By the Numbers: Can the Saints Handle the Dangerous Evans-Godwin Combo without Lattimore?

Saints star CB Marshon Lattimore's game status are listed as OUT against the Buccanneers. How will the New Orleans Saints DBs handle Mike Evans and Chris Godwin with Lattimore?

Saints star CB Marshon Lattimore, LG Andrus Peat and breakout rookie KR/PR Deonte Harris game status are listed as OUT against the Buccaneers for Sunday in Tampa. Our focus is on Lattimore’s absence. Without Lattimore, who will cover a potent Mike Evans? Will it be Ali Apple, P.J. Williams or a combo of defensive backs for the Saints?  Most of all, can the unit be successful containing two of the league's dangerous receivers.

The numbers for Thomas and Evans:  Evans has 924 receiving yards this season.  He is second in the NFL behind the Saints WR Michael Thomas.  Thomas leads the NFL with 1,027 yards and 86 receptions.

BY THE NUMBERS -  EVANS vs. THOMAS

In 2019, Mike Evans’ statistics are fascinating since he has 32 fewer catches than Thomas. If you examine the fact he was completely shutout in the first Bucs-Saints game by Lattimore, he only trails Thomas by 103 yards. One can summarize that the Jameis Winston to Mike Evans connection has been excelling in “big plays” this season. This makes the Bucs’ passing attack dangerous for the Saints without a healthy Marshon Lattimore in the lineup. 

In the Week 5 Bucs-Saints contest, Lattimore impolitely had Evans to lay goose eggs on the Mercedes-Benz Superdome field.  Evans went for 0 yards for 0 receptions on 3 targets.  He was wide open and dropped a Winston pass, which could have resulted in a touchdown.  Therefore, you can only say Evans has played in 8 of the Bucs 9 games this season.  Yet, Evans has averaged 115.5 yards/game compared to Thomas' average of 114.1 yards/game in 9 games.  

Profootball Focus grades Evans at 88.4 and Thomas at 88.3 for the season.  The two receivers rank behind Tyreek Hill (90.6), Amari Cooper (90.2) and Evan's teammate Chris Godwin (89.2).

ROCKS, PAPER, SCISSORS - WHO GUARDS WHO?

The Saints must decide who draws the main assignment to guard Evans. Historically, neither Eli Apple and P.J. Williams has been successful covering him.  In the past games without Lattimore, P.J. Williams has answered the call for the Saints defense.  Winston and Evans could consistently connect as Evans played the wideout position.  Evans’ speed was the issue for Williams and he often trailed in coverage.  But Williams had minor success in the slot position against Evans with a pass breakup in the Week 5 game.

Scott Clause-USA TODAY Sports

Here's a look at P.J. Williams in pass coverage the past two years for the Saints from Profootball Focus (thanks to Saints Reporter John Sigler for requesting Williams' numbers):

Outside: 19 targets, 11 receptions (57.9%), 182 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 2 forced incompletions, 129.8 passer rating

Slot: 102 targets, 68 receptions (66.7%), 810 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 11 forced incompletions, 103.0 passer rating

*playoffs included https://t.co/Xu5HcUSjYw

— PFF NO Saints (@PFF_Saints) November 16, 2019

Saints S Marcus Williams must become a factor in today's game.  He must use his range and instincts to prevent the "big plays" and support either Williams or Apple.  His performance in 2019 has been graded well by Profootball Focus.  Through the first five weeks, Williams was noted as the best safety in the NFL:

Another important task for the Saints DB's is covering Tampa Bay's #2 receiver Chris Godwin.  Godwin has been referred to by PFF as a Top 5 Receiver in the NFL.  He has graded better than both Evans and Thomas at 89.2.   In nine games, he has 60 receptions for 840 yards and 6 touchdowns. The Saints may prefer Apple to take on Godwin.  Godwin had a commanding performance over the Saints secondary in the two team's earlier meeting. He notched 7 receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Winston targeted him 9 times on the day. Godwin has the potential to be lethal and help Winston maintain drives with timely receptions.  Rookie Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Patrick Robinson will be handle the nickel corner duties against Tampa's slot receivers.

This game will highlight three of the best producing receivers in the NFL today.  It should be an entertaining and high-scoring event to watch.

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

  

In order to keep pace in the NFC playoff race, New Orleans must notch a win over another NFC South rival.  The Saints are 1-1 in the NFC South and need a division victory before facing the Carolina Panthers next week.   Going into Week 12, if Green Bay and Seattle (on bye week) at 8-2 will place pressure on New Orleans to continue winning.  Especially the several NFC matches against the Bucs, Panthers (twice), Falcons, and Niners remaining on the schedule.

The game is in Tampa, Florida at Raymond James Stadium.  The kick-off is at 12 PM CST.

Fox Sports affiliates will handle the broadcast.  Thom Brennaman (Play-by-Play), Chris Spielman (Color Analyst), and Shannon Spake (Sideline Reporter) will handle the broadcast duties for Fox Sports.