What Could A Contract Between Alvin Kamara and the Saints Look Like?

There's been a lot of thoughts on what the Saints should do with Alvin Kamara, and here's one more to consider after weighing out several factors.

Dec 31, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) gets ready to come into a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints are going to have plenty of questions going into this season, but the most pressing one right now revolves around the future of Alvin Kamara.

We're not even two weeks removed from the final minicamp practice, and this continues to dominate all of the storylines and take center stage for New Orleans. The good news is that the two parties have time to work this out, with those parties being Mickey Loomis and Kamara's agent, Brad Cicala. So, what would make this work? Let's dive in.

The Saints Cap Situation

The NFL's salary cap increased to $255.4 million this year, up $30 million from last season, which is just over 13%. If we just use a basis of a 10% increase due to the increased network contracts and other factors, the cap could get to around $281 million for 2025 and that might be a modest projection.

New Orleans has some $358.7 million in commitments to 2025's salary cap, with their Top-51 coming in at $331.6 million. Without getting too crazy, here's their top five hits, which account for $161 million of the pie, nearly 45% of the financial picture.

• Derek Carr - $51.5 million
• Marshon Lattimore - $31.4 million
• Ryan Ramczyk - $29 million
• Alvin Kamara - $29 million
• Cam Jordan - $20 million

Alvin Kamara's Current Contract

There's some confusion around Alvin Kamara's deal, so let's look at it closer using Over the Cap.

Year	Cap Hit	Dead Money	Cap Savings
2024	$18.55 million	$18 million	$544,353
2025	$29.07 million	$10.1 million	$18.4 million
2026 (Void)	$6.06 million	$6.06 million	None
2027 (Void)	N/A	$1.98 million	None
2028 (Void)	None	None	None

HOW 2024 IS CALCULATED: Kamara has a base salary of $10.2 million and a prorated signing bonus of $6.87 million. There's also the $1 million roster bonus that triggered on March 13, a per game bonus that is worth up to $500,000, and a $100,000 workout bonus. This year doesn't seem like it's the issue, but the future is. Additional commitment, guarantees and money feel like it could be warranted, especially if the vision for Kamara in Klint Kubiak's offense is to be that Christian McCaffrey-esque staple.

2027 is for a prorated signing bonus, and the bottom line is Kamara has no guarantees in his future and there's no way he's going to see that $29 million in 2025. However, if the Saints were to move on from Kamara after this season, he's still owed some money.

Kamara is the top running back salary cap hit right now across the NFL, with Jonathan Taylor being behind him at $10.66 million. Christian McCaffrey just turned 28 in early June and got a big contract extension recently, while Kamara turns 29 in July.

Is Age Just a Number?

Age is certainly a factor here, but let's not forget that New Orleans used Mark Ingram when he was 32 and 33, with 2022 being his final season in the league. Ingram even performed well with the Ravens in his 30-year-old season. Other running backs like Raheem Mostert (31), Adrian Peterson (33), Frank Gore (31, 33) accomplished successful 1,000-yard campaigns in the past decade. It's a valid concern, but certainly not a given that Kamara's production would just plummet. After all, he has some of the best conditioning out there.

Alvin Kamara is reportedly looking for job security and is open to doing a reworked two-year deal that would give him stronger guarantees in 2025, but those talks haven't led to much since the original report came out. Naturally, the solution is to find middle ground here. You can't look at Kamara's situation and not consider factors that haven't exactly helped him out like play calling, the instability at offensive line and his three-game suspension. The only game he missed due to injury was the season finale after hurting his ankle against the Bucs from the previous week. 7 of his 13 games saw him appear in 60% of the offensive snaps or more.

Pitching An Alvin Kamara Contract

Whether you want to call it a reworked contract or extension, a two-year window for Kamara in 2025 and 2026 (age 30 and 31 season) could go a long way to the tune of $25 million with $17 million guaranteed. That's generously guaranteeing 68% of the financials to Kamara, and that would say a lot. The exact number isn't totally relevant, but $15-20 million in guarantees feels like the window for two years, and could be different if it were upped to three years. The Saints could also just make things work for 2024 and 2025, similar to what they've done with players like Tyrann Mathieu, Demario Davis and Cam Jordan.

New Orleans guaranteed 68.6% of Carl Granderson's deal last season and 68% of Demario Davis' three-year deal in 2020. The final number is what the Saints and Kamara need to agree on, but if they can get the two or three-year deal done with a strong threshold for the guaranteed money, then they could avoid a potential headache when it comes to training camp. The clock may be ticking, but there's still plenty of time to get this all handled before veterans report on July 23. For now, we'll patiently await the outcome and not get ahead of ourselves.