How Jared Goff Extension Could Impact Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks QB Situation

Statistically, Jared Goff has been slightly better than Geno Smith in most categories, but both have been top-10 quarterbacks since 2022, which could make negotiations difficult for the Seahawks.

Earning a much-deserved pay day after guiding the Detroit Lions to the NFC Championship Game in January, Jared Goff cashed in to become one of the five highest-paid quarterbacks in annual salary, and the ripple effects of his deal likely will be felt by several other teams around the NFL.

Among those franchises who could be impacted the most by Goff's new deal, the Seattle Seahawks quarterback situation beyond 2024 may sit atop the list. With two years left on his current contract, veteran Geno Smith's deal remains one of the better bargains in the league with his $26.4 million cap hit ranking 13th this season. Even with his cap hit set to skyrocket to $38.5 million in 2025, his contract still sits a reasonable 12th among quarterbacks.

But while Smith has been named the undisputed starter by both general manager John Schneider and coach Mike Macdonald heading into 2024, the Seahawks acquired Sam Howell from Commanders in March, creating questions about the future at quarterback. The 23-year old immediately gives the organization a possible heir apparent on the roster, making the team's decision-making process under center beyond this season all the more fascinating.

Coming off a second straight Pro Bowl nod, Geno Smith will enter 2024 as Seattle's clear starter, but his future with the franchise likely will depend on how he performs in Ryan Grubb's offense. / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

"We have a really cool room right now. We're trying to add a couple guys right now and we'll continue to work it, so we'll see where it goes," Schneider said after the conclusion of the 2024 NFL Draft. "We're always looking at that position. I can't tell you what our long-term plan is because I honestly don't know, but Sam [Howell] is a huge part of it because we made a major trade to get Sam before we got here."

Since taking over for long-time starter Russell Wilson two seasons ago, Smith has been one of the NFL's best stories, ranking in the top-10 in most major passing categories during that span. Along with 50 touchdown passes, he ranks fourth in completion percentage, eighth in passer rating, and first in game-winning drives orchestrated, winning Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2022 and earning back-to-back Pro Bowl selections in the process.

However, Smith wasn't quite as effective in his second year as Seattle's starter under center, seeing his yardage, completion rate, and touchdown totals dip significantly. Missing two games with a groin injury in December contributed to that drop off and after a slow start, he finished the season playing some of his best ball, throwing nine touchdowns with only two interceptions and averaging 7.3 yards per attempt in his final six starts.

Still, given that regression, Smith's status as the Seahawks starter was up in the air once the organization moved on from coach Pete Carroll and replaced him with Macdonald in January. Though his signing bonus was paid out early in a restructure, the trade for Howell further muddied the picture, leading to much speculation about plans at the position in the next few years, which has led to endless questions that Schneider has clearly grown tired of answering this offseason.

Comparing Seattle's situation to Detroit, only a few short years ago, the Lions found themselves in a similar situation after trading Matthew Stafford to the Rams for Goff, who had been jettisoned only a few years after leading the team to a Super Bowl appearance. But the former No. 1 pick has blossomed in coordinator Ben Johnson's offense, stacking up against the best quarterbacks in the league and silencing any talks about drafting a successor.

Over the past two seasons, coinciding with Detroit's rise to legitimate Super Bowl contender, Goff has vaulted from questioned starter into one of the NFL's elite signal callers, throwing 59 touchdown passes compared to just 19 interceptions while connecting on 66.2 percent of his attempts. During that time frame, despite being a high-volume gun slinger, he has been one of the most efficient passers in the league, ranking third overall with a 1.6 percent interception rate while being in the top five in touchdowns, passing yards, and passer rating.

As impressive as those numbers are, the Seahawks have received quite similar production over the previous two seasons from Smith, who outplayed Goff in two head-to-head matchups that resulted in road wins over the Lions.

Comparatively, Smith has thrown for only 7,906 yards, or more than 1,000 yards less than Goff. But the two veterans have near-identical touchdown rates, interception rates, and passer ratings, with each player ranking in the top-10 in all three metrics. Smith also has posted a higher completion rate with more game-winning drives and more contributions as a runner with 521 rushing yards, adding value to his resume from a dual-threat standpoint.

Flourishing in Detroit, Jared Goff ranks in the top five among quarterbacks in touchdowns, yardage, and passer rating over the past two seasons. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Interestingly, from an advanced analysis standpoint, a strong argument can be made Smith has been the superior quarterback. Per Pro Football Focus charting, Smith completed 32 "big time throws" compared to Goff's 20 last season and he had an even larger advantage in 2022, completing 34 such throws compared to Goff's 18. When under pressure, he connected on nearly 15 percent more of his passes and threw four more touchdowns compared to Goff in those two seasons.

Showcasing Smith's precision as a passer, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has ranked in the top seven in Completion Percentage Above Expectation in both of his seasons as a starter for the Seahawks, including ranking first in that metric in 2022. As for Goff, he finished outside of the top 20 that season and was only slightly better last year.

Looking beyond those numbers, Smith had to deal with more difficult circumstances behind an offensive line battered by injuries a year ago. While Detroit ranked a respectable ninth in PFF's pass block grade metric and provided sterling protection for Goff, Seattle ranked a dreadful 28th in the category, consistently struggling to keep rushers away from the veteran quarterback, making his numbers under duress all the more impressive.

At the end of the day, NFL teams pay quarterbacks for wins above everything else. While Smith did lead Seattle to a playoff berth in 2022, the team got blown out in San Francisco in the wild card round and missed the postseason completely last season. After narrowly missing the playoffs one year prior, Goff marched Detroit to the NFC Championship Game and nearly dethroned San Francisco on the road, checking off a major box his peer has yet to come close to achieving.

Basking in the glow of that rare deep playoff run, Goff signed the dotted line for a whopping $170 million in guaranteed money on Monday, securing his place as the Lions franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future without a viable threat to push for his job. On the flip side, while Smith will receive top-15 quarterback money this season, he's four years older than his peer and consequently, his future remains unclear with Howell now on the roster and ready to turn up the heat on him.

What does that scenario entail for Smith and Seattle's intentions at quarterback? Schneider has granted himself flexibility at the most important position in pro sports by bringing Howell on board and if Smith doesn't thrive in new coordinator Ryan Grubb's offense, a move to the young gunslinger could be coming sooner rather than later after he flashed potential in his lone season as a starter in Washington with 21 touchdown passes.

At the same time, pushing such a button will only further motivate Smith, who quite frankly hasn't received the respect from the fan base for his performance he deserves. Assuming Howell's presence helps him elevate his game to a whole other level and lead his team on a deep playoff run, the Seahawks will undoubtedly benefit on the field, but Schneider will then have to decide whether or not to open up the checkbook to pay him with Goff further raising the market price for quality quarterback play.