Copying Rams 'All In' Blueprint Won't Solve Problems Ailing Seahawks
This past weekend, the Bengals and Rams punched their respective tickets for Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium, setting the stage for an intriguing matchup between two franchises who took dramatically different routes to the big game.
Coming off of two previous seasons with a combined 6-25-1 record under coach Zac Taylor, Cincinnati ascended to the top of the AFC North posting a 10-7 mark thanks in large part to a homegrown core led by quarterback Joe Burrow, receiver Jamarr Chase, and safety Jessie Bates. To get the franchise over the hump, Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin landed several quality defensive players in free agency, including standout pass rusher Trey Hendrickson and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie.
As for the Rams, despite advancing to the NFC Divisional Round last season, they didn't rest on their laurels and made a significant swap at quarterback, dealing Jared Goff, two first-round picks, and a third-round pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Along the way to a 12-5 finish and a division title this season, they also dealt a second-round pick to the Broncos for pass rusher Von Miller before the deadline.
In total, the Rams have given up four first round picks and a second round pick to acquire Stafford, Miller, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey since 2019, continuing to deploy an "all in" approach to roster building while mortgaging future draft assets. While the long-term ramifications of such moves won't be known for at least a couple of years, those acquisitions have paid dividends with a Lombardi Trophy within reach.
In many ways, the Bengals' emergence draws parallels to when the Seahawks became a perennial contender. In 2012, they landed a franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson along with a future Hall of Fame linebacker in Bobby Wagner in the draft to go with a young core featuring cornerback Richard Sherman, safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, and linebacker K.J. Wright. The following offseason, general manager John Schneider signed defensive ends Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in free agency, paving the way for their first Super Bowl title.
But Schneider also has subscribed to the same roster construction handbook as Rams general manager Les Snead at times, first rolling the dice by trading a first-round pick to the Vikings for receiver Percy Harvin during that same offseason. Two years later, he took a similar gamble trading a first-round pick and center Max Unger to the Saints for tight end Jimmy Graham and before the 2020 season, he dealt a pair of first rounders to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams.
Considering the Rams success in their own division trading high picks for star players, coupled with a quarterback in Wilson who has two years left on his contract and has been the subject of constant trade speculation, Schneider may feel inclined to make such a bold move again in an effort to get the Seahawks back in contention. But while he should keep his eyes peeled for the right deal, history and the state of his roster suggest he should avoid the temptation.
Looking back, none of the three trades Schneider orchestrated sending at least one first rounder elsewhere for proven commodities worked out near as well as Snead's moves to acquire Stafford and Ramsey, who have been instrumental building blocks for an NFC champion. The same couldn't be said for Harvin or Graham, and at least to this point, can't be said for Adams after two seasons either.
Harvin did return a kickoff for a touchdown to help Seattle blow out Denver 43-8 in Super Bowl XLIX, so from that perspective, he did contribute to bringing a Lombardi Trophy to the Emerald City. But he missed most of his first season with the team due to a hip injury and caught just 23 passes for 150 yards and no touchdowns before unceremoniously being shipped out of town to the New York Jets for a bag of peanuts midway through the 2014 season.
As for Graham, he made a pair of Pro Bowls and caught 18 touchdowns from Wilson in three seasons with the franchise. Statistically, he wasn't a bust like Harvin was. But at the same time, throughout most of his tenure in Seattle, the coaching staff tried to squeeze a square into a round peg by turning him into an inline blocking tight end rather than playing to his strengths as a receiving mismatch. It never seemed like the right fit for the player or the team.
Those two underwhelming returns on trades didn't stop Schneider from staying aggressive and executing blockbuster moves, however. Seeking a game-changing defensive playmaker like the Rams landed in Ramsey, he doubled the ante by dealing a pair of first-round selections to the Jets for Adams two years ago.
Like the first two moves, Schneider's gamble hasn't paid off as envisioned so far. While Adams did set an NFL record for defensive backs with 9.5 sacks in 2020 and earned Second-Team All-Pro honors, he has endured his share of issues in coverage, hasn't made the impact plays Seattle expected from him, and has undergone surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder two consecutive years. Making matters even worse, the team's poor 7-10 record this past season handed the Jets a top-10 draft choice in April.
Why didn't these trades work out as planned? In the case of Harvin, durability concerns were unfortunate and limited his production, but reported issues in the locker room ultimately led to his quick departure. Graham and Adams both arrived in town with unique strengths for their respective positions, only for the Seahawks to struggle to figure out how to best utilize them within the confines of their scheme.
An argument can be made that Schneider hasn't made the best use of his resources either. His decision to send a second-round pick to the Texans for Duane Brown in 2017 wound up being an excellent trade, giving the team a top-flight blind side protector in front of Wilson at one of the most important positions in the game. But the four first round picks were burned on a receiver, a tight end, and a safety, three positions that may not offer enough value for such a steep investment.
With his job possibly on the line heading into the 2022 season following a last place finish in the NFC West, Schneider may not be as focused on long-term roster planning as he used to be. He knows that he needs to win now and urgency can lead to desperation when it comes to pulling the trigger on bold moves. If the right team makes a talented pass rusher or offensive lineman available, he certainly will entertain the possibility at premium positions that could be worth the cost.
But while Seattle has enough talent to push for a playoff spot again next season and possibly more with a productive offseason, the team has enough holes on both sides of the ball that forgoing another first round pick in 2023 or even a second round pick to land a star likely wouldn't be enough by itself to contend for a title. In the process, a roster that could desperately use an infusion of young talent at critical positions will have minimal draft capital to achieve that goal.
Simply put, the Seahawks aren't one piece away like the Rams were when they dealt for Stafford last spring. They need to find a long-term successor to Brown at left tackle and have other long-term needs along the offensive line. They could use an upgrade at tight end. Wagner isn't getting any younger, while three of the team's four starters in the secondary are hitting free agency. This plethora of issues won't be solved by making a headline-grabbing trade for one star player.
Instead, Schneider's focus should revolve around improving the team through other methods, including free agency and stockpiling young talent to develop through the draft as the Bengals did, which would set them up to be better-positioned for facilitating all-in moves down the road.