A Recipe for a New Orleans Win: Key Ingredients for the Saints to Upset the Chiefs

If the Saints want to pull off an upset on Monday night, here's some of the things they need to do against the Chiefs.

Sep 29, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Saints (2-2) travel to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs (4-0) to close out Week 5 action in the NFL, and it's obviously an important game for New Orleans. They've got to find a way to win here, and that's no easy task going into Kansas City and upsetting the defending Super Bowl champs. Here's a few things that need to go right for the Saints if they want to get back into the win column.

Keys to the Game for the Saints

Sep 29, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Limit Chris Jones

You're not going to fully take away what Jones does on the interior, so you need to find a way to hold up in pass protection and not try to let him take over the game. He's a player you have to know the whereabouts of on every play, and the Saints have said as much. This is where your run scheme could obviously be a benefit here, but when you need to get those short conversions and go up the middle, you have to get him out of the way.

Given the state of the Saints offensive line right now with the injuries they have on their hands, it's unclear who will end up lining up where and will be available on Monday night. The patched offensive line got the job done for the most part against the Falcons last week, but injuries to two of the starters in Shane Lemieux (ankle) and Lucas Patrick (groin) are concerning going into the game. Steve Spagnuolo's defense will look to feast.

Control Mahomes Magic and Kelce

Patrick Mahomes has only played the Saints once in his career, and in that 2020 game the Chiefs came out on top 32-29. Mahomes finished 26/47 for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns, but New Orleans also sacked him four times and he also lost a fumble. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce caught 8 of his 12 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown.

Like Chris Jones, you're not going to totally isolate these two, and even if Mahomes doesn't have 'top weapons' available, he's going to find a way. When he's able to escape the pocket and extend the play, it only means bad things for the opposing defense. New Orleans did a nice job on Kyle Pitts after allowing a huge game from Dallas Goedert the week before, but Kelce is going to be a big part of offensive production. The game plan there has to be airtight.

Get Others Going

Taysom Hill (ribs) is probably not going to be available for this game, which is a pretty big loss for the New Orleans offense. Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have been the production for this team, and they have to get others involved and get them to step up. It's a major issue, to say the least, and with A.T. Perry getting waived, this is a prime opportunity for rookies Mason Tipton and Bub Means. You could also say the same for Dallin Holker, who will likely be in the mix if Hill can't go. Juwan Johnson's campaign has been extremely quiet to start the year, and it would be a great time for him to blow up.

Also, you already know it's a hostile environment, so communication will be challenging. Pre-snap penalties are expected, so you just can't shoot yourself in the foot as much as you have been. We'll see if Kendre Miller (hamstring) gets back into the lineup, but it sounds like he's still got a ways to go to learn the offense and be in the football shape the team wants him to be in. Dennis Allen said that he doesn't know the impact Miller could have on the team Thursday, and then said, "I would be hopeful it would add another playmaker to our team, another guy that can be explosive for us. And I'm hopeful that's what that is, but I think we need to see him at practice, see him perform."

Close It Out (If You Have the Chance)

The Saints used to be a team that was known for being able to close out games, but that's simply not been the case these days. In back-to-back weeks, New Orleans has been able to rally late and take a lead only for the defense to falter. Of course, there's so many things that happen throughout the course of the game that factor in to the final outcome, but this is a shocking trend for Dennis Allen and company.

Since Allen has been head coach, here's a collective look at finishes the Saints have had in the final quarter and the manner in which they lost the game. Let's also not forget that New Orleans is just 8-14 in one-score games under him too, and we won't include the recent two games.

• vs. Vikings (2022) - In London, New Orleans tied the game up with a 60-yard Wil Lutz field goal at 25-25 with 1:51 to go, but Greg Joseph ended up putting Minnesota up with the go-ahead 47-yarder with 0:24 left. The Saints had one final chance to tie, but Lutz's 61-yard kick hit the crossbar and didn't go in.
• vs. Bengals (2022) - The Saints were up 26-21 with 11:07 to play, and Cincinnati ended up winning 30-26 after the shanked punt and go-ahead score from the Ja'Marr Chase via Joe Burrow 60-yard hookup with just 1:57 left.
• at Buccaneers (2022) - We all remember this game. New Orleans was all over Tom Brady and had a 16-3 lead with just 8:02 to play. Tampa got a touchdown with 3:00 to go, and most everyone remembers what happened on offense for the Saints. Brady hit the game-winner at the buzzer.
• at Packers (2023) - No one forgets this game. New Orleans was up 17-0 going into the 4th quarter and Green Bay finally got on the board with 11:00 to go. The Saints gave up the lead with 2:56 to go and ended up losing 18-17. It was the game that ended up coming back to haunt them too.
• vs. Jaguars (2023) - New Orleans tied the game after being down 24-9, getting into the end zone via Michael Thomas from Derek Carr and then converting the two-point attempt to Alvin Kamara. The Jags took the lead with 3:08 to play and the Saints had a shot to win the game. We all know how that ended up.

The bottom line is that if you're in a position to win the game late, you have to close it out. It's clearly the difference between whether or not you're in the postseason or not. The Eagles loss could come back to haunt them later in the year, and losing a divisional game to Atlanta could keep you from a NFC South title. Dennis Allen is just 1-5 in primetime and Derek Carr is just 3-14 against the Chiefs in his career, so consider their work cut out for them.