Saints X-Factors vs. Texans

Here are a few key factors to watch if the Saints are going to pull out a road victory against the Houston Texans.

The 3-2 New Orleans Saints try for their second straight victory when they play at the 2-3 Houston Texans this afternoon. This is the sixth all-time meeting between the Saints and Texans, with New Orleans holding a 3-2 edge in the series. However, the Saints have never beaten the Texans on the road, losing 24-6 in 2015 and 23-10 in 2007.

New Orleans has a dominant defense near the top of the league in nearly every category, but is still struggling offensively. Houston has some young pieces defensively, but are still inconsistent on that side of the ball. Their offense has been largely one-dimensional, but second overall pick QB C.J. Stroud looks like a potential star. 

Here is one X-Factor for the Saints on each side of the ball that could have a major say in the outcome of this game.

Rashid Shaheed, WR

New Orleans Saints receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) returns a kickoff against the New England Patriots. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The undrafted second-year wideout was the most pleasant surprise on a mostly forgettable season for the Saints in 2022. Shaheed got off to a strong start this year, catching nine of ten targets for 152 yards in the first two games. 

Since that promising beginning, Shaheed has been largely overlooked in the New Orleans offense. Over the last three games, he has just five catches for 61 yards. He's been targeting 11 times, but most of those were on low percentage deep throws. 

There is no doubting that Shaheed is a deep threat with the ability to take the top of defenses. As he showed last year, he's also an underrated route runner capable of making plays underneath. Shaheed's open field skills could make him a lethal weapon on quick throws or WR screens, but the Saints have used him in that capacity very little. 

The Texans are expected to play the New Orleans receivers with off-ball coverage and zones. They just don't have the athleticism in the secondary to match up with Shaheed, Chris Olave, or Michael Thomas man to man. Shaheed's deep skills can be used to clear out some of the zone coverage underneath, perhaps opening up big plays if Houston overplays the shorter routes. 

New Orleans would also be wise to get the ball to Shaheed on quicker routes and let him use his shifty open field skills after the catch for extra yardage. Those abilities will also be valuable as a punt returner. Houston allows an average of yards per return this season. Shaheed counters with an 18.3 average as a returner, including a 76-yard touchdown against Green Bay in Week 3.

Saints Defensive Line

Houston Texans center Michael Deiter (63) against New Orleans Saints defensive tackle Bryan Bresee (90). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

After being sacked 11 times in the first two weeks, C.J. Stroud has not been sacked the last three games. Houston finally has their full starting lineup along the offensive line. This has not only fortified pass protection, but the Texans hope will boost a rushing attack that ranks 27th in production and 31st in average per attempt. 

The Saints rank fourth in total defense after five weeks. They've held opponents to less than 92 yards per game on the ground, ranking eighth, while recording 11 sacks and 27 QB hits.

New Orleans defensive tackles are far more disruptive than we've seen from this position the previous two seasons. First-round pick Bryan Bresee looks like a potential star and has 1.5 sacks, 7 pressures, and three tackles for loss. Nathan Shepherd has been outstanding against the run and has added a sack and four pressures. Malcolm Roach and Khalen Saunders have rounded out a strong interior rotation. 

Interior disruption is typically key against any quarterback, but especially a rookie. C.J. Stroud has thrown eight touchdowns against no interceptions and has averaged 292 passing yards per contest. Getting inside penetration will stall Houston's running game and should make Stroud uncomfortable enough to hurry throws.

The Saints have a favorable matchup against the Texans receivers and will likely play aggressive man-to-man coverage to challenge them. Their job will be made easier by pressure on Stroud. 

A big matchup to watch will be on the outside will be New Orleans DEs Cameron Jordan and Carl Granderson vs. Houston tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard. Tunsil and Howard are two former first-round picks going up against a future Hall of Famer in Jordan and breakout player in Granderson.

Together, the two have 4.5 sacks, 21 pressures, and six tackles for loss. Another wrinkle to watch is DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, who was used inside last week in obvious passing situations to increase athleticism in the pass rush. 

On the Spot: Pete Carmichael 

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) calls a play against the New England Patriots. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Even with the 34 points against the Patriots, several questions and concerns continue to surround the New Orleans offense. The Saints got excellent contributions from the backfield duo of Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller, a trend we can expect to continue. 

Since throwing for over 300 yards in the season opener, QB Derek Carr and the passing attack has averaged under 170 yards in their last four games. Absurd for a unit that has Carr, Kamara, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Shaheed. 

New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael looks on against the Kansas City Chiefs. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Spacing of the receivers continues to be a major issue, as is play-calling and overall scheme. For his part, Carr must be more accurate with his throws. The offensive line must also perform better in pass protection and establishing the run. Carmichael should be the member of the Saints offense under the biggest microscope. 

The Texans have some defensive talent, but rank just 28th on third downs and allow over 72% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. Yes, the players need to execute, but Carmichael must devise a game plan and make in-game adjustments to keep the young Houston defenders on their heels and get his own New Orleans offense into a rhythm that finally matches their talent.