro Bowl berth followed in 2017, as he caught 104 passes (then a franchise record) for 1,245 yards.

Thomas hit even higher levels in 2018 with 1,405 yards on an NFL-high 125 receptions. He set new franchise marks in both categories along with single game records for catches and yardage while earning 1st Team All-Pro accolades. 

The record-breaking start to Thomas' career hit an apex in 2019. He'd pull in an incredible 149 receptions, breaking a 17-year NFL single-season reception record, while his 1,745 receiving yards also led the league. Thomas earned 1st Team All-Pro honors for the second consecutive season. He also won the 2019 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, joining Drew Brees as just the second player in New Orleans history to earn that honor. 

Over his first four seasons, Michael Thomas averaged over 117 receptions and 1,378 yards. He set an NFL record for receiving production in a player's first four years as well as a list of franchise records. Thomas looked well on his way to a Hall of Fame career. Over those first four years, he missed just one of a possible 69 games including playoffs. 

All that would change in 2020.

Injury Woes

Dec 6, 2020; Atlanta Falcons linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (54) and linebacker Deion Jones (45) try to pry the ball away from New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas (13). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY

Thomas suffered an ankle injury in a 2020 season opening win over Tampa Bay. The injury forced him to miss the next six contests. Even upon his return, he was hobbled throughout the rest of the season and went back on injured reserve for the last three games of the regular season. He'd return for the playoffs, but was an ineffective shadow of his usual dominance. 

Despite the injury limitations, Thomas still had an impressive four-game stretch with 30 catches and 343 yards. He'd put off surgery during the year so he could get back in the lineup. 

Thomas continued to put off surgery into the offseason. Once he finally elected to have the procedure, complications from the surgery would sideline him for the entire 2021 campaign. 

Thomas was back on the field to start 2022. He got off to a promising start, catching 16 passes for 171 yards and three scores over the first three contests. Unfortunately, toe and foot injuries would knock him out for the year's final 14 games.

In all, Thomas has missed 40 of the Saints' last 50 regular season contests. After turning 30 in March, Thomas agreed to a restructured contract for 2023. He'll now be playing on a bonus-loaded deal that could potentially make him a free agent at year's end. 

Doubting Thomas at your own risk

Sep 11, 2022; New Orleans Saints receiver Michael Thomas (13) catches a pass over Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Many now doubt that Michael Thomas can stay healthy for an entire season, let alone return to his dominant form of 2019. This might be an unwise assumption. Thomas has always played the game with an edge. Now, I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder and anxious to prove naysayers wrong.

Thomas is also playing for money. His restructured contract is loaded with millions in performance-based incentives. Additionally, a healthy and productive year would set him up for another lucrative contract - either with the Saints or on the free-agent market. On the field, Thomas is still one of the league's better receivers when healthy. 

In 80 career games (including postseason), Thomas has 33 100-yard outings and 57 total games with at least 70 yards. He has at least five receptions in 64 of those 80 contests with 10 or more catches 19 times. That's an eye-popping 80% of his games with five or more receptions and 71% of the time with more than 70 yards receiving. 

Granted, he may not be the same dominant player he was in 2019. However, a three-game sample in 2022 showed that he is still nearly unstoppable in the intermediate areas of a defense. Few players possess the combination of route precision, physicality, and sure hands that Thomas shows in the middle of a defense or along the sidelines. 

Big Comeback Coming?

Aug 1, 2023; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) works on leaping drills during training camp at the Ochsner Sports Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike in 2020, 2021, or even last year, the Saints are much better equipped if Thomas goes down with another injury. However, his abilities add a different dimension to this offense. 

Thomas' physicality and outstanding routes will be a security blanket for Derek Carr, especially in key situations. He'll also open up the field for game-breaking threats Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, while creating opportunities for the other New Orleans weapons. 

The Saints have had one player in their franchise history win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. Defensive end Joe Johnson took those honors in 2000. If his injuries are behind him, Michael Thomas still has the talent to add his name to that list and be a major factor in the Saints' success in 2023.