Saints Playoff Scenarios - Week 18

Here is what must happen for the Saints to qualify for the NFL playoffs.

New Orleans Saints postseason hopes are still alive as they head into the final week of the regular season. A 23-13 road victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday evened the Saints record at 8-8. It also kept alive two different scenarios for New Orleans to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2020-21 campaign. 

First, the Saints must beat the 7-9 Atlanta Falcons next Sunday. A loss puts them watching postseason games from home for the third consecutive year. If New Orleans beats Atlanta, who they lost to in Week 12, they'll still need some additional help to continue their season. 

There is one scenario where the Saints actually win the NFC South championship. The other scenario would have New Orleans taking the final NFC wild-card spot. 

SCENARIO #1 

NFC SOUTH CHAMPION (4th Seed)

Nov 26, 2023; Taysom Hill (7) of the New Orleans Saints runs against the Atlanta Falcons. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY

• Saints beat Falcons 

• Buccaneers lose at Carolina Panthers 

This is the most ideal outcome for the Saints. It would mean a home playoff game in the first round, though it would be against either the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles. This also means that New Orleans fate would not be affected by any other game other than their own and Bucs-Panthers.

Unfortunately, the Saints need Tampa Bay to lose to a 2-14 Carolina squad. On the bright side, the Panthers have played several close games lately. This includes a narrow 21-18 loss at Tampa Bay at the beginning of December. 

If the Saints and Buccaneers both win, each team would finish 9-8. However, Tampa Bay would win the NFC South based off a better record than New Orleans against common opponents and a better record in conference games. If both the Saints and Bucs lose, than the Atlanta Falcons would win the division at 8-9 because of a better record against common opponents among the three teams.

SCENARIO #2

WILD CARD (7th Seed)

Sep 24, 2023; New Orleans Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) runs past Green Bay Packers punter Daniel Whelan (19) to score a touchdown on a punt return. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

• Saints beat Falcons 

• Buccaneers beat Panthers 

• Seattle Seahawks lose at Arizona Cardinals 

• Green Bay Packers lose at Chicago Bears 

This scenario would only apply if New Orleans beats Atlanta and Tampa Bay beats the Panthers. The Saints would still have slim hopes of the last wild-card spot, but would need a ton of help.

Seattle, currently 8-8, would need to lose at the 4-12 Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a road upset of Philadelphia and have shown flashes of explosiveness since the return of QB Kyler Murray. If the Seahawks and Saints both win and finish at 9-8, then Seattle would take the tiebreaker based off better conference record. 

Green Bay, also 8-8, must lose at 7-9 Chicago. The Bears have won four of their last five games and have played each opponent tough over the last half of the year. However, they've also lost nine straight meetings to the Packers (including in this year's season opener). In fact, Chicago is just 4-26 against the Packers dating back to the 2009 season. They've lost 13 of their last 14 meetings against Green Bay at home.

New Orleans held a 17-0 fourth quarter lead over the Packers back in Week 3 at Green Bay. The Packers would score 18 unanswered points over the last 13 minutes and took a 18-17 victory when Saints K Blake Grupe missed a 46-yard field goal in the final minute. That head-to-head victory gives Green Bay the tiebreaker advantage if these teams both finish with 9-8 records.

If this unlikely scenario plays out, then the Saints would be on the road for the first round of the playoffs. They'd most likely play at the winner of the NFC East — either Dallas or Philadelphia. There is an outside chance that the Detroit Lions grab the second seed and would therefore host the NFC's seventh seed in the first round.