Analysis: The Unique Qualities of Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny's Recent Breakout and How (Un)sustainable It Is

Rashaad Penny is having one of the best four-week stretches any running back could possibly have. But how sustainable is the Seahawks' newfound success on the ground, and how rare is the company Penny currently finds himself in? Ty Dane Gonzalez dives into the numbers.

Once on the cusp of NFL irrelevancy, and nearing the end of his rookie contract, Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny has suddenly taken the league by storm. Over the past four weeks, the former first-round draft pick, who's been plagued by injuries for much of his young career, has statistically been one of football's most efficient rushers. 

Penny has registered three of the league's 23 highest single-game rushing totals for the 2021 season during that time, landing him in extremely rare, elite company. For context: only Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has exceeded that number (five), while Titans running back Derrick Henry has matched it. Furthermore, Penny's expected points added per rush attempt (0.14) ranks fifth from Weeks 14-17, though the four ball carriers ahead of him have recorded around just half of the carries he has.

EPA Per Rush / Attempts, Weeks 14-17. Courtesy: TruMedia

Simply put: since December 9, no other running back with a comparable volume of opportunities has come even close to Penny's level of efficiency. To further exemplify how unique his recent breakout has been, listed below is every running back who's posted an EPA per rush north of 0.10 on 50 or more carries over a four-week stretch in 2021. 

PLAYER	TEAM	WEEKS	EPA PER RUSH	ATTEMPTS	YARDS
Austin Ekeler	LAC	2-5	0.21	52	292
Jonathan Taylor	IND	2-5	0.10	74	419
Jonathan Taylor	IND	3-6	0.30	55	365
Kareem Hunt	CLE	3-6	0.18	50	277
Jonathan Taylor	IND	4-7	0.14	63	408
Leonard Fournette	TB	4-7	0.10	69	321
Jonathan Taylor	IND	5-8	0.17	63	375
Jonathan Taylor	IND	6-9	0.22	67	494
Jonathan Taylor	IND	7-10	0.10	74	465
Jonathan Taylor	IND	8-11	0.19	88	543
Jordan Howard	PHI	8-11	0.15	51	274
Jonathan Taylor	IND	9-12	0.16	88	556
Joe Mixon	CIN	9-12	0.12	71	352
Miles Sanders	PHI	12-15	0.10	51	315
Dalvin Cook	MIN	13-16	0.11	55	294
Rashaad Penny	SEA	14-17	0.14	69	481

Firstly, wow, Taylor is really good at this football thing, huh? Secondly, making Penny's run all the more impressive is the fact that he's mostly done it behind an offensive line impacted by injuries and COVID-related issues. The line, of course, deserves a large share of the credit, particularly backups Jake Curhan and Phil Haynes. Their efforts over the past four weeks have earned the Seahawks the 13th-highest team run blocking grade from Pro Football Focus over that span, coming in at a mark of 65.6, with Curhan (73.9) and center Ethan Pocic (73.5) leading the charge. 

Finally and fully healthy, Penny's acceleration and explosiveness out of his one cut has helped him break off some big plays even when his line isn't executing to the best of its ability. He's gotten to his top speed in a hurry, hitting the hole in a decisive manner and laying the boom when he meets an opposing defender head-on. Evidently, his average of 4.2 yards after contact ranks first in the league.

Most rushing yards after contact per attempt

💪 Rashaad Penny - 4.2 pic.twitter.com/41Jvdxp1Z4

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 5, 2022

As noted by Seahawk Maven's Matty F. Brown in an article dissecting the offensive line's role in Seattle's recent success, Penny's six rushes of 20 yards or more is just two off the lead held by Taylor, despite having 230 less carries than the MVP candidate. Additionally, Next Gen Stats has the fourth-year back down for 197 rushing yards over expected—double that of any other running back in the league since his breakout began.

In terms of yards per carry allowed in 2021, Penny and company have been matched up against both ends of the NFL spectrum and in between since Week 14, facing the Texans (tied-29th, 4.7 YPC allowed), Rams (tied-third, 3.9 YPC allowed), Bears (tied-19th, 4.4 YPC allowed) and Lions (tied-19th, 4.4 YPC allowed). Interestingly, Penny's worst game of the four came against the highest-ranked team listed, Los Angeles, as he tallied just 39 yards on 11 rushes (3.5 YPC) in a 20-10 loss. 

So how sustainable—or unsustainable—is Seattle's success on the ground? Eventually, these numbers will certainly trend downward, but that's not necessarily a negative thing. What Penny has been able to accomplish over the past four weeks is improbable to maintain throughout the course of a full season, so naturally, 2022—assuming Penny is retained this spring—will result in some form of regression to the mean.

Here's a look at every running back who's posted similar numbers to Penny's four-week stretch in a full season's time since 2000. 

PLAYER	TEAM	YEAR	RUSH ATTEMPTS	EPA PER RUSH	YARDS PER CARRY
Alvin Kamara	NO	2017	120	0.26	6.1
Mike Gillislee	BUF	2016	101	0.20	5.7
Marion Barber	DAL	2006	135	0.19	4.8
J.K. Dobbins	BAL	2020	134	0.15	6.0
Marion Barber	DAL	2007	204	0.14	4.8
Dion Lewis	NE	2017	180	0.11	5.0
Jamaal Charles	KC	2010	230	0.11	6.4
Pierre Thomas	NO	2008	129	0.11	4.8
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	2007	167	0.11	4.6
LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	2006	348	0.10	5.2

The majority of these examples mostly served in backup/rotational roles for their respective teams during the year listed, with LaDainian Tomlinson being the lone exception (16 starts in 16 games). Closest to Tomlinson were Dion Lewis (eight starts) and Jamaal Charles (six starts). This perfectly illustrates just how difficult it would be to quadruple Penny's efficiency from four games to 17 as Seattle's lead back, especially when the outlier on the above list, Tomlinson's 2006 campaign, resulted in the NFL's single-season record for touchdowns (28) and an MVP award. 

Nevertheless, incoming statistical decline or not, what the Seahawks have done to close out an otherwise disappointing 2021 season is a great building block for the road ahead. In a month's time, Penny has been able to etch out a second lease on life in the NFL and reshape the trajectory of his professional career. Moreover, while it's ultimately too late, Seattle's struggling offense has finally found a groove—and an identity—that it sorely missed for most of the year. 

It's a testament to Penny's resiliency and the work of his offensive line and coaches Shane Waldron, Andy Dickerson and Mike Solari. Hopefully, if this regime is given the chance to get back on track, such momentum can be successfully carried over nine months from now.