New Orleans Saints Quarterback Derek Carr’s 2024 Season Performance Will Be Critical In Determining His Future

Derek Carr is the "quarterback of now" for the New Orleans Saints, but in 2024 he will try to prove he can be their quarterback of the future for at least a little while longer.

Jan 7, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) reacts to a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Polarized quarterback discourse is common in the NFL. Those that spectate and those that pontificate tend to fall victim to the extremes when it comes to the position. Often times a player is referred to as either “good” or “bad” without much nuance included in the conversation.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr is not immune to this environment. He faced it in both Oakland and Las Vegas during his time with the Raiders and has not evaded the situation in New Orleans.

In 2024 however, his second year with the team, he has a chance to take control of the narrative.

A lot was made of Carr’s contract when he signed with the team last year. His $37.5 million per year deal has commonly been remarked as an overpay. The deal now ranks as a middle-of-the-road amount.

Carr ranks No. 15 in average annual value, right next to New York Jets signal caller Aaron Rodgers. Every quarterback ahead of Carr and Rodgers makes at least $40 million per year.

His total guarantees ($100 million) rank No. 14 and his $60 million of fully guaranteed funds (includes injury) rank at No. 16. Of the 35 highest-paid passers in the league, 10 are currently on rookie deals. Carr’s contract with New Orleans falls right in line with expectations with the team likely to expect him to overdeliver on his finiancial ranking.

He will only move down the rankings as new extensions get handed out. For instance, Miami Dolphins passer Tua Tagavaioloa and Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love could be in line for new deals sooner than later.

Last year, Carr closed out the year with an impressive final five games. After throwing multiple touchdowns in only three of the first twelve games, Carr closed out the year with four multi-touchdown games in the last five contests. In those games he also led the league in completion percentage (74%) and passer rating (118.9) and ranked second in touchdown to interception ratio at 14-2.

He finished the year No. 13 across the league in passing yards, No. 10 in passing touchdowns, No. 10 is passer rating and No. 6 in completion percentage.

For the yardage total, the Saints did have to play from behind quite a bit in 2023. More than they would have liked. But for stats like completion percentage and throwing only a pair of picks down the stretch, there is some momentum to build off of going in to the 2024 season.

It did not hurt that four of the Saints final five opponents were hapless teams like the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. That is a far cry from the way the teams opens things up this year.

While they open the year against the Panthers, they will then compete with teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs early. They will also travel to take on the new-look Falcons with newly-signed quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Those early challenges will make it all the more impactful if Carr and the Saints offense can pick up with the momentum that closed out 2023.

The Saints are expecting to have an improved offense this season. They moved on from offensive coordinator Peter Carmichael, replacing him with San Francisco 49ers passing-game specialist Klint Kubiak. The Saints’ new hire was one of the more desired names in the offseason coaching carousel.

The trick will be insuring it does not take long for the team to settle in to its new scheme. Last year, the growing pains could be seen through the first twelve games. That cannot be the case in 2024.

The improved system should also bring about a more effective run game and elevated offensive line play. Both will be helpful in taking steps forward. Or at least provide what is needed for the players to be in the best positions to succeed. That includes Carr.

Through OTAs and minicamps, Kubiak’s approach has been heavy with pre-snap motion and a variety of play action deployments. Both of which play into Carr’s strengths as a passer. The simplified playcalling longuage sure does not hurt either.

All of these shifts in the offense will not guarantee success. But they do look to provide the foundation needed for that success to be more attainable. The rest is up to Carr and his teammates.

For Carr, his vested interest in quickly realizing the team’s new potential should be palpable. In an NFL landscape wherein contract are rarely lived out in their entirety, Carr is among the league's status of quarterbacks that will be asked to prove it year-by-year.

The team may have restructured his deal this offseason, but they have not prohibited themselves from moving on to another option in 2025 if they feel it is necessary. Designating Carr as a post-June 1 cut next offseason may result in more than $21 million in dead cap, but it would also open up $30 million. A move that would be hardly surprising if things do not come to fruition this year. Especially considering the lack of patience the NFL has shown toward quarterbacks in particular. While it would not surprise, this is far from the ideal path that the Saints are hoping to take.

The fact of the matter is that every quarterback, aside from the small group of the elite, is fighting for their NFL future. Carr is no different, especially once crossing the 32-year-old threshold. Getting another extension is not a given for the more experienced passers in the league, especially when there are two young passers waiting in the wings in rookie contracts.

But Carr can avoid all of that conversation by continuing where he left off in 2023. If he bridges the gap this season, he will be set up for extended success with the Saints. It also will not all be on his shoulders. The weapons and protection around him will need to produce consistently well.

But while that is true, narratives do not typically recognize such nuance. If Carr wants to change the narrative around him, or if the Saints themselves would like to see it change, the veteran quarterback will have to do it himself with a stellar 2024 performance.