How Saints Offense Could Defy Odds To Upset Chiefs On MNF

Once again shorthanded, the New Orleans offense must somehow create plays for a chance to upset the Chiefs

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes against the Kansas City Chiefs / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Playing their second straight away game and third in four weeks, the New Orleans Saints travel to play the 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. The Saints come into the game at 2-2 after dropping their last two games in the final minute.

After an incredible two games to start the season, the Saints have come back to earth a bit offensively. They still come into Week 5 ranked first in points scored and ninth in total yardage. Their running game is the key to most everything they do, but the Saints have also been effective through the air.

New Orleans now squares off against a Kansas City defense that helped carry them to a second consecutive title last year and ranks 15th overall this year. The Chiefs haven't been quite as formidable against the pass as they have against the run. However, they have playmakers at all three levels that can make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks, blockers, and receivers.

Today, Saints News Network analyzes how the New Orleans passing game matches up against Kansas City's pass defense.

Saints Passing Attack

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass against Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford (20) / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

New Orleans has averaged a shade over 200 yards passing over their first four contests to rank 19th in the league. But remember that the Saints needed to throw the ball little in the second half of their first two outings because of sizeable leads.

Quarterback Derek Carr is off to perhaps the most efficient statistical start of his 11-year career. Carr has completed 72% of his throws for 824 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions, one of which came off a tipped ball at the line.

Most importantly, Carr has often been decisive with his reads and accurate with his ball placement. He's only attempted more than 25 passes once this season, but it's clear that he's comfortable in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's system.

On the receiving end of most of the targets are wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Both are fast and talented pass catchers capable of inflicting damage at all three levels of a defense.

Olave is quickly developing into one of the NFL's top receivers in his third season. After two years of over 1,000 yards, he has caught 20 of his 24 targets for 265 yards so far this year. He's not a physical target over the middle, but has elite body control on sideline routes and is a dangerous runner on crossing patterns or short throws.

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) catches a long pass against the Indianapolis Colts / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

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Perhaps the league's most consistent deep threat is Shaheed, the third-year speedster. While defenses fear his home run ability, Shaheed's underrated route precision and electric open field running skills. Shaheed was shut out in Week 3 against Philadelphia, but has 15 receptions for 252 yards in the other three contests.

Alvin Kamara is the best receiving back in the NFL. A legitimate pass catching threat anywhere along the formation, he has very good hands and the route precision of a seasoned wideout. Kamara has 17 catches for 174 yards so far. He'd be even more effective, as would Olave and Shaheed, if there were another bonafide receiving threat on the team.

Olave, Shaheed, and Kamara each have at least 15 catches and 20 targets. No other player on the roster has more than five catches or six targets. Wideouts Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson, and Bub Means have combined for a meager five receptions and 26 yards on seven targets. starting

New Orleans tight ends have also been no help. Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson have a collective nine catches and 84 yards on 12 targets. Johnson is especially disappointing. His athleticism and route abilities should make him a matchup advantage for the offense.

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) runs against Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid (20) / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The Saints will also be without Taysom Hill for the second time in the last three weeks because of injury. Hill's absence further handcuffs the offense because of their lack of productive depth.

What could cripple this offense even further are the massive amount of injuries to their offensive line. Center Erik McCoy (groin) was already on injured reserve.

His replacement last week, Shane Lemieux, played adequately but will be out this Sunday with an ankle injury. Conner McGovern, signed just this week off the Jets practice squad, will likely get the start.

Starting RG Cesar Ruiz (knee) will miss his second straight outing. Making matters even worse is that LG Lucas Patrick (ankle) looks like a game-time decision at best. The interior issues puts even more pressure on tackles Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning to hold up on the edge in more one-on-one situations. This while going up against a very disruptive Kansas City defensive front.

Chiefs Pass Defense

Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) sacks Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

After ranking fourth against the pass last season, Kansas City has allowed an average of 228 yards through the air per game this year to rank 22nd. Opposing quarterbacks have had success against the Chiefs secondary, completing 64% of their throws with five touchdowns and one interception. However, the challenge for opponents has been keeping their passer upright to find open receivers.

The Chiefs were among the NFL leaders with 57 sacks and 125 QB hits in 2023. So far in 2024, Kansas City has only eight sacks but 27 QB hits. Defensive tackle Chris Jones leads the quarterback assault. Arguably the best interior defender in the league, Jones has had at least nine sacks in five of his last six campaigns.

This season, Jones has three sacks, six QB hits, and 12 pressures. He requires at least two blockers for even a chance of containing him. Fellow tackles Derrick Nnadi, Mike Pennel, and Tershawn Wharton aren't nearly as disruptive but are capable of pushing back a pass pocket.

Jones is complemented by edge rushers George Karlaftis, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Mike Danna. Karlaftis has a sack and six QB hits this year, but is coming off 10.5 sacks and 35 pressures in 2023. Anudike-Uzomah and Danna both have impressive athleticism at the other edge.

Steve Spagnuolo is one of the more aggressive defensive coordinators in the NFL. He'll often blitz linebackers Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, Leo Chanel, or a safety with great effectiveness. Bolton and Tranquill are also strong in coverage, giving the Chiefs the versatility to throw different looks at opposing quarterbacks.

Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) defendes a pass intended for Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Darnell Mooney (1) / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Kansas City coverage has allowed five players to gain at least 65 yards receiving against them. The offseason loss of CB L'Jarius Snead has caused some shuffling at the position, but Trent McDuffie is a top-10 corner on the other side.

McDuffie is often avoided when possible, but is giving up less than 58% completion percentage when he is targeted. Jaylen Watson has emerged as the starter on the other side. Watson has given up some big gains, but leads the Chiefs with five passes broken up and allows only 50% completion percentage in man coverage.

Second-year defender Chamarri Conner is the fifth defensive back and typically plays the slot. He's been targeted with a 78% success rate but also has returned a fumble for a score and has the team's only interception so far this year.

Justin Reid and Bryan Cook are a physical tandem of safeties. They are a solid pair in coverage, but are athletically limited in slot or single-high assignments. As a result, the Chiefs have been vulnerable on deeper sideline routes and against opposing tight ends.

What to Watch

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) after a catch against the Kansas City Chiefs / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

It's imperative that the Saints establish a rushing attack for balance, but especially in this one with their offensive line issues. Those issues will undoubtedly cause an aggressive Spagnuolo to attack the line of scrimmage even more so than usual.

Last week, the Saints attacked the Atlanta defense with more sideline-to-sideline routes than down the field. With potential protection issues, look for New Orleans to have a similar game plan. If so, Carr will need to deliver the ball quickly to Olave, Shaheed, and Kamara in stride so they can maximize yards after the catch.

If there was any week where Juwan Johnson needs to show up big, it's this Monday night. The Chiefs have been extremely vulnerable to tight ends this year, giving up a 50-yard catch to Kyle Pitts and allowing a combined 16 receptions and 202 yards to Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki.

If you're looking for an offensive X-Factor, it could be Johnson. Getting him involved would also create one-on-on opportunities for Olave, Kamara, and Shaheed, especially if the protection can hold up.