Saints Wild-Card Preview, Predictions, and Playoffs Odds

Previewing the postseason odds and predictions for the New Orleans Saints (12-4) in the 2021 postseason.

Vegas has New Orleans as strong contenders for their second Lombardi Trophy. The Saints (12-4) will host their second consecutive NFC Wild Card playoff game on Sunday against the Chicago Bears (8-8).

Nov 1, 2020; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) drops back to pass against the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Saints head coach Sean Payton led the 12-4 team through various COVID-19 landmines and severe injury issues to compile a 12-4 record and 4th straight NFC South division title. 

Life in the NFL had its hiccups for the New Orleans star players. Quarterback Drew Brees will be 42 on Jan. 15th and completed his 20th NFL regular season. His 11 rib fractures and quick return to action after being sidelined was nothing short but amazing for Mr. Brees.  He knocked-off the rust and finished the year on a high note with 3 touchdown passes in Carolina.  

2019's AP Offensive Player of the Year, Michael Thomas, was hampered by a high-ankle injury most of 2020.  After his single-season NFL record of 149 receptions a year ago, Thomas managed to catch only 40 passes for 438 yards in 7 games.  New Orleans is expected to have Thomas available for the Bears game in the NFC Wild Card round.

The final piece to the Saints "Big 3" offensive weapons is running back Alvin Kamara. He had a tremendous 2020 regular season. Unfortunately, he missed a 1,000 yard rushing season after testing positive for COVID-19 on Friday before the Carolina season finale. His results had a domino effect on the team's running backs unit. Close contact tracing protocols prevented all of the running backs and position coach Joel Thomas from participating in the Carolina game.  

Finally, the Saints and their fans can applaud the NFL.  The schedule makers gave New Orleans hope of a Kamara return with the team playing the Bears on Sunday afternoon.  A Saturday clash would have had their star running back out of the postseason opener.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Credit head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael for installing an outstanding offensive game sans the running backs. They converted and featured WR Ty Montgomery, rookie RB Tony Jones, Jr. (rookie), and QB Taysom Hill. The trio's ground game was one of the season's most potent attacks, with 156 rushing yards and 1 touchdown by the players.

New Orleans' playoff outlook is exceptionally positive ahead of the tilt against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, Jan. 10th at 3:40 PM CST in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Drew Brees will have the full complement of his offensive targets like Kamara, Thomas, Sanders, Cook, and Hill at his disposal. The New Orleans defense is healthy again.  On Sunday, they create 3 sacks and notched 5 interceptions against the Panthers' quarterbacks.

SAINTS-BEARS LAST MEETING

The Saints squeaked out a 26-23 overtime win over the Bears in Week 8 at Soldier Field. Brees went 31/41 for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns in his battle with the Bears' former starting quarterback Nick Foles. Kamara's monster game of 67 yards rushing and 96 yards receiving helped New Orleans in the win.  

The Saints defense managed to disrupt Foles with 4 sacks and 1 interception. Still, the Bears clawed their way back into the game with a 10 point 4th quarter to tie the contest with 1:30 remaining. A Wil Lutz 35 yard field goal in the overtime was the difference for New Orleans.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints and Bears are different teams today. Vegas favors the New Orleans at home by 9.5 points. As the Saints discovered last January versus the Minnesota Vikings in the 2020 NFC Wild Card game, being at home is not a promise to a win. I expect Sean Payton and his team will not take quarterback Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears lightly with this in mind. 

The Saints have a unique history of playoff collapses against NFC North foes.  Still, the veteran leadership on the team is focused on going deep into the postseason.  I don't believe from listening to their media conferences, they will not overlook any playoff opponent, instead they're intent on winning throughout the NFC Playoffs. 

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SAINTS POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

I wanted to canvas the Vegas and prediction models to analyze New Orleans' chances in 2021. 

ODDS WINNING WILD CARD ROUND (Chicago vs. New Orleans)

• Team Rankings:  78.3% chance of winning
• William Hill Sportsbook: 9.5 point favorite (Saints)
• FiveThirtyEight: 85%
• MGM: 10 point favorite (Saints)
• ESPN Matchup Predictor: 78.9%

ODDS WINNING DIVISIONAL ROUND

• Team Rankings - 52.0% chance of winning
• FiveThirtyEight: 63%

ODDS WINNING NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

• Team Rankings - 29.3% chance of winning
• FiveThirtyEight: 34%
• NY Times: 12%
• Caesars Palace:  +325

ODDS WINNING SUPER BOWL 55

• Team Rankings - 16.6% chance of winning
• FiveThirtyEight: 19%
• FanDuel Sportsbook: +750 (Tied 3rd with Buffalo Bills)