Will Saints QB Derek Carr throw for more than 4,000 yards in 2023?

Less than 10 quarterbacks amassed 4,000 passing yards in 2022, but if all goes well this year, Derek Carr could be amongst this year's group.

Ross Jackson | Apr 19, 2023

Will Saints QB Derek Carr throw for more than 4,000 yards in 2023? /

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New Orleans Saints

One of the NFL's biggest free agency acquisitions this offseason was former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr landing with the New Orleans Saints. As a quick follow-up to that move, the Saints then worked out a deal to keep record-setting wide receiver Michael Thomas in the Big Easy as well. With a receiver room now stacked with Thomas, second-year sensations Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed and a familiar face for Carr, former Raiders wideout Bryan Edwards, the Saints offense looks poised to be a threat through the air.

USATSI_19648583_168388561_lowres — Dec 18, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) celebrates after a touchdown against the New England Patriots in the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Adding in pass-catching running backs like Alvin Kamra and Eno Benjamin along with Jamaal Williams whose focus this offseason includes refining his abilities as a receiver out of the backfield and the Saints have a few different ways to attack defense. And that is without even mentioning tight end Juwan Johnson who returns the Saints on a new deal in 2023 after a breakout season last year wherein he caught 42 passes for 508 receiving yards and 7 touchdown catches.

With all of the talent around Carr, and the ability to add more in the year’s NFL Draft, Vegas is wondering just what the ceiling is for the veteran passer in New Orleans. FanDuel Sportsbook has a prop bet set for Carr’s passing yards in 2023. The projection is set at 4,000.5 yards and the odds to go over or come in under are even.

While the Saints love a running team identity on offense, they may not have all of their weapons throughout 2023 in order to establish and maintain that. Kamara still has a potential suspension looming connected to his upcoming court date which is presently set for July 31. Should he end up being unavailable for any stretch of games this year, New Orleans may have to look to the air a bit more than they would hope.

Alvin Kamara catches a pass against the Detroit Lions — Oct 4, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) catches a pass against Detroit Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye (24) during the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

But with the weapons listed above and the necessary draft capital to add more targets for Carr and even more talent in the backfield, the latter seems very likely at some point in the draft, going for over 4,000 passing yards is far from farfetched for Carr.

The biggest factor to the team’s success with their new signal caller will be health. Carr has only missed four games in his regular season career and only two of them due to injury. But it goes beyond him. The health of players like Thomas, Olave and the possible pass-catchers around him will be paramount as well.

Assuming Thomas and Olave appear in 15 games in 2023 and that they maintain the same level of per-game productivity as what they produced in 2022, that would be a great head start for Carr. Olave averaged 69.5 receiving yards per game last year in his 15 appearances and Thomas reeled in an average of 57 in his 3 games played.

If the two produced at the same level for 15 contests in 2023, 1,897 of the 4,000 passing yards would already be secured. Top that with Shaheed, whose 15-game approximation using last year’s 40.7 receiving yards per game would add another 610. Throw in another 500 for Johnson and 500 more for running backs in general, which would be a low mark by the Saints’ standards and already Carr is less than 500 yards away from topping 4,000 passing yards.

USATSI_19029785_168388561_lowres — Sep 11, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) celebrates after a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Consider then that pass-catchers Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, Adam Trautman and Jarvis Landry combined for 915 yards receiving last year. A low mark for what the Saints had intended, especially with the injuries that limited that group. But that was more than enough production behind the top guys assuming the upper-echelon group is healthy and productive.

So 4,000 passing yards is not an unreasonable mark to assume Carr will surpass by any means. Especially if the run game sees some limitations depending upon how that room fully pans out in 2023. But the most important element will be health which is something that has been a bit of a struggle in New Orleans over recent years. Get that problem fixed, and Carr could surprise as a top-flight passer considering only 9 quarterbacks eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark a year ago.

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