The Dreaded 3: Saints Running Backs Fantasy Projections

The New Orleans Saints running backs fantasy football projections for 2023-24.

Alvin Kamara's fantasy football fanatics will have a problem during the 2023 Fantasy Football drafts.  Kamara and his legal issues have been widely reported since his Feb. 6, 2022, arrest in Las Vegas after the 2022 Pro Bowl.  After several delays, Kamara's trial for an alleged battery against Darnell Greene will begin on July 31.  The hearing may coincide with the Saints Training Camp's start for veterans and rookies.

What's troubling fantasy experts and participants is that Kamara could face a league-mandated suspension for his participation with co-defendants Chris Lammons, Darrin Young, and Percy Harris.  If so, a play to draft Kamara would be a waste for the one-time golden fantasy player.

New Orleans Saints running backs Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Miller; Credit: USA Today Sports

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According to CBS Sports' fantasy rankings, AK41 has been a rollercoaster ride over several seasons.  He entered the league posting a 14.5 ppg average in 2017.  His numbers jumped to 18.1 (2018) and fell to 11.9 (2019). His best season was in 2020, averaging 19.6 ppg but had taken a nose dive to 14.3 (2021) and 10.3 (2022).  Yes, missing time due to injuries and COVID protocols affected his production, but it's Alvin Kamara.  He has the uncanny ability to change a game with one explosive run or thrilling reception.

WILLIAMS, MILLER, OTHERS BETTER FANTASY PLAYS?

To counter any loss of Kamara, New Orleans signed former Detroit Lions rusher Jamaal Williams who led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022.   Next, assistant general manager Jeff Ireland's scouting department figured using this year's third-round selection on TCU running back Kendre Miller could alleviate the loss of Kamara in the Saints backfield.  As the upcoming OTAs and training camp sessions occur in Metairie, LA, fantasy owners should pay close attention to the Saints rookies Eno Benjamin, SaRodorick Thompson, Jr, and Ellis Merriweather.  It would be a surprise if New Orleans signed a free-agent veteran running back before training camp.

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Williams, Miller, and the other running backs will get extra reps should the All-Pro Kamara be sidelined because of a lengthy trial. Miller isn't 100% as he recovers from a midseason knee injury at TCU.  "I liked his downhill running style," Dennis Allen said about Miller.  "I think he's got really good feet. I think he's got really good contact balance.  And he's got the speed to take it the distance if he breaks free in the open field, so there's a lot of qualities about him that I like."

Alvin Kamara has undoubtedly been a special player for the New Orleans Saints since Sean Payton worked him out at Tennessee's 2017 Pro Day.  The AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has assembled an impressive resume with 2 All-Pro nods, 5 Pro Bowls, and several rushing and receiving records in the NFL.   One troubling note is that Kamara has yet to play a complete season since his rookie year.  Therefore, you understand why fantasy football analysts are straying away from Alvin Kamara's projections for the impending season.

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SAINTS RUNNING BACKS FANTASY PROJECTION

Until Mr. Kamara resolves his legal issues, his fantasy outlook is stuck in the cloud.  The safer play would be for Jamaal Williams — New Orleans needs a bell cow toting the rock for Pete Carmichael's offense. The team's rushing offense was ranked 19th last season, with only 12 touchdowns (22nd) and a red zone scoring efficiency that placed them at 21st in the league.  

During the 2022-23 season, Williams had his most successful fantasy performance, scoring an average of 12.5 points per game. Out of the Lions' backfield, he ran 262 times for 1066 yards with an average of 4.07 yards per rush and has scored 17 touchdowns. The approach of using Williams in their rushing attack may be similar in New Orleans. It's reasonable to expect him to improve from his previous year's performance of only catching 12 passes for 73 yards.

It's hard to factor in Miller's performance at this time. We'll wait to observe him during training camp before making a full evaluation. While Alvin Kamara is an exceptional player, he will likely be a better choice for fantasy football once he's given the all-clear to play.