NFL Analyst Predicts A 'Mediocre' Season For Derek Carr And The New Orleans Saints

The NFL analysts are predicting an average-to-subpar performance for Derek Carr in 2024.

Dec 10, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

NFL analysts predict a bleak season for Dennis Allen, Derek Carr, and the New Orleans Saints before their first game against Carolina on Sunday, Sept. 9. No matter how many obituaries and tombstones are being etched for the team, there will be an improvement from 2023.

Most national preseason power rankings place New Orleans below No. 14, reflecting their final draft positioning from last season. Yahoo's Frank Schwab's headline, "No. 24 New Orleans Saints are stuck in boring mediocrity," humiliated a team that has undergone a strategic makeover. Still, its core has plenty of talent on the roster.

Last year's 9-8 record wasn't bad or good, just average. New Orleans missed the tie-breaker with Tampa Bay. This allowed Tampa Bay to become NFC South champions, which didn't help Dennis Allen. Most of all, it didn't help Derek Carr.

Dec 10, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) reacts to being sacked by Carolina Panthers linebacker Frankie Luvu (49) during the second half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

DEREK CARR: THE BAD AND MEDIOCRE

In his first season with the Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield changed his career and turned his success into a three-year, $100 million deal. This contract includes $50 million guaranteed and could be worth nearly $115 million with incentives.

The Saints' season was disappointing compared to Mayfield's new contract and Derek Carr's four-year, $150 million deal with $100 million guaranteed. During the offseason, the team and Carr restructured his contract to save the club almost $23 million.

Fans and analysts still worry about the quarterback's future as the leader of the New Orleans Saints. The Bucs were expected to finish last in the division, but Mayfield helped them win. In contrast, Carr did not have the same impact on the Saints.

Also, the offensive line didn't help Carr's first campaign through the first seven weeks. Carolina, New England, Houston, and Jacksonville drew up double-digit blitzes on the Saints quarterback. Those same teams were responsible for 17.6% to 20.8% of bad passes.

The Jags were the only team to create over ten pressures on Carr this season. This forced him to make 11 bad throws, leading to a 34.6 QBR.

Jan 7, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) reacts to a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

DEREK CARR: THE GOOD - AFTER JACKSONVILLE

Carr's statistics in his first season with New Orleans were good. He passed for 25 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and 3,878 yards, but something was missing from the Saints' offense. Despite Pete Carmichael's intricate game plans, the team would finally get rolling midseason.

At one point, many Saints fans clamored for Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill to assume the starter's role. Still, Dennis Allen dogmatically was loyal to Carr and Carmichael.

After the 31-24 Week 7 defeat at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the locker room felt somber. Several stars showed their frustrations. But, Derek Carr and the offense began to improve following this game.

Carr led New Orleans to a 6-4 finish, completing 72.35% of his passes for 2,278 yards and 19 touchdowns. The winnable games against Atlanta and Minnesota in Weeks 10 and 11 significantly caused the Saints to miss the postseason. Carr got injured against the Vikings. Jameis Winston tried his best to save the game, but the loss damaged the Saints' NFC chances.

His sacks slightly declined to 13 from the 18 the offensive line surrendered from Weeks 1 to 7.

Nov 5, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) smiles for the camera after the game against the Chicago Bears at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

DEREK CARR: THE FUTURE?

No one has created AI software that can predict Derek Carr's 2024-25 wins and losses like Nostradamus or Voodoo queen Madame Marie Laveau. Hiring Klint Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator and Andrew Janocko as Carr's quarterback coach will improve the offense.

Carr needs help in the receiving corps. Specifically, Chris Olave must show he is a consistent "Receiver 1." The other unknown will be if A.T. Perry or another receiver will assume the possession receiver role. We already know what Rashid Shaheed delivers downfield, but can he remain healthy? Has New Orleans addressed what Carr requires to be successful as the franchise quarterback? Or will it be more of the Good, Bad, and Mediocre in the Big Easy?

We shall see.

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