Saints Rookie QB Rattler To Lead Battered Offense Against Reeling Bucs Defense

With rookie Spencer Rattler now behind center, here's how the Saints offense matches up against Tampa Bay's defense in a critical NFC South showdown.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

After losing three straight and playing consecutive games on the road, the New Orleans Saints (2-3) return home this Sunday to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2). It's an important NFC South matchup for both teams in a division that looks to be a tight race throughout the year.

New Orleans scored 91 points in their first two games. Since then, they've been held to under 14 points twice in three weeks. Worsening matters is the fact that they're dealing with an incredible amount of injuries, especially on the offensive side.

Here are the offensive players that have already been ruled out of Sunday's game because of injury.

• Derek Carr, QB
• Taysom Hill
• Erik McCoy, C (IR)
• Cesar Ruiz, RG

Running back Kendre Miller and LG Lucas Patrick are also listed as game-time decisions for the Saints, who are giving rookie QB Spencer Rattler his first NFL start.

New Orleans faces off against a respected Tampa Bay defense, but one coming off giving up 36 points and 550 yards in a loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

The Buccaneers are dealing with their own issues in the secondary. Safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) and Jordan Whitehead (groin) are both listed as game-time decisions, while CB Christian Izien has been ruled out for this game.

Here's how Rattler and the New Orleans offense matches up against Tampa Bay's defensive unit in this crucial showdown.

Saints Offense

Points = 4th (28/game)
Total Yards = 17th (323.2)
Passing = 21st (196)
Rushing = 10th (127.2)
3rd Downs = 2nd
Red Zone = 1st

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

During training camp and preseason, Spencer Rattler flashed the impressive physical tools that made him one of the most productive passers in the SEC while at South Carolina. As a rookie with zero experience and a ravaged offensive line, expect coordinator Klint Kubiak to have a very simplistic game plan for Rattler.

The Saints absolutely need to run the ball. Not only is Kubiak's system predicated on a successful ground game, it'll help protect their rookie passer. Unfortunately, the continued absence of Taysom Hill and likely Miller also limits their options.

With a shorthanded backfield, Jamaal Williams will get some touches, but Alvin Kamara continues to be the focal point of the entire offense. Dealing with a rib injury, Kamara is still among the league's leaders in yards from scrimmage.

Kamara has 388 rushing yards and five scores while averaging 4.3 per carry. He also has 214 yards receiving and a touchdown on a team-high 23 catches.

Early on, Kubiak was doing a terrific job of getting Kamara off tackle and in space. It's where he's at his best and something the offense will have to return to focusing on.

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New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) scores a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) scores a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Rattler will have a few playmakers at wide receiver. Chris Olave has caught 22 of his 28 targets for a team-high 275 yards. Olave has the potential of a top-tier receiver. To do so, he must eliminate stretches where he disappears from the offense.

Rashid Shaheed actually leads the Saints with 34 targets. He's caught 19 of those for a team-best 338 yards and three scores. While Shaheed has tremendous deep ball ability, his underrated route precision and open field elusiveness makes him a threat at every level. Both wideouts are very good runners, so Kubiak may also choose to use them out of the backfield in some situations.

It would be wise to find different ways to get Olave and Shaheed involved. Nobody else but those two and Kamara have provided any kind of threat whatsoever.

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) catches a touchdown pass against the Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) catches a touchdown pass against the Carolina Panthers / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Wideouts Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson, and Bub Means have a combined 11 targets, 6 catches, and 28 yards. The fact that they've produced zero production has caused the offense to spin it's wheels when an opponent controls Kamara, Olave, or Shaheed.

New Orleans tight ends have been little help. Foster Moreau has two touchdowns but only seven catches for 58 yards. He's a valuable blocker but little more than an occasional short yardage receiving weapon.

Juwan Johnson was expected to flourish in a tight end-friendly Kubiak system. However, Johnson has been largely invisible until his five catches against the Chiefs.

For the year, Johnson has nine receptions for 70 yards. With his athleticism and route ability, he's the most likely option to step up as a complementary weapon with Taysom Hill sidelined.

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) breaks a tackle from Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Christian Izien (29)
New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) breaks a tackle from Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Christian Izien (29) / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

While the backs and pass catchers need to make plays for their quarterback, it's on the offensive line to make Spencer Rattler's life a bit easier in his first start. Injuries and a performance regression at the position is a big reason why the offense has struggled of late.

Connor McGovern, signed just nine days ago, is likely to get the start at center with McCoy and Lemieux out. He'll be the fourth starting center for the team this season. Lucas Patrick, who had been the starting left guard, moved to center last week until moving back to guard because of a putrid performance from Nick Saldiveri. Additionally, Patrick is dealing with an injury that leaves him as a game-time decision.

Landon Young has replaced Ruiz at right guard and also had awful outings against Kansas City and Atlanta the last two weeks. Tackles Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning have had run blocking and pass protection issues on the edge after terrific starts. However, interior problems have left them both in more one-on-one matchups or impossible help situations.

Buccaneers Defense

Points = 17th (22.8/game)
Yards = 30th (378.2)
Passing = 28th (258.4)
Rushing = 16th (119.8)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David (54) tackles New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David (54) tackles New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) / Chuck Cook-Imagn Images

Tampa Bay has undergone several changes along their front seven. One constant is veteran LB Lavonte David, who remains one of the top defenders in the game. Now in his 13th year, David is second on the team in tackles and has two sacks to go along with an interception and his typically strong run defense.

After giving up at least 135 yards on the ground in their first three games, the Buccaneers have been noticeably better in that area the last two weeks. Linebacker K.J. Britt is a solid complement to David inside. However, opponents are having their best rushing success against Tampa Bay's edge.

Outside linebackers Yaya Diaby, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, and Chris Braswell are primarily pass rushers. All three have been moved around fairly easily by physical run blockers. Anthony Nelson is the biggest of their four players at that position and is probably the best run defender.

Nelson also has two sacks while Diaby, Tryon-Shoyinka, and Braswell have a combined two sacks. However, all four have a collective 16 QB hits and several pressures because of their speed off the edge.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) pressures New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) pressures New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Logan Hall is among a trio of high draft picks on the defensive line that provide a big-bodied presence. Hall leads the Bucs with three sacks, 6 QB hits, and has played much better against the run.

Calijah Kancey has yet to play this season because of injury but should be in the lineup today. He's the most explosive of the team's defensive linemen. William Gholston and Greg Gaines provide a quality rotation.

The depth of that rotation up front allows the Bucs to keep DT/NT Vita Vea fresh. Vea is a massive inside presence that doesn't fill up a stat sheet. However, he's crucial to shutting down interior runs and is an underrated pass rusher that demands at least a double-team on every snap.

It's been feast-or-famine for Tampa Bay defensive backs this season. They've held two quarterbacks to under 190 yards passing, but Jared Goff threw for 307 yards and Kirk Cousins an eye-popping 509.

Eight different receivers have at least 65 yards against Tampa Bay coverage, including three 100-yard outings. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 67% of their throws against the Buccaneers with 6.3 yards per attempt.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) runs back an interception against the Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) runs back an interception against the Tennessee Titans / Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The Buccaneers have perhaps the best safety tandem in the NFL with Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jordan Whitehead. Winfield (foot) is likely to suit up against the Saints. Whitehead (groin) is a bigger question but was trending towards being able to play late in the week. Both are versatile playmakers in slot coverage, deep support, and against the run.

Rookie nickleback Tykee Smith has also been impressive, but this defense is much more lethal with all three players in the lineup. This is especially the case with S/CB Christian Izien (groin) unavailable today.

Third-year CB Zyon McCollum has one of the team's three interceptions and leads the Bucs with eight passes broken up. He's allowed just 50% completion percentage when targeted, but has surrendered three scores and 13 yards per completion.

Sixth-year CB Jamel Dean is a proven playmaker who is off to a slow start in 2024 with a 70% completion percentage when targeted. The Buccaneers typically don't play a lot of press-man coverage. Aside from Dean and McCollum, two physical defenders, they have a thin cornerback unit and often rely on their safeties against multiple receiver sets.

What to Watch

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

This should be a very simple game plan for the Saints to protect Rattler: Kamara, Kamara, and more Kamara with easy passes for Rattler early to build some confidence.

With backup interior linemen, no Taysom Hill, and Tampa Bay's bulk in the middle it would be sheer insanity to force Kamara on inside runs often. Getting him off-tackle would be the wisest. This is where he's at his best and where the Buccaneers have been most vulnerable.

Tampa Bay has also had a lot of trouble containing backs in the passing game. Kamara is the best receiving back in the NFL. He also had a ton of success as a pass catcher against the Buccaneers earlier in his career.

Expect Klint Kubiak to design early passing plays to get Rattler into a rhythm and build confidence. These will likely be throws where Rattler gets the ball out of his hand quickly off one or two immediate reads.

Protection could be an issue, especially on the inside. Screens to Kamara is an obvious solution, but Tampa Bay will likely prepare for those. Screens and quick throws to Olave and Shaheed would also work well, especially if the Buccaneers play off-ball coverage.

Olave has had success against Tampa throughout his short career. Long-developing routes may be asking for trouble, but that doesn't rule out deep shots on timing routes to either speedy wideout.

It's widely expected that Kamara will be an even bigger part of the game plan than usual. If Olave, Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson can get quick separation for their quarterback, this offense can get into a rhythm. Doing so will also prevent the Buccaneers from stacking defenders at the line, thereby creating more space for Kamara as a runner and receiver.


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Bob Rose
BOB ROSE

Covers the New Orleans Saints as a senior writer for the Saints News Network.  Co-Host of the Bayou Blitz Podcast.