Saints Task Simple, But Not Easy

For the Saints to avoid missing the postseason for the third straight year, the scenario is simple -- but not easy.

An Atlanta Falcons win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday dropped the New Orleans Saints to third place in the NFC South. The Atlanta result has little to do with the Saints fate over the rest of the season. It was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win over the Jacksonville Jaguars later on Sunday that was much more damaging to New Orleans postseason chances.

However, it's now much more clear what needs to happen if the Saints are to go to the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 campaign. 

The 7-8 New Orleans Saints play at the 8-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers next Sunday, then host the Atlanta Falcons the following week to end the regular season. Because of their own blunders, there is only one realistic scenario for the Saints to make the playoffs this season. 

New Orleans must beat both Tampa Bay and Atlanta to finish the year with a 9-8 record. Additionally, the Buccaneers must lose their season finale at the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are 2-13 after their Week 16 loss to the Green Bay Packers. 

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws against the Los Angeles Rams. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

If that scenario plays out, the Saints would be the NFC South champion. If the Saints lose either of their last two contests, they will officially (mercifully?) eliminated from postseason contention. There is no other scenario where New Orleans can win their division.  

If the Saints beat both the Buccaneers and Falcons, Tampa Bay must lose to Carolina. Otherwise, the Buccaneers would win a tiebreaker over New Orleans based on a better record against common opponents. A Saints sweep of their final two games would put them at 9-8, with the Buccaneers finishing at 8-9 and the Falcons also finishing at no better than 8-9.

New Orleans is not officially eliminated from wild-card contention. Again, their only hope for that extremely slim chance is to win both remaining games, then get a monumental amount of outside help. Even then, head-to-head losses against fellow playoff hopefuls Green Bay, Minnesota, and Los Angeles makes this scenario highly unlikely. 

New Orleans Saints defensive end Carl Granderson (96) and linebacker Demario Davis (56) tackle Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28). © Jenna Watson/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

So the Saints path to the playoffs is crystal clear. The chances of it happening is a different story. New Orleans has won back-to-back games three times this season, but have only done so four times in two years under coach Dennis Allen. In those two years, the Saints are just 4-6 against NFC South opponents.

Under Allen, the Saints  also have a 1-13 record against teams that are .500 or better at the time they play them. Tampa Bay will be 8-7 when they play New Orleans next week. The Falcons would be 8-8 going into the year's final game if they win their game at the Chicago Bears next Sunday. 

New Orleans has dug their own hole with poor coaching and poor play. To avoid missing the postseason for a third consecutive year, they'll now need to overcome their own deficiencies and still need some help.