Saints Scenarios for Top Seed in the NFC Playoffs

New Orleans still has a chance at the top seed and a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. Here are the scenarios to hope for and two games to watch closely today.

Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season continues today with eleven games on the schedule. The New Orleans Saints kicked off the holiday weekend with a 52-33 pounding of the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day. 

The win clinched the NFC South title, but also kept them in contention for the conference's top seed with one week to go in the regular season. The 11-4 Saints wrap up their regular season with a road game against the 4-10 Carolina Panthers next Sunday.

New Orleans will watch two games with close interest today, contests that directly affect their playoff positioning. The 10-4 Seattle Seahawks host the 9-5 Los Angeles Rams at 4:25 Eastern Time this afternoon with the NFC West championship on the line.

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With a win, the Seahawks clinch that division and also keep themselves alive for the NFC's top seed. At 8:20 EST tonight, the 11-3 Green Bay Packers host the 10-4 Tennessee Titans. The Packers will hold the number one spot in the NFC even if they lose tonight because of a 37-30 victory over New Orleans in Week Three.

No matter what happens today, there are a few scenarios where the Saints could slide into the top slot in the NFC. The number 1 seed means home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but is also the only spot to get a first-round bye because of a 7th playoff team added in each conference this season. Here is who New Orleans, Green Bay, and Seattle play in their Week 17 season finale.

• Saints at Carolina Panthers (4-10)
• Packers at Chicago Bears (7-7)
• Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (6-9)

SCENARIO 1: NEW ORLEANS WINS AT CAROLINA + GREEN BAY LOSES BOTH OF THEIR LAST TWO GAMES

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This is the easiest path, but perhaps the least likely. It would leave the Saints with a 12-4 record and the Packers at 11-5, nullifying Green Bay's head-to-head win over New Orleans. Even if this happens and Seattle wins their last two to finish 12-4, the Saints would still be awarded the number one seed because of a better conference record. The Saints would finish with a 10-2 conference record in this scenario, while the Seahawks would have a 9-3 NFC record.

SCENARIO 2: NEW ORLEANS WINS AT CAROLINA + GREEN BAY BEATS TENNESSEE BUT LOSES AT CHICAGO + SEATTLE WINS BOTH OF THEIR LAST TWO GAMES

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This scenario would have the Saints, Packers, and Seahawks all finish with 12-4 records. A three-way tie would nullify Green Bay's head-to-head win over the Saints and would require conference records to be used as the next tiebreaker. This scenario requires that the Packers beat the Titans, an AFC team, and loses to the Bears in Week 17, while Seattle must win both of their last two. 

That would leave the Saints with a 10-2 conference record, with both the Packers and Seahawks finishing with 9-3 records against NFC opponents. If Seattle loses to the Rams and Green Bay defeats Tennessee, that will clinch the top seed for the Packers no matter what happens next week.

Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY

New Orleans coach Sean Payton could choose to rest 41-Yr old quarterback Drew Brees and several starters against the Panthers next Sunday if the Packers clinch the NFC's top seed this week. That would give most of his players a de facto bye before they host their first playoff game on January 9th or 10th. 

However, there is also a possibility that New Orleans will need to beat Carolina to guarantee a number 2 seed. That would not only make a difference in their first-round playoff matchup but would also depend on whether the Saints would host or travel to either Seattle or Los Angeles for a potential division round game.

These are scenarios we will explore after the outcome of today's games starting Monday, along with previewing the Saints season finale against the Panthers. In the meantime, stay tuned to the Saints News Network for all New Orleans Saints news.