Major Keys To Watch In Saints-Browns Week 11 Matchup

Here are the biggest factors that will determine today's clash between the Saints and Browns.

Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) is tackled by New Orleans Saints defenders Cameron Jordan (94) and Demario Davis (56) / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

A 3-7 New Orleans Saints squad will try to win their second in a row when they host the 2-7 Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon. The Saints snapped a seven-game losing streak last week with a 20-17 defeat of the Atlanta Falcons, their first game under interim head coach Darren Rizzi.

New Orleans enters Week 11 with the league's 16th ranked offense and a defense ranking 28th overall. They've been battered and shorthanded on the offensive side for the better part of the last two months, with defensive absences mounting over the last few weeks. They're getting some of those players back but remain without corner Paulson Adebo along with wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.

The Saints will face a Browns team that ranks 31st in total offense and 15th in overall defense. New Orleans also squares off against a familiar face in QB Jameis Winston. After making the playoffs last season, Cleveland's season has also all but imploded with six losses in their last seven outings.

Both teams have very slim hopes to salvage their season. For either team to cling onto that slight hope, it must emerge with a victory this afternoon. Here is one critical aspect for New Orleans on each side of the ball, along with an X-Factor, that would allow for just that.

Saints Defense

Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) runs against New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56) / Chuck Cook-Imagn Images

STOP THE RUN!

On paper, Cleveland's rushing attack isn't exactly imposing. The Browns rank 28th in rushing production with only 91 yards per game and 25th in average per carry. Their three rushing scores are the fewest in the league, and they've been held to under 100 yards in six of nine games, including each of the last three contests.

Despite the numbers, Cleveland has a ton of talent in their backfield. Their top back is seven-year pro Nick Chubb, who had four straight 1,000-yard seasons between 2019 and 2022. Still recovering from a knee injury from last year, Chubb has had modest production since returning to action three games ago.

The Browns have excellent depth at this position. With Chubb out, Jerome Ford assumed the role of their lead back and has 269 yards and a 5.2 average. Bruiser D'Onta Foreman punishes defenses as a change of pace. Winston has always been a streaky quarterback, so it's imperative for the Browns to establish their running game.

Most teams facing the Saints have had an easy time on the ground. New Orleans has given up an average of 141 yards rushing per game and a 31st ranked 5.1 per carry. Since Week 3, opponents have averaged 160 yards on the ground and 5.6 per rush. Only the Carolina Panthers have given up more fantasy points to running backs.

New Orleans must get penetration up front to disrupt plays, something they've done little of this season. Doing so will help give LB Demario Davis a free path to the ball. Above all, the Saints must do a better job of tackling to minimize gains, an area where they've been atrocious in 2024.

Saints Offense

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against the Cleveland Browns / neworleanssaints.com

Play Action

For the first time since the third play of Week 3, New Orleans will have center Erik McCoy in their lineup. He's definitely a welcome addition. McCoy missed five games in 2022 along with seven games and all but three plays of an eighth this season.

Over a 14-game span with McCoy in those years, the Saints averaged 147 rushing yards, 4.7 per run, and 25.4 points per game. In the 13 outings without him over that span, New Orleans averaged 88.3 yards rushing and 3.7 per carry while averaging only 15.5 points.

A successful running game is paramount to any success the Saints will have offensively. It also opens up play-action opportunities, where Derek Carr is one of the better quarterbacks in the league.

Play-action is also an area where Cleveland's defense is vulnerable. According to Pro Football Focus, the Browns rank 30th in yards per play against play-action passes. For that to be successful, the Saints must be able to run the football.

Alvin Kamara will continue to be the key to the New Orleans offense. Kamara has 715 yards rushing, but also a team-high 51 receptions for an additional 421 yards. Without injured wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, the Saints have a woefully shorthanded receiving corps. As a result, Taysom Hill should also be a big part of today's game plan.

Numbers may not reflect it, but the Browns have a talented secondary. They also have a disruptive defensive line led by reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. To slow Garrett and give a chance for their limited receiving corps, Kamara and Hill need to have early success behind Erik McCoy and the offensive line.

X-Factor

Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston (5) throws against the Green Bay Packers / Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Jekyll and Hyde of Jameis Winston

Perhaps no team aside from Tampa Bay is more familiar with Jameis Winston than the New Orleans Saints. They faced him nine times over the first five years of his career with the Buccaneers. Over the last four seasons, Winston has been in the Saints locker room.

One of the most mercurial quarterbacks in recent memory, Winston is capable of ripping defenses apart. He's also capable of back-breaking errors to cost his team a win. Oftentimes, both Winstons will appear during a game, sometimes in the same quarter.

New Orleans ranks just 29th against the pass. Rookie CB Kool-Aid McKinstry and S Will Harris are back to join Alontae Taylor and Tyrann Mathieu on the back end. However, the Saints will be without the injured Adebo and recently traded Marshon Lattimore.

Getting to Winston with the pass rush is crucial. He'll often hold on to the ball longer than he should and definitely has a tendency to force passes into coverage. New Orleans has capable pass rushers, but have just 22 sacks and have disappeared in crucial moments.

The front seven of the Saints must create chaos. Not just to disrupt Winston, but also to strip him of a balanced running game. New Orleans has 12 interceptions this season, among the best in the league. The biggest key to this game aside from each team's running game will be the Saints' ability to limit Winston's big plays while creating a few of their own.