State Of The NFC South: What To Watch For As We Enter Week 12

A look through the NFC South as the NFL goes into its final stretch of games towards the postseason.

State of the NFC South - Week 12 / Credit: Imagn Images

Entering the 2024-25 NFL season, most national pundits ranked the NFC South as the NFL's weakest division. Strong 2-0 starts by the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers had some rethinking those protections, but each squad had struggles over the next several weeks as the Atlanta Falcons took control of the standings.

Going into Week 12, the division isn't the worst in the league, but it isn't far off. The Saints, Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers have a combined record of 17-25. That's a winning percentage of .405, worst among the four NFC divisions but surpassed by a .372 winning percentage from the AFC South.

The NFC South has the second most combined losses and second fewest wins of any of the league's eight divisions. Only the AFC South is worse in both categories. The NFC South boasts the worst record of any of the league's current division leaders. Only the AFC East and NFC South have three teams with losing records.

New Orleans and Atlanta have byes in Week 12. Tampa Bay is coming off their bye and is trying to break a four-game losing streak. Carolina, also coming off a bye, is hoping to extend their two-game winning streak.

At the conclusion of this week's slate of games, each NFC South team will have six remaining contests. Here is how the division standings currently look, with each squad's division and conference record.

1. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) rushes against the Atlanta Falcons / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

• 4-1 division record
• 6-2 conference record

Despite their record and being incredibly overhyped by the national media coming into the season, the Falcons have a stranglehold on the division. This is a result of their strong division and conference record.

Atlanta has been exposed recently in losses to the Saints and Broncos as well as an October rout to Seattle. However, they have a lot of talent at the skill positions and have stayed relatively healthy all year.

The Falcons have a pretty easy schedule after this week's bye, facing three of the worst teams in the league. Frankly, it would take a bit of a choke job by Atlanta to lose the division. As we've seen consistently throughout the years, however, the Falcons will always find a way to Falcon in the end.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

• 1-2 division record
• 4-3 conference record

No team has been hit as hard with injuries as the Saints this season, but the Buccaneers come fairly close. Tampa Bay opened the year looking like a legitimate contender, which included a 51-27 thrashing of New Orleans in the Superdome.

That Week 6 win was the last for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers come out of their bye having lost four straight games, albeit by a combined 24 points. Wideout Mike Evans and a few of their starting defensive backs return to action as the Buccaneers look like they're getting healthy at the right time.

Tampa Bay was swept by the Falcons in two potentially costly losses. However, the Buccaneers face just one team with a winning record in their final seven weeks. With one game against the Saints and two versus the Panthers, they'll also have a chance to strengthen their tiebreaker chances within the division.

3. New Orleans Saints (4-7)

Taysom Hill (7) of the New Orleans Saints breaks a long touchdown against the Cleveland Browns / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

• 2-3 division record
• 3-4 conference record

New Orleans comes into their bye on a two-game winning streak under interim coach Darren Rizzi. They'll need to sustain that momentum if they have any chance whatsoever at even clawing back into contention for the division.

The Saints haven't done themselves any favors. Losing winnable games to Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Carolina when they had late fourth quarter leads would have made their outlook much different than what reality is. Instead, New Orleans needs an unlikely run and must still get a lot of outside help for even a chance.

Injuries have stripped the Saints down to practice squad players and free-agent signings off the street for portions of the year. New Orleans is starting to get healthier, but will still be without key pieces Rashid Shaheed, Paulson Adebo, and likely Chris Olave for the remainder of this year.

Will New Orleans be able to maintain their better play from the last two weeks? Even if so, the hole they dug themselves could cause them to come up short in tiebreakers and leave them out of the postseason for a fourth straight season.

4. Carolina Panthers (3-7)

New Orleans Saints defenders Demario Davis (56) and Bryan Bresee (90) close in on Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

• 1-2 division record
• 2-4 conference record

No NFL team has a worse (-143) point differential than the Panthers, who are pretty much as bad as everyone predicted at the start of the year.

Having said that, Carolina comes out of their bye with a two-game winning streak. One of those was against New Orleans as the final straw in Dennis Allen's job status.

While not mathematically eliminated, it's hard to fathom the Panthers staying alive much longer. This is a bad football team that has games against the Chiefs and Eagles in the upcoming weeks.

Nevertheless, Carolina can play not only a major role in the way the NFC South standings play out, but also the result of the way the entire NFC playoff chase. They have two games against the Buccaneers and one against the Falcons as well as matchups with division leaders Philadelphia and Arizona.

The Panthers can play spoiler in their own division and also deal a blow to other conference playoff hopefuls. Or, their opponents will have smoother paths to the postseason with easy wins against a woeful Carolina franchise.