Seahawks QBs Training Camp Preview: Bold Predictions, Projected Depth Chart
RENTON, Wash. - On the heels of a historic season that culminated in leading to the Seattle Seahawks to a playoff berth and a Comeback Player of the Year award, Geno Smith finds himself in a far different situation than he did this time a year ago.
With a new three-year contract in hand, Smith won't be engaged in a heated competition against Drew Lock or anyone else to replace Russell Wilson this time around. Coming off a season in which he led the NFL in completion rate, finished fifth with 30 touchdown passes, and broke the franchise record for passing yards in a single season, he deservedly has job security unlike any previous point in his career.
But after being a backup for seven years with three teams before his unexpected resurgence last season, Smith still isn't writing his critics back. Motivated to prove his breakout campaign wasn't a fluke, as he told reporters during Seattle's mandatory minicamp last month, he certainly hasn't approached his preparation any differently.
In fact, if anything, Smith took his offseason program to another level, working tirelessly to sharpen his craft with the goal of putting up even better numbers in his second season under center orchestrating coordinator Shane Waldron's system.
"In my mind, no," Smith said. "If it is different, I just want to work hard and be better. That's really it. But in my mind, I keep the same mentality, Drew [Lock] and I and Holton [Ahlers], we are competing our butts off and that's competition every day. We're trying to see who is the best quarterback out on the field every single time."
Having been to rock bottom before, it shouldn't come as a surprise Smith isn't resting on his laurels even after receiving a new contract worth up to $105 million. As for whether or not he can match or exceed his impressive numbers from a year ago, there are plenty of reasons to believe he can.
On his way to one of the best individual passing seasons in franchise history, Smith didn't break Wilson's single season passing yardage record or complete nearly 70 percent of his passes benefiting from a checkdown heavy offense. Picking up where his predecessor left off, he shined as one of the NFL's premier deep ball passers and according to Pro Football Focus, he led the league with 14 touchdown passes and a 47.6 percent completion rate on 20-plus yards throws.
Success as a vertical passer can be a bit sporadic year-to-year, but Smith should be well-equipped to avoid a significant letdown in 2023 given the weapons that Seattle has assembled around him. Along with 1,000-yard receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett returning, the team invested a first-round pick in Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will immediately improve the team's intermediate passing game as a dynamic route runner from the slot with a penchant for moving the chains.
With Smith-Njigba and a quality tight end group featuring Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson all capable of doing damage in the passing game, Metcalf and Lockett should have more one-on-one opportunities in coverage than a year ago, generating more chances for Smith to let it fly downfield.
Geno Smith tied for the NFL lead with 12 games throwing multiple touchdown passes and his 14 scoring tosses traveling 20 or more yards ranked first in the league.
© Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Additionally, accuracy tends to be a trait that stays reliable year-to-year and dating back to his four-game stint replacing an injured Wilson in 2021, no quarterback has hit the bullseye more consistently than Smith. During that span, he has connected on 69.6 percent of his passes while throwing 35 touchdowns compared to only 12 interceptions, posting an excellent 101.2 passer rating.
Of course, skeptics who aren't sold on Smith replicating his production from a year ago can point to regression on a number of fronts in the final eight games last season. Most notably, after throwing only four interceptions in Seattle's first 10 games, good fortune caught up with him as he finished tied for third in the NFL with seven picks in the final seven games. Per Pro Football Focus, he led the league with 16 turnover-worthy throws in that span, a sign of poor decision making forcing the football.
Considering the volatility of deep passing on a yearly basis, Smith will also have to be far more effective in the intermediate passing game to ensure another strong season. Though he excelled in the quick game, he actually graded out as one of the league's worst quarterbacks on passes traveling between 10 and 19 yards, including ranking 15th out of 22 qualified quarterbacks with a 57.9 percent completion rate and tying for fourth with six interceptions.
Amping up the level of concern, PFF charged Smith with 16 turnover-worthy throws in the intermediate passing game, four more than the next quarterback on the list. His 11.3 percent turnover-worthy throw percentage was nearly three whole percent higher than Giants quarterback Daniel Jones on those pass attempts.
But on a positive note for those arguing in his defense, Smith did throw 13 touchdown passes traveling 10 to 19 yards, second behind only Bills star Josh Allen. One of the more "boom or bust" quarterbacks in the NFL in this department last year, the Seahawks will be counting on the addition of a high-upside security blanket of Smith-Njigba's caliber helping improve numbers across the board in the intermediate game.
"He's so impressive," Smith said of Smith-Njigba last month. "Very smooth route runner. Natural hands. Also the game is not too big for him. You can see he's got that self-confidence that you look for. He's learning. He's picking up his assignments, learning the offense, like all the other rookies and new guys. Jaxon has been tremendous so far and I'm just looking forward to see him grow and grow as the weeks come about."
Immediately after the Seahawks saw their surprise season come to an abrupt end with a wild card loss to the 49ers in January, Smith outlined all of the areas he felt he needed to improve, starting with playing "smarter" under center. Since then, with the franchise rewarding him with a new deal, he has been in attack mode working diligently on the practice field and traveling to meet up with teammates in search of ways to take the team's offense to the next level.
Though skeptics still exist even after playing like a top-five quarterback for the majority of the 2022 season, Smith has a far different perspective now as a 32-year old veteran than he did when he first entered the NFL as a second-round pick with the New York Jets. Cherishing every single moment and grateful for his opportunity to lead an ascending team, he's excited for the shot to show what he can do once again steering the ship in Seattle and thinks his best football remains ahead of him.
If that ends up being the case, after a surprising playoff appearance in Smith's first season at the helm, this season has a chance to be a special one for the Seahawks with the potential for a far deeper postseason run. That's a lot of weight to put on one player's shoulders, but the veteran happily will take on the burden that comes with being a franchise quarterback and as evidenced by his new contract, the franchise believes they are in good hands with him at the wheel moving into 2023 and beyond.
Projected Depth Chart
Competition to Watch
Lock vs. Ahlers: After weighing his options on the free agent market, without a starting opportunity presented to him elsewhere, Lock returned to the Seahawks on a one-year deal worth $4 million. Despite losing the competition to Smith a year ago, the coaching staff was impressed by his work ethic and how he developed on the practice field over the course of the season. Just 26 years old with a quality array of physical tools and prior NFL starting experience, it would be a major upset if he wasn't the primary backup come September.
However, coach Pete Carroll raved about Ahlers during Seattle's rookie minicamp and the dual-threat lefty comes into the NFL boasting an impressive resume dating back to his prep days in North Carolina. One of the most prolific passers in AAC history at East Carolina, he steadily improved his accuracy over five seasons with the program and won MVP honors at the Hulu Bowl and the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl earlier this year, playing at his best in the spotlight. Given his pedigree, he may be more viable competition for Lock than advertised and could make things interesting outplaying his veteran counterpart in the preseason.
Wild Card
Ahlers: While Ahlers doesn't have the strongest arm and his throwing mechanics feature a bit of a hitch, he offers more than enough zip to make NFL throws and he has come a long way accuracy-wise since being installed as a freshman starter at East Carolina. One of college football's most accomplished passers upon his graduation, he threw for nearly 14,000 yards and tossed 97 touchdowns for the Pirates, shattering the school record books.
But what truly makes Ahlers a dark horse to watch competing against Lock is his mobility, as the 230-pound quarterback bulldozed his way to 1,446 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground. A deft passer on the run who can extend plays with his legs, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron may have fun in the preseason utilizing him in the bootleg game and mixing in designed QB runs to take advantage of his playmaking ability.
Bold Predictions
1. Thanks to an even better supporting cast, Smith will exceed his passing yardage and touchdown pass totals from 2022.
Out of all the veteran quarterbacks returning this year, none may have benefited more from offseason additions than Smith, who will benefit from Smith-Njigba joining forces with Metcalf and Lockett to form one of the most dangerous receiving trios in the NFL. Away from those dynamic triplets on the outside, the Seahawks further bolstered their run game by drafting UCLA's Zach Charbonnet to pair up with Ken Walker III at running back and also invested two day three selections on Michigan center Olu Oluwatimi and LSU guard Anthony Bradford.
If Seattle had stood pat, Smith likely would have still had one of the top-five skill position arsenals at his disposal. But now, he will have an even more lethal set of receivers and running backs to go with a talented trio of tight ends and a young offensive line primed to take a big step forward in 2023, setting the offense up to explode and potentially put up video game numbers.
2. Continuing to grow in Waldron's offense, Smith will lead the Seahawks to a top-10 finish in third down and red zone efficiency.
Last season, despite finishing in the top 10 in total points, the Seahawks finished 20th in third down conversion rate and a dismal 27th in red zone touchdown conversion rate. If there's an area where the fortified supporting cast around Smith will help them take the biggest step forward, Smith-Njigba and Charbonnet should immediately shore up the team's lackluster production in both categories from a year ago.
Two years removed from a 1,500-plus yard season at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba's game is largely predicated on his precise route running, but his toughness winning contested catches in the middle of the field and creating after the catch will be equally invaluable assets to Seattle on third down. As for Charbonnet, his physical, downhill style at 214 pounds will give Waldron an ideal change-of-pace back to complement Walker in short yardage and goal line situations.
Additionally, assuming tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas show marked improvements after starting as rookies a year ago alongside upgraded personnel at center and right guard, the offensive line has a chance to be an unexpected area of strength. Better pass protection will make Smith more effective on third down by default, while the run game would benefit in short yardage situations as well.
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