Saints Come Up Short on Deshaun Watson, QB Outlook Cloudy

After missing out in a trade for Texans QB Deshaun Watson, where does New Orleans go from here in their quarterback search?

Former Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson is on the move, but not to the New Orleans Saints in spite of their best efforts.

The controversial Watson shockingly changed gears and told Houston he'd waive his no-trade clause to be dealt to the Cleveland Browns.  Terms of the pending trade have not yet been disclosed.

New Orleans offered an official trade proposal for the 26-year-old Watson on Sunday, March 13. Team representatives, including Head Coach Dennis Allen and General Manager Mickey Loomis, met with Watson on Monday and again on Wednesday. 

With Watson now gone and Russell Wilson traded to Denver, the biggest question for the Saints remains at the quarterback position. Where will New Orleans go from here?

Back to Plan A?

New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2) passes downfield against the New York Giants. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY

Seven-year pro Jameis Winston opened the 2021 season as the New Orleans starter. Faced with the daunting task of replacing retired legend Drew Brees, Winston got off to a slow start statistically. However, he avoided the crippling turnovers that plagued the first five years of his career with Tampa Bay.

The 28-year-old Winston seemed to have a firm grasp of a short-handed New Orleans offense before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 8. He averaged under 186 yards passing in his first six starts, but threw for 14 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions.

Winston has flashed the abilities that made him the top overall selection in the 2015 draft throughout his career. Remember that he's only two years removed from a 5,000-yard passing season, one of only nine quarterbacks in NFL history with such an accomplishment. He has the arm strength and accuracy to hit every throw, underrated mobility, and toughness in the pocket.

With Pete Carmichael returning as the offensive coordinator, the Saints offense will have many of the same concepts as they've had since 2009. Winston has been with the team for the last two years and is familiar with that system. However, he hasn't yet run the offense with All-Pro WR Michael Thomas, a fully stocked receiving corps, or an intact offensive line.

Even his biggest critics couldn't overlook Winston's production. As long as he continues to avoid mind-numbing mistakes, he can undoubtedly be a playoff quarterback.

With other teams like Indianapolis and Seattle still looking for a quarterback, it'll take more than the one-year contract that the Saints signed Winston with in the last two seasons.  The Colts, along with Saints, have expressed interest in signing Winston this offseason. 

Figure it'll take at least a three-year contract to sign Winston, with a possible yearly average between $25 and $30 million. With the Saints courtship of Deshaun Watson and the potential interest of other teams, did they lose their chance at retaining Jameis Winston?

Fall-back Option?

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) throws the ball against the New Orleans Saints. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is another signal caller expected to be on the move this offseason. The 49ers used the third overall draft pick on QB Trey Lance last spring and are expected to turn over starting duties to him in 2022.

Garoppolo won't attract the same type of compensation that Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, but there's a definite market for him. He's led San Francisco to two NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl in the last three years.

Even though Garoppolo has a limited upside and reputation for struggling in the biggest games, he's a proven winner with a 38-16 record as a starter. He has a career completion percentage of nearly 68% and has thrown 71 touchdown passes against 38 interceptions.

Garoppolo had a strong team around him in San Francisco on both sides of the ball. In New Orleans, he'd have that same type of squad.

The 30-year-old Garoppolo is entering the last year of his contract and would count around $27 million against the salary cap this season.

If the compensation the Saints would have to give up is reasonable, Garoppolo could be a viable option with the potential to extend a long-term deal to if he plays well or go back to the drawing board in 2023 if he doesn't.

Panic Button?

Dec 31, 2017; Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) drops back to pass against the Jaguars. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Beyond Winston, the free-agent market for quarterbacks was woefully thin. It became even thinner on Monday, when former starters Teddy Bridgewater and Mitchell Trubisky signed short-term deals with the Dolphins and Steelers.

Marcus Mariota was the second overall draft choice behind Jameis Winston in 2015. He led the Titans to the playoffs in 2017 and engineered a first-round upset of Kansas City. Outside of that, he had a nondescript four years in Tennessee. He’s been a backup for the last two seasons with the Raiders.

Mariota, 28, is an outstanding athlete with questionable accuracy. He’s completed only 62 8% of his career attempts and is just 29-32 as a starter. Mariota averaged 216 yards/game with Tennessee and has thrown 77 touchdowns against 45 interceptions in his career.

Andy Dalton has the most experience of any potential free-agent signal caller with 11 NFL seasons. He was 50-26-1 as a starter over his first five seasons with Cincinnati, taking his team to the playoffs five times. Since 2016, he owns just a 27-43-1 record as a starter.

The 34-year-old Dalton can be a productive pocket passer able to decisively go through progressions when given the protection. He’s averaged nearly 240 yards/game in his career and has 226 touchdown passes against 135 interceptions.

Once a promising backup to Tom Brady, then Andrew Luck, the career trajectory of Jacoby Brissett flattened. He was a full-time starter for two seasons in Indianapolis before starting five contests as a backup in Miami last season.

The athletic Brissett presents a threat on the move, but never developed as a pocket passer. He’s barely completed 60% of his passes and averaged 208 yards/game while throwing 36 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

Jameis Winston has proven that he can be a productive quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo has proven that he has enough ability to guide a winning team in the right system. Mariota, Dalton, and Brissett provide no such assurances.

If New Orleans has to settle for signing any of those three, they would likely draft a quarterback in the first round for just the second time in their 56-year history. That's another big gamble in a quarterback rookie class considered to be below average by several scouts. A free-agent signee would likely be just a short-term caretaker at the position until the draftee was ready.

The Saints have played a high stakes game of ''Quarterback Roulette'' so far this offseason. Their refusal to negotiate a long-term deal with Winston during the year or franchise tag him before free agency led to a hard push for the dynamic Watson.

Once missing out on Watson, a playoff-ready New Orleans roster is taking a heavy gamble that it could re-sign Winston. If they can't, they are rolling the dice that their talent on both sides of the ball can make up for inferior talent behind center.