Saints Updated Playoff Scenarios - Week 17

A Christmas Eve victory in Cleveland keeps New Orleans in the NFC South title hunt. However, their margin for error is gone and they'll still need some help. Here are their postseason scenarios.

The New Orleans Saints improved their record to 6-9 with a victory at the Cleveland Browns on Saturday. It's the first time the Saints have won back-to-back games this season. 

The Saints got no help from the Arizona Cardinals, who blew a lead and giving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a victory on Sunday night. This significantly reduces the Saints chances.

New Orleans plays at the 13-2 Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday. They'll wrap up the season at home against the Carolina Panthers, currently 6-9, on January 8. The Saints have not won three in a row since a nine-game winning streak between weeks 4 and 13 of the 2020 season. 

By virtue of Carolina's win against the Detroit Lions on Saturday, a loss by the Saints against the Eagles would eliminate them from playoff contention. The Saints would also be eliminated by a Buccaneers win over the Panthers next week. 

New Orleans has lost at Philadelphia in each of the last two years. However, there remains only one scenario for the Saints to win the NFC South, which is their only route into the playoffs. 

1. Win their final two games against Philadelphia and Carolina. 

PLUS

2. Tampa Bay must lose BOTH of their remaining 2 games (the Buccaneers host the Panthers in Week 17, then are at the Atlanta Falcons to finish the year)

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) blocks Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward (21) and safety John Johnson III (43). Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

If this scenario plays out, New Orleans would be the NFC South champs at 8-9. The Buccaneers and Panthers would each finish at 7-10.

Tampa Bay won at Arizona on Sunday night, so they currently lead the division with a 7-8 record. The Panthers and Saints are second at 6-9.

New Orleans would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Buccaneers, who swept them this season. The Saints would also lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Panthers, even if they beat them in Week 18. Carolina would win that tiebreaker based on either a better divisional record if they beat Tampa Bay next week. 

For those who wondered, the Eagles have plenty of motivation for beating the Saints. 

Philadelphia has clinched a playoff berth, but needs to win one of their final two games to win the NFC East and clinched the conference's Number 1 seed and a first-round postseason bye. Plus, more New Orleans losses would mean a higher first-round pick for the Eagles in the 2023 draft, which was obtained from the Saints in a trade last spring. 

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