New Orleans Saints Wideout A.T. Perry Primed For Breakout Season In 2024 Second-Year Campaign

After a strong end of the 2023 NFL season, New Orleans Saints wide receiver A.T. Perry is headed for breakout territory in 2024.

Aug 20, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver A.T. Perry (17) is tackled by Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Ja'Sir Taylor (36) and safety JT Woods (22) during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The question of second-year slump or second-year spike is always a volitile one for players coming back from their rookie seasons. At least, that is usually the case. With New Orleans Saints wide receiver A.T. Perry, expectations of growth may be a little more clear cut. Perry looks to be in good position for a breakout season in 2024.

Every breakout players needs three things to go their way. They need the talent first and foremost. After that, momentum is a big difference-maker. The final ingredient in the breakout gumbo comes down to opportunity. Perry checks all three boxes going into his second year.

The former Wake Forest wideout proved that his talents translate just find to the league when he was thrust into a much larger role in Week 12 against the Minnesota Vikings. Going into that game, Perry was active for only the third time of the year, had played only 24 snaps on offense and have no targets to his name yet. That all changed when veteran wide receiver Michael Thomas went down with an injury just two snaps into the Saints' first offensive possession.

Two weeks before this game, Perry had only taken 8 snaps against the Indianapolis Colts. The next week 16 against the Chicago Bears. Against Minnesota, his snap count suddenly spiked to 56. He immediately showed the value he could bring in that game catch two of his four targets for 38 yards and a massive touchdown catch over tight coverage in the corner of the endzone.

Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver A.T. Perry (17) catches a touchdown pass over Minnesota Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. (7) during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

A sixth-round pick in 2023, Perry siply did not start with a lot of chances. In fact, he had been inactive for the early portion of the season. Including the Vikings game, Perry would go on for 8-straight games with at least one reception, falling below 30 yards receiving just twice, and reeling in four touchdown catches on just 18 targets. A full third of his receptions in 2023 were for scores.

Perry proved his talent was as expected coming out of college. The wideout was expected to be a Day 2 draft pick that offseason, but fell late into Day 3 before the Saints traded away tight end Adam Trautman and a pick to move up and select him. Perry stated during his introductory Zoom call that he was told he had dropped in the draft do to "character stuff".

The news confused Perry as well as many who had covered his collegiate career. But there were no signs of such concerns his rookie year, as evidence by the outstanding close he strung together over the season.

Not only did he prove his talents, but he also built a ton of momentum. Closing up his rookie year with 12 catches, 246 receiving yards and four touchdown catches. Per Pro Football Reference, his performance over those eight games extrapolated over 17 games would be: 26 catches, 523 receiving yards and 8 touchdown catches. Now, 8 scores would be a lot to expect with another dynamic duo of wide receiver, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, beside him. However, otherwise doubling his production from 2023 would be a good trend. Not quite breakout material, though.

Where Perry instead gets the final piece of the puzzle, opportunity, comes from elsewhere. It comes from the departure of Thomas. With Thomas no longer with the team, the 64 targets he received are now on the table and Perry is in position to claim them to himself. It will not be easy with new veterans like Cedrick Wilson and Equinimeous St. Brown now competing among others. But the opportunity is most certainly there.

Breaking Perry's 2023 season down on a per target basis could give a better understanding of what his 2024 output could look out in a breakout context. The wideout caught 66.7% of his targets and averaged 13.6 receiving yards and 0.22 touchdown receptions per target as well. Applying those numbers to just 60 targets gives context to the breakout opportunity ahead for him landing about 40 receptions, 816 receiving yards and 13 touchdown catches.

Again, 13 touchdowns is a little dramatic. It will be hard to maintain a 25% touchdown to reception rate with a higher volume of targets and more expansive role between the 20s. Nonetheless, if Perry gets that level of opportunity with even half those scores in 2024 after proving he has the talent and momentum on his side from his rookie year, the 6-foot-3 pass-catcher could have a major impact to match his role as a second-year breakout player. There are very few causes for concern of a sophomore slump.

The one thing that could get in the way of this chance for Perry is the team's commitment to the run game. Head coach Dennis Allen said that the team will use more two-tight end and two-back sets this year. That would mean only two wide receivers on the field at times. This could be the one factor that cuts into the opportunity necessity for a breakout. But Perry can safeguard that this offseason by winning the team's top X-receiver role. Thereby potentially guaranteeing that he is on the field for the majority of those two-receiver snaps. The path to a breakout year is already underway for Perry, and the trail is about to heat up.