Analysis: Are Seahawks Not Committed to Brandon Shell?

Despite an impressive 2020 season, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll's recent comments suggest Brandon Shell may be on a short leash to keep his starting job at right tackle this fall.

In the weeks leading up to free agency, the Seahawks' offensive line was the talk of the offseason after Russell Wilson publicly aired out his frustrations towards the unit and the organization as a whole. Coming off an increasingly dreadful slide towards the end of the 2020 season, which all came to a head in the team's 30-20 loss to the Rams in the wild-card round this past January, Seattle's offense underwent a significant overhaul. 

It began with the hiring of new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who brought along run game coordinator Andy Dickerson with him from Los Angeles. Then, once free agency kicked off, the Seahawks worked their way around limited finances to address several positions on both sides of the ball. 

However, offensive line wasn't incredibly prominent among them, with just one new addition coming into the fold. It was a big one, to be sure, with veteran guard Gabe Jackson being reeled in via trade with the Raiders, but the line, otherwise, remained fairly unchanged.

That was to be somewhat expected, given most of their issues were on the interior. Their starting left guard in 2020, Mike Iupati, had just retired, and Ethan Pocic, their center, was an unrestricted free agent. They didn't have to worry about the outside, however, with tackles Duane Brown and Brandon Shell coming off two of the best seasons of their respective careers

Shell, especially, may have had his best year yet in 2020. Coming over from the Jets as a free agent last offseason, he matched his career-low in sacks allowed - in a full season played, that is - with three, all while earning Pro Football Focus grades of 80.3 and 61.1 in pass protection and run blocking respectively.

Though he missed time primarily due to an ankle injury, he was arguably the Seahawks' second-most consistent contributor along their line last season. But with that said, they don't appear very committed to him this year.

In head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider's pre-draft meeting with the media last week, the former spoke about the lack of competition he facilitated throughout the roster in 2020, citing the COVID-19 pandemic. This was uncharacteristic for a Carroll-led team and the Super Bowl champion coach's 'Always Compete' philosophy. 

As Carroll told reporters, he'll be rectifying this in the coming months.

"I didn't feel like, because of the format of last camp where we didn't have the offseason and we didn't have preseason games and the evaluations of players were so uniquely different than it's ever been," Carroll explained. "I didn't feel like I gave our roster - throughout the depth of the roster - the best opportunity I could have for their statement for where they fit into this club. That's something I've already told our guys. That's happening."

Among the list of players Carroll noted will benefit from this was tackle Cedric Ogbuehi, who the Seahawks re-signed to a one-year deal in late March. Ogbuehi logged a good portion of his snaps as a swing tackle in his first year with team, but he ended up starting four late-season games in place of the injured Shell.

And he played very well in three of those four starts, averaging a 62.5 overall grade from PFF in that time. Take away his less-than-stellar performance in his first start against the Eagles in Week 12 and that grade bumps up to 71.2. 

Last week wouldn't be the final time Carroll name-dropped Ogbuehi in regards to competition for starting snaps, however. After the draft, in which the Seahawks selected 6-foot-8 Florida tackle Stone Forsythe in the sixth round, Carroll once again threw the Texas A&M product's hat in the ring.

"This is a guy that really has the potential to be a big time football player," Carroll stated. "He’s going to get a great chance to go with Brandon out there at the right tackle spot and compete to the finish to see who wins the job."

Ogbuehi's fairly small sample size clearly left a lasting impression on Carroll and the rest of Seattle's coaching staff, because Shell never truly gave them a reason to move off of him aside from things that are purely out of his control. Of course, this is the nature of Carroll's Seahawks at their finest, offering an endless supply of opportunity to those who earn it from top to bottom. 

All of a sudden, what appeared to be a foregone conclusion is now entirely up in the air following Carroll's comments; Brandon Shell isn't safe. No one is, other than Seattle's handful of stars. 

And Shell and Ogbuehi may not be alone in their competition either. The Seahawks were incredibly high on Forsythe after Hall of Famer and Seattle football consultant Steve Hutchinson gushed about his workout. So high they built the latter half of their draft strategy around selecting him, considering trading back a second time in the fourth round to accumulate more ammunition to go up and get him. In the end, they sweated it out as he continued to fall towards their sixth-round pick before completing a small trade-up with the Bears to No. 208. 

"There was a situation where we could have gone back even further after we worked with Tampa [to trade back to No. 137], to see if we could get Tre [Brown] a little bit later," Schneider admitted. "... With the thought of acquiring another pick to try to get up to go get Stone." 

It was imperative to the Seahawks they came away from the draft with Forsythe in tow, and for good reason. This was a player that earned day two grades from many outlets and even some first-round buzz, but surprisingly wound up falling to the early 200s—close enough for Seattle and its limited draft capital to successfully move up and take him.

He may very well be pro-ready at this moment, though the Seahawks ideally want him to sit behind Duane Brown for the year with the veteran's contract set to expire after the season. While a reunion with Brown isn't off the table next offseason, he's entering his age 36 campaign and could call it a career if he so wishes. Forsythe is likely seen as his heir apparent at left tackle, though Shell and Ogbuehi are also going to be free agents at the same time.

Some scouts view Forsythe as a better fit on the right side at the professional level, so that may be where he finds his eventual home. That could be as early as this fall, or at some point in the later stages of the 2021 season. It most certainly will be in 2022, barring any unforeseen injury.

One thing is clear: however the Seahawks' offensive line shakes out in 2022, it's not going to include both Brown and Shell. At least one of them will be gone, with the potential of both. And if Shell loses the position battle to Ogbuehi or Forsythe out of camp, it's possible he finds his way out of town even quicker than that. 

Whether he's cut now or after June 1, Shell would save the cap-strapped Seahawks nearly $3.5 million with a dead cap hit of $2 million. That may not seem like much on the surface, but for example: it could be the difference between retaining linebacker K.J. Wright or not if they don't restructure Russell Wilson's contract or take one of the few other avenues at their disposal to free up salary cap space. 

The Seahawks like having the luxury of Ogbuehi as a swing tackle/sixth lineman, however, and that depth has grown even more with the arrival of Forsythe. They've seen firsthand how injuries to their line can derail their offense, much like it assisted in doing so last year. Their likely preference here is that Shell does come out of camp with the job, giving them plenty of depth to rely on as the natural wear-and-tear of the season comes to pass. 

For now, Shell still appears to be in the driver's seat. But given what has been said over the last six days, that may change in due time.