Would A Change In Play-Calling Benefit The Saints Offense?

With the New Orleans Saints offense struggling, many assume the most immediate path to improvement is a change at play-caller. Does history agree?

If you would have told just about anyone this preseason that through four games, the New Orleans Saints would be averaging just 15.5 points per game, you would probably have been called a liar. Nonetheless, that is exactly where the Saints are right now. With the level of talent on this roster, there is no way to sugarcoat the situation. This has been a surprise and a disappointment through the first quarter of the season.

The good news? A 2-2 start is no death sentence for an NFL team. With 13 games left, there is most certainly time to turn thing around. However, the clock is ticking and improvements will need to be mustered with haste.

Oct 1, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) pulls off his sleeve in frustration after a sack and fumble by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

Many believe the more immediate way to assure that improvement is with a change at play-caller. In the last 21 games since offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. stepped into his expanded role which included calling players. During that stretch of games, the Saints have averaged. 18.6 points per game. 

With talent on the roster like quarterback Derek Carr, running back Alvin Kamara, wideouts Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed among several more skilled players, the level of production in 2023 alone as been disappointing. Not always necessary to roll back the clock for more frustration. But, that is exactly what I did.

While the masses call for a change at play-caller, a sentiment that is easy to agree with, exploring the history of in-season changes with this responsibility shows that seeking an alternative may not have the impact most desire. Not that anyone expects the Saints to turn over the role and find immediate success. At least until they potentially do not find it. Then what? Change again? The cycle can be damning.

I took a look at seven notable in-season play-caller changes around the NFL starting from 2002, when a familiar face was replaced with the New York Giants. I then broke down and tracked level of improvement based on: winning percentage after the change, point per game differential before and after and yards per game differential before and after.

Here are the play-calling changes I used:

• In 2002, New York Giants head coach Jim Fassell took offensive coordinator Sean Payton's role calling plays.
• In 2015, the Detroit Lions moved on from offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, shifting responsibilities to Jim Bob Cooter.
• 2016 was the year of in-season play-caller changes including the Buffalo Bills shifting from Greg Roman to Anthony Lynn, the Baltimore Ravens fired Marc Tressman and hired Marty Mornhinweg, the Jacksonville Jaguars moved on from Greg Olson and appointed Nathaniel Hackett as their play-caller and finally the Minnesota Vikings lost Norv Turner, who resigned after a 5-2 start, after which Pat Shurmur took the reigns.
• Most recently, in 2021 former Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbell replaced Anthony Lynn as play-caller for the Detroit Lions.

Combining the win and loss records of the above teams after the change, the clubs went 32-37 or 46.4%. With 13 games left in the Saints season, including this weekend's matchup with the New England Patriots, that average would lead to just 6 more wins and therefore an 8-9 finish and likely another season missing the postseason.

Would that have been worth it? Surely not, but of course, you make a change this drastic with the intent on improving, not meeting the average. But reality can be more times than not a disappointment relative to expectations when it comes to the NFL and its many variables.

While the winning percentage following play-caller changes may not be very gratifying in these examples, there is a consistent upside. In nearly every case, each team that made a change saw a boost in points per game and yards per game follow. The lone exception was the 2016 Jaguars who averaged 19.9 points per game through seven games with Olson at the helm, and saw no change through the following nine games (in which they went 1-8) with Hackett.

The average boost across all seven examples were a 32.3% increase in points per game and a 16% increase in total yardage. 

Sep 18, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) reacts with wide receiver Chris Olave (12) in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

A 32.3% increase to the Saints' current average of a despondent 15.5 points per game would only take the team up to 20.5. That would be enough to take the current No. 20 spot across the league.

When it comes to the 16% yards per game increase, a leap from 285.3 per game to 330.9 looks nice. It would also take the team from No. 23 in the NFL to No. 15 by the current standards. As everyone knows, yards do not win games, points do.

So with that in mind, what would be the benefit of a play caller change should the above averages turn out to be the results? There are a couple of things to consider while pondering: remaining schedule, who steps in to the role, health of the team, health of the opponents and much more. Predicting the NFL, as every pre-season power ranking has proved since the dawn of power rankings, is a futile practice.

The decision almost can not be made based on possible outcomes, but instead with the hope of improving the process. But perhaps New Orleans feels that it can improve its process without a drastic change. "I've never seen (a change at play-caller) to be the right answer," Allen told New Orleans media the day after the team's Week 4 loss. "Particularly when we’re four games into the season. And yet, we have to be better. I understand everyone’s frustration because everyone in the building feels it.”

The Saints have chosen their path. At least for now. But many will wonder as the weeks role on; did the Saints pass on rolling the dice? Or are they actively rolling the dice by not making a change? By season's end, only one will be right.