Should We Consider Chris Olave As The New Orleans Saints No. 1 Receiver This Season?

Chris Olave's potential is unlimited, but is he the New Orleans Saints' top receiver for Derek Carr this season?

Sep 10, 2023; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) runs for a first down in the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Sports / Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Sports

Will New Orleans Saints veteran wide receiver Chris Olave be the team's No. 1 receiver in 2024? Let's explore.

Olave, 24, has played 31 of 34 regular-season games with the Saints since they selected him as the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Oddly enough, former offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael allowed Olave to start only 20 of those 31 games together.

As Micheal Thomas and Jarvis Landry were sidelined with injuries for most of his rookie season, Olave led the team with 72 receptions on 119 targets for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns. The following year, Olave caught 87 of his 138 targets for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns. His yards per target remained consistent from 8.1 to 8.8, but the receiver's yards per reception decreased from 14.5 to 12.9.

CHRIS OLAVE ON ELEVATING HIS GAME

"Just going into this offseason knowing that (the Saints) believe in me as the Receiver 1, I'm excited to get to work. But I'm just trying to take that next step forward and try to go from a good player to an elite player. So just trying to be consistent every day and put in the work to be able to be one of the top receivers in the game."  - 

THE SAINTS RECEIVERS AVERAGES AND YAC

Remaining healthy is a concern for Derek Carr's leading receiver. He missed two games as a rookie and one last season. Recently, Dennis Allen confirmed "Olave hurt his shoulder" in the weight room, according to T/P's Matthew Paras. With a new offensive coordinator, installing plays will be different in New Orleans. Veterans Rashid Shaheed, Cedrick Wilson, Equanimeous St. Brown, and A.T. Perry will fight for playing time and football targets. Rookies Bub Means, Jermaine Jackson, and Mason Tipton want to solidify a spot on the roster, so expect a highly competitive training camp in Irvine.

KUBIAK AND THE NINERS RECEIVERS

If you take a snapshot of Kubiak's former team during their Super Bowl campaign, it wasn't Deebo Samuels as the 49er's leading receiver. Instead, Brandon Aiyuk had 1,342 yards and 7 TDs, versus Samuels' 892 yards and 7 TDs. Shannahan and Kubiak like big, strong wideouts who have productive YAC.   

Samuels held the YAC advantage of 527 YAC versus 382 YAC. Aiyuk averaged 17.9 yards to 14.9 yards per reception - a delta of 3 yards per catch. Who could give Kubiak those similar numbers in New Orleans?

Olave's 2023 average of 12.9 yards per reception is 2 yards fewer than Deebo Samuels. Also, he had 347 yards of YAC last season. As a rookie, Perry led the Saints by averaging a staggering 20.5 yards, and Shaheed was second, posting 15.6 yards per catch.  

FANTASY

A fantasy football blog recently argued against selecting Olave as a first-round receiver. CBS Sports fantasy outlook for Olave is lukewarm:

"Olave will have working for him an added year of rapport with Derek Carr, no Michael Thomas to compete with for targets, and possible positive touchdown regression coming his way. Olave is coming off the board in the back end of Round 2 or early Round 3 and should provide a WR2 floor with the upside for more."

Could Olave be the consistent playmaker who delivers the big blow and extends plays with his impressive YAC? He's a ballhawk and runs fantastic routes, but is he consistent enough to produce big numbers as the New Orleans Saints' No. 1 receiver?  

At the moment, I don't see where New Orleans has any other choice. Unless another wideout decides to separate from the pack in training camp or the Saints sign or trade for another wideout, Olave is still the top target.