Saints vs. Carolina Showdown: Can the Offense Ignite Early?

A look at how a new Saints offensive system matches up against tons of new faces on the Carolina defense

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws on the run against the Carolina Panthers / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Opening week of the 2024-25 NFL regular season will include a matchup between two division rivals. The New Orleans Saints will host the Carolina Panthers in an NFC South clash on early Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams are trying to rebound from disappointing finishes a year ago.

The Saints finished with a 9-8 record, good enough for a first place tie in a poor division but not enough for a postseason trip. Carolina wrapped up 2023 with a league-worst 2-15 mark, their fifth straight season with double-digit losses.

Each team made several offseason changes in hopes of improving their fortunes in 2024. For the Saints, most of their biggest changes were on the offensive side of the ball. It's a unit still full of questions entering the year, and imperative that they get off to a good start against a new-look Carolina defense.

Saints Offense vs. Panthers Defense

New Orleans Offense

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) breaks away against the Carolina Panthers / Chuck Cook-Imagn Images

Saints QB Derek Carr finished last season strong. Over his last six games, Carr averaged 224 yards passing while throwing 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions. For the year, Carr threw for 3,878 yards (228/game) with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

At best, Carr's performance was uneven in his first year with New Orleans. Carr was often guilty of indecisiveness and not accurately placing his throws in a position for his receivers to make plays. Both issues must vastly improve if he's to get out to a strong start and avoid even more fury from much of the team's fan base.

Carr has the weapons. Third-year WR Chris Olave is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns, including 87 catches for 1,123 yards and five scores last year. Olave is a game-breaking wideout with a good route tree and capable of spectacular catches. He'll need to be more consistent on his intermediate routes but has the abilities to be a top-tier receiver in the league.

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a deep pass against the Carolina Panthers / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Third-year WR Rashid Shaheed has the speed and deep-ball skills to strike fear into defenses. However, Shaheed also has underrated route precision that was often overlooked by the previous offensive coaches. Expect Shaheed's open field running ability to be taken advantage of far more under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

Nobody has yet stepped up to be a consistent third receiver for the Saints. A.T. Perry showed flashes as a rookie last year, while Cedrick Wilson has been productive with the Cowboys and Dolphins before arriving to New Orleans this offseason. Rookies Bub Means and Mason Tipton may also be factors if Perry or Wilson aren't able to be consistent.

Kubiak's system has traditionally created opportunities for tight ends to thrive. As such, athletic TE Juwan Johnson may be primed for a career year. Johnson is the best receiving tight end on the roster and has the athleticism to create matchup advantages all over the field. In 29 games since being converted from wideout to tight end, Johnson has 79 receptions for 876 yards and 11 touchdowns. If healthy, expect his targets to increase drastically this season.

Listed as a tight end, Taysom Hill will continue to be a nightmare for opposing defenses from everywhere on the field. Hill was always a versatile threat, but it's a threat that is expected to expand even more under Kubiak. He'll be used as a receiver, but Hill's most effective when utilized out of the backfield. We'll likely not only see him taking his familiar direct snaps, but also lined up in the backfield with Carr and RB Alvin Kamara or moving in motion to set up additional matchups.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) runs for yardage against the Carolina Panthers / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Kubiak's system is reliant on the run to set up play-action passes and keep defenses on their heels with a balanced attack. While Hill is a major factor, Alvin Kamara remains the key to this entire offense.

Kamara is coming off arguably the worst season of his seven-year career. He led the team in rushing but only had 694 yards in 13 games and averaged 3.9 per carry. Kamara caught 75 passes but averaged a career-worst 6.2 per reception. Most concerning is the fact that Kamara scored only six touchdowns and has reached the end zone only 10 times in the last two seasons.

Christian McCaffrey was the NFL Offensive Player of the Year with the 49ers and Klint Kubiak last season. Kamara is the better all-around receiver of the two and a runner capable of 1,000-yard season. Expect a more proper usage and exponentially better production in 2024.

Jamaal Williams and Jordan Mims provide backfield depth. Kamara and Hill are the primary runners but if Williams or Mims can establish a rushing threat, then Kamara and Hill will be even more dangerous when they line up elsewhere in the formation.

New Orleans Saints running back Tony Jones Jr. (34) follows a block by offensive tackle Trevor Penning (70) against the Carolina Panthers / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

While the skill position talent is there, the Saints have pressing questions along their offensive line. It's a group that will have three new starters in rookie first-round choice LT Taliese Fuaga, LG Lucas Patrick, and RT Trevor Penning.

The right side is the biggest concern. Starting RG Cesar Ruiz has been erratic at best, while Penning is learning a new position after being moved from the left side and has been a general disappointment after being selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Carr's decision-making and accuracy must improve dramatically. However, he was often hurried or under heavy duress because of poor pass protection. Additionally, the Saints averaged just 3.6 per rush in 2023, second worst in the league. Both factors need to improve drastically, and quickly.

Carolina Defense

Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn (8) and linebacker Shaq Thompson (7) / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Carolina's defense ranked 29th in points allowed but fourth in total yardage and third against the pass a year ago. However, the Saints will face a unit that looks far different in the season opener.

Gone are stars Brian Burns, Frankie Luvu, Donte Jackson, Jeremy Chinn, and Vonn Bell. Replacing them are players with far less individual talent, at least on paper. Edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum look to upgrade a pass rush that managed a league-worst 27 sacks.

Wonnum looks like he'll be sidelined by injury this Sunday. He will likely be replaced by second-year LB D.J. Johnson, rookie third-round choice Trevin Wallace, or veteran ILB Shaq Thompson.

Derrick Brown finally looked like the force that Carolina envisioned when making him the seventh overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. He'll be joined up front by former Saints DT Shy Tuttle and offseason free-agent addition A'Shawn Robinson. This group is otherwise thin and hasn't shown much pass rush production, but are big bodies that are very good run defenders.

Carolina Panthers defensive tackle Derrick Brown (95) awaiting a snap against the Green Bay Packers / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Inside LB Thompson returns and will be joined by another offseason signing in Josey Jewell. Thompson has lost a step and Jewell can be vulnerable in open space. However, each possess good instincts and are very good against the run.

Fourth-year CB Jaycee Horn has struggled with injuries in two of his three seasons. When on the field, Horn has flashed the skills that caused the Panthers to choose him with eighth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Horn will be the centerpiece of a secondary with a ton of new faces.

The corner opposite Horn may be a problem. Offseason pickup Dane Jackson is on injured reserve, forcing the Panthers to trade for Michael Jackson. Either Jackson, ideally a third or fourth corner, nickel/slot safety Troy Hill, or third-year CB Tariq Castro-Fields will get the start.

Former Rams safety Jordan Fuller was a solid addition to the secondary this offseason. He'll join Xavier Woods, Nick Scott, and Jammie Robertson to make up arguably the best position on Carolina's defense.

New System vs. New Faces

New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak during the warmups before a game against the Tennessee Titans / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

New Orleans swept both games against the Panthers last season. However, that was more on the strength of their defense than might of their offense. Carr averaged less than 180 yards through the air in those matchups, getting sacked five times. The Saints combined for 231 rushing yards in the two wins, but averaged less than four yards per carry.

Kubiak and the Saints will look to establish the run, but look for them to keep the Panthers off balance with early play-action throws. Olave, Shaheed, and Johnson could have big days against what looks like an overmatched Carolina secondary. The key to taking advantage of this of course will be providing Carr with protection up front.

Kamara didn't play in the preseason, but he'll be a big part of this game plan. Unlike the previous offensive regime, expect the Saints to try and get Kamara outside the tackles and in space. As both runner and receiver, he'll have a huge athletic advantage against Panthers linebackers.

There was a lot of excitement surrounding the hire of Klint Kubiak. The new scheme will take some time to be fully effective, but it'll happen sooner with competent offensive line play. Expect the Saints to be aggressive from the onset of the game to push a new-look Panthers defense and get their home crowd into the game early.