Analysis: Who Holds Edge in Seahawks' Impending Quarterback Competition?

With OTAs set to kick off next week and training camp drawing closer, all signs point to Drew Lock and Geno Smith duking it out for Seattle's starting job under center.

To the surprise of many, after making the stunning decision to trade long-time starting quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos in March, the Seahawks haven't made any notable additions to the quarterback group through the draft and free agency.

Despite rumored interest in Liberty's Malik Willis and Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, Seattle bypassed multiple opportunities to select both players in the second and third round of last month's NFL draft. With Cleveland dangling former No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield as trade bait, general manager John Schneider hasn't bit on that opportunity either, refusing to consider trading away assets for a player carrying a near-$19 million guaranteed salary.

Instead, the Seahawks plan to roll into the 2022 season with Drew Lock, who was acquired from the Broncos in the Wilson trade, and veteran Geno Smith, who re-signed on a one-year contract shortly before the draft, competing against one another for the right to succeed Wilson. Though both players have ample experience in the league, neither succeeded with their original teams as hoped and posted losing records as starters.

Assuming Seattle doesn't make a move to acquire Mayfield or another quarterback before the start of training camp in July, who should be viewed as the favorite to start?To help reach a verdict, I broke down their respective games into six categories for comparison, including quick passing, third down productivity, vertical passing, and play action proficiency.

**All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.

Quick Passing Game: Geno Smith

In his second season as offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron will likely lean more heavily on the quick strike passing game to protect his quarterback and a young offensive line, particularly with Wilson and his moon balls now in Denver. The quarterback who excels getting the football out to his receivers with accuracy will have a major advantage in this competition and based on stats and film, Smith looks to have the slight edge in this category.

Last season, Smith toed the line with perfection on throws inside 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, completing 41 out of 45 passes for 353 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, and a pair of touchdowns. Attacking the middle of the field with precision, he completed 24 out of 26 passes between the hash marks for 251 yards, and he didn't miss on any of his eight throws outside the left hash for 68 yards and a touchdown.

From a timing standpoint, on throws where Smith had 2.5 seconds or less to throw, he completed 83 percent of his 53 pass attempts for 341 yards and a pair of scores. When accounting for three batted passes at the line of scrimmage, his adjusted completion rate jumps to 91.7 percent.

Looking at Lock's stat line, his accuracy wasn't quite as remarkable as Smith, but he still was relatively effective on throws inside 10 yards. He completed 74 percent of his 50 attempts at that range for 326 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Like Smith, he performed at his best throwing outside the left hash, completing seven out of eight throws for 77 yards, and he threw for 121 yards and a score when targeting the middle of the field.

While Lock's short passing numbers aren't far off, his numbers when throwing in less than 2.5 seconds pale in comparison to Smith due to several factors. He completed 69 percent of his passes for 362 yards, a touchdown, and a pick in such situations, but three dropped passes negatively impacted his production. Per PFF, his adjusted completion percentage would have been 80 percent if those passes were caught and two batted passes advanced past the line of scrimmage.

Vertical Passing Game: Geno Smith

While Seahawks general manager John Schneider praised Lock for having a "hose" of a throwing arm and he may have the stronger arm overall entering this competition, he hasn't figured out how to maximize on his arm talent. Smith isn't a slouch in the arm strength department either and displayed good touch on downfield passes in limited opportunities last year.

While Smith only attempted 11 passes longer than 20 yards through the air in four games last season, he completed five of them for 183 yards and 16.6 yards per attempt with a pair of touchdowns, including an 84-yard bomb to DK Metcalf. Those numbers also could be far better if not for a bad luck interception caused by receiver Tyler Lockett slipping out of his break in a loss to the Rams. Even with that misfortune, he posted a 41.7 percent "big time throw" rate according to PFF, and produced a 93.8 passer rating on those throws.

On the flipside, Lock attempted 21 throws of 20-plus yards last season and completed only seven of them for 214 yards and a touchdown. In the season prior, he completed only 18 out of 71 pass attempts at that distance and tied Tom Brady for the most intercepted passes on such attempts while only throwing three touchdowns. In comparison, Brady threw 15 touchdown passes on deep balls.

It's possible Lock could find his groove launching rockets downfield to Metcalf and Lockett playing in an offense better suited for his skill set. But the numbers lean heavily in Smith's favor in terms of reliability and effectiveness in the vertical passing game.

Mobility/Escape Ability: Drew Lock

Over the past decade, Wilson's talents as both a passer and a runner made him one of the most difficult quarterbacks in the game to defend. While they may not have the same Houdini-like magician skills, Smith and Lock both have underrated athletic talents to provide some semblance of a dual-threat to Seattle's offense.

Coming out of West Virginia, Smith ran a 4.58 40-yard dash, posting a similar time to Wilson. Early in his career, he ran the football quite a bit for the Jets, including rushing for 366 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie in 2013. Last year, he didn't tuck and run often, but he did rush seven times for 44 yards and a touchdown, proving to be effective when he needed to use his legs.

As for Lock, at 6-foot-4, 228 pounds, he ran a respectable 4.69 40-yard dash and he's sneaky fast for a quarterback of his size. Still in the early stages of his career, he has scored five touchdowns as a runner over the previous two seasons and averaged four yards per carry since entering the league. He's capable of slipping out of the pocket and picking up yardage as a scrambler while also having enough size to break out of arm tackles.

This one is a close call and both players could create as runners if necessary, but with Smith set to turn 32 in October, his days as a dangerous running threat are likely behind him. Lock won't be mistaken for Wilson, but as he exhibited in recent seasons, he can be a problem when he rolls out of or slides up in the pocket and offers surprisingly mobility.

Play Action Passing: Geno Smith

In an offense built around the run game, having a quarterback who excels as a play action passer remains imperative and while the sample size was somewhat limited for both players a year ago, Smith proved to be a far more proficient passer in these situations.

On 30 play action drop backs, Smith completed 14 out of 22 passes for 246 yards, 11.2 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, producing an excellent 141.3 passer rating. He did this despite the fact he was under constant duress working off play fakes, getting sacked six times and getting pressured on nearly 50 percent of those attempts (14).

With a near identical 30 drop backs, Lock wasn't near as effective, completing 14 out of 28 pass attempts for 221 yards, 7.9 yards per attempt, and an interception. He posted a 74.8 passer rating, but pressure also may have played a part in his struggles, as he was pressured on exactly 50 percent of his play action drop backs and sacked three times.

Under Pressure: Drew Lock

Over the years, the Seahawks have gotten by with subpar pass protection due to Wilson's brilliance escaping the pocket and improvising to extend plays. With a pair of rookie tackles potentially starting early, finding a quarterback who can similarly create under duress will be crucial, especially playing in the NFC West.

Somewhat ironically given his success on play action amid pressure, Smith didn't perform well at all when opponents turned up the heat on him last season. In fact, he posted abysmal numbers when pressured, completing only nine out of 28 pass attempts for 68 yards and 2.4 yards per attempt and his lone interception came on a play where he was flushed from the pocket. Taking 13 sacks in the process, he often held onto the ball too long, as evidenced by his average of 3.71 seconds to throw.

Smith possesses above average mobility at the quarterback position, but that didn't help him much maneuvering the pocket or extending plays when pressure came bearing down on him. Among quarterbacks pressured at least 40 times last year, while the offensive line deserves some of the blame as well, he finished first with 29.5 percent of pressures turning into sacks.

Though Lock didn't light it up when pressured last year and several quarterbacks produced better numbers, he completed nearly 50 percent of his passes for 185 yards, 6.4 yards per attempt, a touchdown, and two picks. He also did a better job unloading the football in a timely manner, taking nine sacks and posting an average time to throw of 3.19 seconds.

From a play extension perspective, Lock didn't fare much better than Smith, as 23 percent of pressures against him turned into sacks. He did, however, post slightly better numbers against the blitz, completing 63 percent of his passes with five or more defenders coming after him for 210 yards, 6.8 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and most importantly, no interceptions.

Third Down Productivity: Draw

Finishing 19th in the NFL in scoring and dead last in time of possession last season, chronic third down woes proved to be the Seahawks' greatest Achilles heel on offense. Unfortunately, neither quarterback vying to replace Wilson performed at a high level on third downs in 2021.

In four games spelling Wilson, Smith threw with great accuracy on third down, completing 15 out of 22 passes for 139 yards. But while he connected on nearly 70 percent of those throws, only eight of them moved the chains for a new set of downs and taking six sacks on third down situations limited him to a 31 percent conversion rate on 29 conversion attempts. For perspective, the Bears had the lowest third down conversion rate in the NFL at 34.7 percent.

Playing in six games total for the Broncos, Lock actually performed worse in the passing department, completing only 15 out of 31 third down attempts for 168 yards and an interception. But showing off his underrated athleticism, he ran for 45 yards and a touchdown on six rushing attempts, moving the chains four times with his legs, pushing the Broncos third down conversion rate to 28 percent.

For this category, with both Smith and Lock leading their respective offenses to subpar conversion rates on third down, neither holds an edge. Both will have much to prove in this capacity during training camp and the preseason.

Final Verdict

Based on extensive film study and combing through numerous statistics, Smith looks poised to push for the starting role after performing well in three starts for the Seahawks a year ago. He's the more polished passer and as Carroll has indicated multiple times this offseason, his familiarity with Waldron's offense will only further benefit him. For that reason, nobody should be counting him out of this competition, as he will have an immediate advantage from the outset working in his favor.

With that said, now entering his 10th NFL season, Smith likely doesn't have much room to develop at this stage of his career. The same can't be said for Lock, who arguably has better physical tools to work with and won't turn 26 years old until November. If he hits it off with Metcalf and Lockett and learns Waldron's scheme quickly - which is possible since it's similar to the one he played well in as a rookie in 2019 - he has a chance to make up ground quickly in OTAs and training camp.

Due to his untapped potential, there's a sense of mystery surrounding Lock and considering Schneider and Carroll were both high on him coming out of Missouri, he will get every opportunity to prove himself worthy of a starting gig. At the same time, Smith earned the respect of teammates in the locker room last year and did an admirable job orchestrating the offense amid tough circumstances. This battle will go down to the wire and a decision likely won't be made until deep in the preseason.