Geno Smith Franchise Tag: How Could it Impact Seahawks Offseason?

Scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in March, the Seattle Seahawks now know what percentage of their remaining cap space will be required to bring back Geno Smith if they can't strike an agreement on a long-term deal.

Following the reveal of the NFL's salary cap for 2023 on Monday, the Seattle Seahawks now know how much deploying the franchise tag to retain Pro Bowl quarterback Geno Smith will impact their salary cap.

While franchise tag values aren't tied to the salary cap and instead derive from the average of the five highest-paid players at each position group, the news coming from the league on Monday remains significant for Seattle as the front office tries to hammer out a new deal with Smith. Per NFL Network, all 32 teams were informed the cap would rise to a record $224.8 million next season, leaping nearly $17 million compared to 2022.

What does this mean for the Seahawks? Adjusting estimates at OverTheCap.com to the newly established cap value, the franchise currently has $33.235 million in space available heading towards free agency.

With franchise tags paying out a fully guaranteed salary for one season, a non-exclusive tender based off of average salaries for the five highest-paid quarterbacks over the previous five seasons would be worth $32.146 million and carry a cap hit of the same value. An exclusive tender would push north of $40 million for 2023 while eliminating the ability of other teams to make a matching offer.

On one hand, being forced to slap the expensive franchise tag on Smith to keep the veteran quarterback for 2023 would make it far more difficult for general manager John Schneider to address Seattle's other roster needs. A non-exclusive tender would nearly eat up all of the franchise's current available camp room, while an exclusive tender would far surpass that limit.

In either case, to be able to afford Smith at such price points, the Seahawks would need to make multiple moves to create instant camp room through cap casualties, extensions, restructured contracts, or trades.

But on the other hand, even with a one-year, fully-guaranteed tender exceeding $32 million, Smith would have the 10th highest cap hit at the quarterback position and his cap hit would remain less than 15 percent of the team's total cap. Ranking in the top five in completion percentage, touchdown passes, and passer rating last season, that would seem like a reasonable cost based off of his production alone.

Based on comments by coach Pete Carroll, Schneider, and Smith himself, all parties would like to see a reunion in 2023 and negotiations should accelerate in coming days as both sides aim to reach a deal. Avoiding the franchise tag in favor of a multi-year deal with signing bonuses and other mechanisms to help lessen the quarterback's cap hit would be most ideal for the Seahawks, allowing them a bit more financial flexibility while still ensuring they have a reliable signal caller under center.

However, Schneider has already made it clear publicly that the Seahawks have a line they won't cross to re-sign Smith. Will that be above or below the cost of the franchise tag, which he has rarely ever used in his previous 13 years at the helm? That remains to be seen.

If a smidgen over $32 million becomes too rich for Schneider's tastes and he chooses to let Smith hit the market, Seattle will let things play out and see if the price drops back down to where it is comfortable bringing him back. With other standout veterans such as Tom Brady, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo potentially available to sign and a strong crop of incoming draft prospects, interest from the rest of the league may be lukewarm paying him like a top-10 or top-15 quarterback.

But even with the Seahawks holding the No. 5 overall pick thanks to the Russell Wilson trade with the Broncos, such a decision presents plenty of risk, especially with backup Drew Lock also slated for free agency. There's never a guarantee an incoming rookie will be ready to play at a high level right away and going with another veteran as a "bridge" alternative away from Smith could create division in the locker room while also negatively impacting on-field results.

At the end of the day, it's hard to envision Carroll and Schneider letting Smith walk after how well he performed last season running Shane Waldron's offense. They will do everything in their power to re-sign him, including strongly considering the franchise tag simply as a means for continued discussions on a long-term deal.

But as proven by jettisoning Wilson last spring, Seattle's brain trust isn't afraid to roll the dice at quarterback either and their decision-making process may be largely dependent on how they feel about the incoming crop of rookie quarterbacks. Choosing not to franchise him before the deadline in early March would be a signal they have a backup plan in mind rather than putting all their eggs in one basket at the expense of other needs for Smith.

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