What Does the Future Hold for the Saints?

No matter how the Saints finish, they're going to have to ask a lot of questions at the end of the year.

Two games are left in the Saints regular season, and while they aren't out of things until they are officially eliminated, the reality is that there should be some really big future conversations in New Orleans coming. It might feel like those should have taken place already, and maybe if the team was out of it they would have intensified, but we will just have to stay patient in the meantime.

A lot of things should be on the table, but again, it won't happen until after the season. Expecting radical change is probably unrealistic. However, let's look at some of the things that have happened in 2023 for New Orleans and assess what the future might hold for Dennis Allen and company. 

Summing Up The Eight Saints Losses

Sep 24, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (25) is tackled with the football by Green Bay Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas (29) during the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Fun fact: The Saints have had a lead in just one of their eight losses this season. Here's just a brief overview of the themes and things that led to them losing the games.

• Week 3 (at Packers): Blown lead, missed Blake Grupe field goal
• Week 4 (vs. Bucs): Slow start, offensive ineptitude, red zone issues, Baker Mayfield
• Week 6 (at Texans): Trailed at the half, red zone issues, failed to deliver late
• Week 7 (vs. Jaguars): Slow start, rally late to tie, missed catch at the end of the game (shouldn't have came down to that)
• Week 10 (at Vikings): Slow start, dug big hole, rally late, defense lost itself to Josh Dobbs
• Week 12 (at Falcons): Slow start, red zone turnovers, can't get a final stop to position yourself for a chance
• Week 13 (vs. Lions): Slow start, dug big hole, rally late
• Week 16 (at Rams): Slow start, dug big hole, rally late, defense falls off

The common themes from these losses are pretty telling:

1. Inconsistency/Lack of Execution
2. Lack of Complementary Football
3. Slow Starts
4. Dig Big Holes Early 
5. Have to Rally From Behind

In the eight Saints losses this season, they have been outscored 127-62 in the first half. They've only had a lead in one (Packers) and have put up double-digit points in two of them (Packers, Texans). If that doesn't suggest proper coaching, game planning, and a variety of other things, then what other conclusion would you come up with?

Probability of Changes That Could Be On the Table

Oct 1, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen looks at the scoreboard against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

• General Manager (<5%) - Mickey Loomis is starting to take more heat these days, but I don't see the Saints moving on at all here. Loomis will continue doing this until he doesn't want to, but I also believe New Orleans needs to get wins and get into the postseason after what seemingly will be a three-year absence. If anything, Jeff Ireland could be a name paired to an open vacancy like the Chargers.
• Head Coach (20%) - Unless Dennis Allen loses the final two games and they're downright ugly, there doesn't seem much there to suggest that the Saints will move on from him. Not making the postseason with this roster is certainly not the expectation and should prompt those conversations, but I just don't get the feeling that New Orleans will pull the trigger here. I've honestly never got the sense that they're ready to move on. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport also hinted this on Friday.
• Offensive Coordinator (75%) - It feels like fresh blood and ideas need to be in the mix for the Saints offense. They just don't seem to be adapting in a way that the rest of the league is. If you want change and see consistency, a fresh perspective might be the best approach. If it's in-house with someone like Ronald Curry, then that trigger needs to be pulled fast.
• Offensive Staff Changes (80%) - Sticking with the previous theme, Derek Carr is most assuredly going to be the quarterback in 2024, and if that's the case then New Orleans needs to get him the perfect pairing. If that means bringing in someone like Jon Gruden, then make the decision and handle the optics. Doug Marrone might be the only other person that you could think of changing. They desperately need to find someone to help Trevor Penning.
• Defensive Staff Changes (60%) - If Allen isn't retained, then this could get a big makeover. I would expect someone like linebackers coach Michael Hodges to draw a lot of interest in the offseason, but essentially the entire defensive coaching staff consists of guys that were just brought in during the offseason. I don't know that many faces will change.

Major Decisions To Make On Roster

Oct 29, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) evades a tackle by Indianapolis Colts cornerback Tony Brown (38) during the first quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

The reality about the shape of this team is that the group they have will likely be the group they bring back for 2024. Some of the parts and pieces could look a little different, but New Orleans is going to do the same thing it's been doing. Get under the cap, retool, hope to hit on some picks and be in a position to compete. They're getting older and they can't strip this thing down and rebuild. It's financially impossible.

The team is going to have to figure out what to do with players like Andrus Peat and Michael Thomas. Peat's resurgence at left tackle has been one of the bigger developments of the season, but what hurts in the same aspect is how Trevor Penning can't even crack jumbo sets. As for Thomas, that feels like that's up in the air. There's not a ton of high-profile free agents that will hit the market for New Orleans, but some that are going to be in for a bigger bump.

When you look at the recent draft class, there's optimism from what you got in Bryan Bresee, Jordan Howden and A.T. Perry. You can even go a step further in some of the undrafted rookies who the Saints really feel good about. However, the issue is that most all of your Day 2 picks (Isaiah Foskey, Kendre Miller, Nick Saldiveri) have made little to no impact this season. Not really having mid-round picks this season (unless compensatory picks hit) will also make it difficult. They don't have anything in Rounds 3 and 4 right now.

Looking Ahead to 2024

The honest truth is that New Orleans has some really big opponents on the docket for next season. Among them include the Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, and an obviously big homecoming for Sean Payton with the Broncos. Based on how the Saints finish in the division will determine which NFC North opponent they'll play on the road and NFC West and AFC North they host. Yes, they get an extra home game too, assuming they don't go overseas with the league focusing on expanding more.

Strong and foundational coaching is what will be needed to beat some of these opponents, and they still have their divisional foes to face off against and other teams like the Giants, Commanders, Raiders and Chargers to play.

New Orleans has to get this thing right, and that's putting it lightly. You're essentially going to be in your final window with the nucleus of veterans you have, and who knows what other moves might come that could shake things up. Nothing would surprise me when the time comes. The Saints have failed to deliver for three straight seasons, and the days of the Drew Brees-Sean Payton Era are but a distant memory. 

Like much of this season, the Saints have been their own worst enemy. They're going to have buck that trend very quickly if they want to turn this thing around, but that also seems like a monumental task with what's to come.