Alvin Kamara Fantasy Outlook: Beware of the 'Regression Monster' in '21

New Orleans Saints superstar running back has been a solid fantasy football player in each of his four seasons. However, Michael Fabiano has concerns about his projections in 2021.

Alvin Kamara is a Fantasy Football Monster since his arrival to the league in 2017.  

The 2x All-Pro has recorded a total of 6,164 yards from scrimmage — 2nd in the NFL in that period.

Last season, AK had the third-most yards from scrimmage in the league at 1,688 yards and led all 21 touchdowns (receiving and rushing).

Drew Brees' command of the offense contributed to using Kamara much as he did with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles.

Getting him involved in the passing game via check-downs, screens, and crossing routes was Brees' strength.

A majority of Kamara's success in New Orleans is as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. 

He became the first NFL running back to have over 81 receptions his first four years with 81, 81, 81, and 83 for a combined 2,824 receiving yards.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

ALVIN KAMARA TO BATTLE THE 'REGRESSION MONSTER'

In 2021, Michael Fabiano projects Alvin Kamara will have the 'Regression Monster' to visit without Drew Brees under center.

Then, what will Kamara's production project with either quarterbacks Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill this season?

The contrast between Winston and Hill's offensive styles will impact Kamara. Fabiano pointed out, "Brees threw the football to his running backs 28.1% of the time...Winston threw to his running backs 16.4% of the time in Tampa Bay."

Nov 8, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2) looks on against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

KAMARA WITH JAMEIS WINSTON

The most any Bucs running back caught passes from Winston was in his rookie season at 51.  

We must be fair to Jameis, a Tampa Bay offense is nothing close to a Sean Payton offense in New Orleans.

Winston's technique is more comparable to Brees' than Hill's.  

As the starter, Winston will incorporate the running backs and keep Kamara engaged in the passing game.

Dec 13, 2020; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (L) hands off to running back Alvin Kamara (R) during the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

KAMARA WITH TAYSOM HILL

Whereas, Taysom Hill is a different story. Kamara's usage dramatically dipped during Hill's four games stretch in subbing for an injured Drew Brees.

Kamara hinted a mild concern for his production's decrease with Hill under center in an interview with 'Speak For Yourself' co-hosts Marcellus Wiley and Emmanuel Acho in March.

Acho reminded Kamara he hadn't gone without a reception since November of 2016 at Tennessee.  

"Me and Taysom just gonna have to have a real talk," Alvin whimsically replied.

Fabiano's prediction is grim. Regardless, Kamara will still have an impact on the Saints' offense for 2021. Still, fantasy owners should expect a reduction in receptions and overall output with either Winston or Hill starting in New Orleans.

Alvin Kamara, 25, has 60 game appearances with the New Orleans Saints since being drafted in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft.  The four-time Pro Bowler has tallied 975 fantasy football points in four seasons.  In 2020, Kamara ranked No. 2 as a fantasy running back and No. 2. overall with 295 total fantasy points.

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