State Of The NFC South: Division Outlook After 13 Games

A look at the playoff race in the NFC South with the season winding down to just four games to play.

New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) leaps to sack Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Ugly, but effective. This was the best way to describe the New Orleans Saints' 14-11 win at the New York Giants on Sunday. The Saints improved their record to 5-8 with the win, staying two games behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC South lead with four games to play.

New Orleans has faint playoff hopes, but they're still alive for a postseason spot missing since the 2020 campaign. However, a seven-game losing streak at mid-season has put them in must-win situations down the stretch while still needing outside help.

A wild card spot is out of reach. With cooperation already from the other NFC South teams, the division crown is still within almost reasonable grasp.

Collectively, the NFC South has a 21-31 record heading into Week 15, a winning percentage of .404. Only the AFC South, with a collective record of 20-32 and winning percentage of .385, has been worse as a group. The AFC East, collectively 22-30 and .423, has the 10-3 Buffalo Bills as a saving grace.

Here are the current standings in the NFC South, including division record, conference record, and remaining games for tiebreaker purposes.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass under pressure against the New Orleans Saints / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

• Division Record = 2-2
• Conference Record = 6-3

at Chargers (8-5)
at Cowboys (5-8)
vs. Panthers (3-10)
vs. Saints (5-8)

A four-game losing streak from mid-October into early November had the Buccaneers reeling, but they've rattled off three straight wins since their bye. Granted, those games were against the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders, three teams with a combined 7-32 record. Still, it's allowed Tampa Bay to right the ship and has them looking for a fourth straight division title.

The Buccaneers are dealing with a long list of injuries, especially on the defensive side. They'll also face a stiff road test when they take on the Chargers this Sunday. After that, their schedule gets easier again on paper.

The Buccaneers were swept by the Falcons, so will lose a head-to-head tiebreaker. At the moment, they are still playing the most consistent football of anyone in the division.

2. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)

New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson (83) after a catch against the Atlanta Falcons / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

• Division Record = 4-1
• Conference Record = 6-3

at Raiders (2-11)
vs. Giants (2-11)
at Washington (8-5)
vs. Panthers (3-10)

Losers of four straight, Atlanta looks exactly like the frauds I thought they'd be when the year started. Perennially overrated QB Kirk Cousins has thrown eight interceptions without a touchdown pass during that four game skid. The Falcons 23rd ranked defense is not a playoff caliber unit and certainly isn't good enough to overcome the bumbling of the offense.

Despite all their problems and talent deficiencies, Atlanta still owns the inside track to the division. Outside of Washington, a probable playoff team, their other three remaining opponents have a combined record of a laughable 7-32. Additionally, the Falcons also own a season sweep over the Buccaneers and would also win a tiebreaker over the Saints because of their strong record within the division.

If Cousins gets hot, which he has the ability to do, this offense has enough talent at the skill positions to give defenses problems. It should be expected that they'll go at least 3-1 down the stretch because of their schedule, even with the way they've been playing. If so, that forces the Buccaneers to keep winning to stay a game ahead in the standings.

3. New Orleans Saints (5-8)

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Carolina Panthers / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

• Division Record = 2-3
• Conference Record = 4-5

vs. Washington (8-5)
at Packers (9-4)
vs. Raiders (2-11)
at Buccaneers (7-6)

A seven-game losing streak at mid-season put the Saints in must-win situations down the stretch while still needing outside help. It's a scenario that's also kept New Orleans at home for the playoffs the last three years.

Injuries destroyed a tremendous start by the Saints offense. Now, QB Derek Carr (hand/concussion) joins wideouts Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and versatile chess piece Taysom Hill on the sidelines. New Orleans has also gotten no help from their offensive line, which actually had their starting five intact last week for the first time since the third play of Week 3.

Defensively, the Saints are no longer a team that can shut down opponents. In fact, they've stopped few teams on the way to plummeting to the bottom of the league's rankings. This combination has led to a daunting list of offseason needs.

New Orleans also faces a daunting schedule, playing playoff contenders Washington, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay in three of their final four weeks. They'll have to sweep through them, hope the Falcons and Buccaneers falter, and do it with a shorthanded and aging squad.

4. Carolina Panthers (3-10)

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws against the New Orleans Saints / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

• Division Record = 1-3
• Conference Record = 2-6

vs. Cowboys (5-8)
vs. Cardinals (6-7)
at Buccaneers (7-6)
at Falcons (6-7)

Since a modest two-game winning streak that included beating the Saints, Carolina has lost three straight. They've been extremely competitive in those losses to the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles however, putting up a fight until the final moments of each contest.

The Panthers are playing better football than they have at any time in the last two years. Quarterback Bryce Young is finally showing the promise of a first overall choice, and the weapons around him are flashing some potential.

Carolina will miss the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. However, they'll play a role in how the NFC playoff picture shapes up. The Panthers could put the finishing blow on the fading postseason hopes of Dallas and Arizona. With their last two contests against Tampa Bay and Atlanta, both on the road, how they perform will likely determine this year's winner of the NFC South.