Seahawks Free Agent Primer: Geno Smith to Be Rewarded With Multi-Year Deal?

Wheeling and dealing from the pocket, Geno Smith emerged as one of the best stories of the 2022 season leading the Seattle Seahawks to the playoffs. Ready to get paid after a career year, will the franchise oblige?

On the heels of a surprising 9-8 season that culminated in an unexpected playoff berth, the Seattle Seahawks have plenty of roster questions to address heading into another important offseason as they continue their quest back to Super Bowl contention.

When the new league year opens on March 15, Seattle will have 23 players scheduled to hit the market as unrestricted free agents. Three players will be restricted free agents and five will be exclusive rights free agents, while several other key veterans such as linebacker Uchenna Nwosu will be entering the final season of their respective deals ready to negotiate extensions.

Over the next several weeks, I will break down each and every one of the Seahawks' unrestricted free agents by revisiting their 2022 seasons, assessing why they should or should not be re-signed, breaking down an ideal contract, and making an early prediction on whether or not the player will return in 2023.

Headlining Seattle's group of free agents after a historic revival season that culminated in a Pro Bowl selection, will the team pay up to retain Geno Smith as their franchise quarterback?

Season In Review

Returning on a one-year contract worth only $3.5 million in base salary, Smith partook in a competition against Drew Lock and earned Seattle's starting quarterback job as a replacement for Russell Wilson. After a slow start in the first two games of the season, the coaching staff took off the training wheels and cut the former West Virginia star loose, as he threw for over 900 yards and seven touchdowns from Week 3 to Week 5.

Receiving MVP attention for a brief spell after the Seahawks raced out to a 6-3 start, he wrapped up an unexpected breakout season by breaking Wilson's single-season passing yards record, becoming only the third quarterback in team history to throw 30 or more touchdowns, and setting a new franchise record for completion percentage, all while leading the team to the postseason. Putting sugar on top of the sundae, he captured AP Comeback Player of the Year honors and earned the PFWA's Most Improved Player Award.

Why Seattle Should Re-Sign Him

Thriving in coordinator Shane Waldron's offense with a bevy of weapons around him at receiver, tight end, and running back, Smith didn't post a near-70 percent completion rate by dumping the ball off all the time. In fact, he may have been the most proficient deep ball passer in the entire NFL last season, completing a league-high 14 touchdown passes of 20 or more yards and posting north of a 120.0 passer rating on such attempts.

Consistently firing the ball into tight windows with precision, NFL Next Gen Stats credited Smith with a 4.4 percent completion rate above expectation, the highest among qualified quarterbacks. In addition to his elite accuracy and deep ball prowess, he also showed off better-than-advertised athleticism, rushing for 366 yards and averaging 5.3 yards per carry as a runner, extending several drives over the course of the season with his legs.

Why Seattle Should Let Him Walk

As well as Smith played for the vast majority of the 2022 season, his performance regressed as the Seahawks slumped in the final two months. Shouldering the burden for an offense without a viable run game for a prolonged period of time in the second half, he started to press and make poor decisions with the football as a result, leading to seven interceptions in the final seven games.

Away from simply seeing a spike in turnovers due to questionable choices from the pocket, Smith's completion percentage dipped substantially in the final five games, as he completed just 63.3 percent of his pass attempts. During that span, he had his four worst games in regard to completion percentage, including connecting on just 58 percent of his passes in a devastating home loss to Carolina in Week 14.

Ideal Contract

Three years, $97 million

Prediction

While it may seem like an easy choice for the Seahawks to fork over $30-plus million per year to Smith after a season in which he tied with MVP Patrick Mahomes for the most multi-touchdown pass outings, unique circumstances complicate the situation for the franchise. On one hand, he only has 51 career starts under his belt and has built excellent chemistry with star receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Waldron's offense, which would suggest his best football may still be ahead of him. But he also had a 58.8 percent completion rate for his career prior to last year and his late season decline could be a red flag for future performance.

With all factors considered, however, Seattle would be foolish to let Smith go, especially after he earned a lucrative extension performing as a clear top-10 quarterback in 2022. Playing with great confidence in the perfect scheme for his strengths and numerous weapons around him, assuming the offensive line improves across the board and the run game has better consistency, he should be poised to continue his ascendance in 2023 and beyond. At worst, look for the organization to franchise tag him to extend the negotiations window with a multi-year contract with top-12 quarterback money remaining the end game.

Previous Seahawks Free Agent Primers

Rashaad Penny | Poona Ford | Austin Blythe | Cody Barton

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