Seahawks' Future Plans Ride On Crucial Final Five Games of 2023 Season

Currently set to miss the postseason with five weeks remaining in the 2023 season, if a strong finish doesn't vault the franchise back into contention, substantial personnel and/or coaching changes likely will be on the horizon for the Seattle Seahawks.

Entering the final home stretch of the 2023 season in the midst of a slump losing four of their previous five games, the month of December could have major ripple effects on the Seattle Seahawks game plan in 2024 and beyond.

As things stand rolling into Week 14, following a difficult 41-35 loss to Dallas last Thursday night, Seattle sits behind two surging teams in Green Bay and Los Angeles for the final wild card spot in the NFC. Following a huge win over the Chiefs, the Packers currently hold the seventh seed by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Rams, who swept the Seahawks in a pair of divisional games earlier in the season.

With the schedule set to only get tougher with back-to-back games against the 49ers and Eagles in the next two weeks, the Seahawks have little margin for error from this point forward and at minimum must find a way to earn a split against the NFC's top two teams. Losing both of those games would drop them to 6-8 on the season, ensuring they would fail to win double digit games and putting them on the brink of playoff elimination.

After Seattle surprised with a 9-8 finish last season that culminated in a wild card berth, failing to return to the postseason would be a massive letdown for coach Pete Carroll's team, especially after starting with a promising 5-2 record. Collapsing in similar fashion to last fall when they lost five of six in the second half would likely guarantee substantial personnel and/or coaching changes with the franchise at a crossroads.

Over the next five weeks, no player or coach may be under more pressure and scrutiny than Smith, who hasn't been able to replicate his numbers from a breakout Comeback Player of the Year season in 2022. Though he signed a three-year extension back in March, with his cap hit set to balloon to $31 million in 2024 and his salary becoming guaranteed on the fifth day of the waiver period, the team may have a difficult decision awaiting at quarterback.

On one hand, as Smith demonstrated last week throwing for 334 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys, he remains more than capable of performing like a top-10 caliber quarterback. He's only a year removed from leading the league in completion percentage and finishing fourth in touchdown passes and even with his cap hit skyrocketing $21 million compared to this year, he will still only be the 12th-highest paid quarterback in the NFL next season.

But while Smith has played quite well in spurts, his second year as the starter in Seattle has been defined by inconsistency and regression. Through 12 games, he has plummeted to 18th in completion rate, 16th in touchdown passes, and 19th in passer rating, all categories he ranked in the top five a season ago.

With his contract carrying major cap hits north of $30 million in 2024 and 2025, the next month could dictate Geno Smith's future with the Seahawks / © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

From an individual game standpoint, Smith tied Patrick Mahomes for the most games with multiple touchdown passes (12) last season, but only has five such games in 2023 so far. After throwing his ninth pick of the year in Dallas, he also has nearly equaled his interception total from last season, which has contributed to his significant drop off in passer rating and QBR.

Now 33 years old and making top-15 quarterback money, Smith's future in the Pacific Northwest could be riding on how he and Seattle's offense performs over the next month. If he's able to build off Thursday's outing and carry the team back to the playoffs, though drafting a quarterback remains a strong - if not inevitable - possibility, his chances of keeping the starting job next season improve exponentially.

Directly correlating with Smith's production, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron may be play calling for his job over the next five weeks as well. Coinciding with the team's 6-6 start, the offense has been largely underachieved this season, scoring 20 or fewer points in half of their games and producing just three offensive touchdowns in a four-game stretch from Week 9 to Week 12.

In the midst of his third season as coordinator, Waldron's offense has regressed across the board compared to last season. Along with dropping from ninth in points per game to 14th, they have plummeted from 19th to 27th in rushing yards and 20th to 26th in third down conversion rate.

Like Smith, Waldron will be hoping an offensive explosion with five touchdown drives against a quality Cowboys defense will be a sign of things to come down the stretch. But if the unit fails to consistently put points on the board as they have for much of the season, Carroll may have no other choice but to turn the page and pursue a new coordinator after the season.

Looking past 2023, jobs will also be on the line on defense for the Seahawks over the next month and change, starting with several high-profile stars in the back seven.

At linebacker, starters Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks will both become unrestricted free agents in March. The 33-year old Wagner has been a steadying presence in the middle and remained productive with 127 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and three pass breakups, but his age and wear-and-tear could complicate matters bringing him back for a 13th season. As for Brooks, he's closing in on 100 tackles coming off an ACL tear and Seattle wants him back long-term, but price will be key factor.

In the secondary, as two of the highest-paid players at their position, safeties Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams will need to elevate their respective games in the next month to ensure their futures with the franchise.

Now in the second year of a three-year extension, Diggs only has one interception and two pass breakups so far in 12 games and while he's already amassed 67 tackles, per Pro Football Focus, his 16 missed tackles ranks first among safeties. Coming off a torn quad tendon injury, Adams has had the same difficulties getting ball carriers to the ground with 12 missed tackles and a 22.2 percent missed tackle rate, the highest mark in the league.

With both players having cap hits surpassing $21 million in 2024, if Seattle isn't receiving enough bang for its buck from two of its highest-priced assets, general manager John Schneider may be inclined to cut losses by eating significant dead money and hit the reset button at one or both safety spots to create cap flexibility.

Much like Waldron, defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt may also be feeling the temperature of his coaching seat heating up. While the Seahawks have made strides stopping the run after ranking 30th in that department last season, they have regressed defending the pass, dropping from 13th to 20th this year with far fewer turnovers created. This has contributed to the team once again ranking 25th in points allowed and giving up 30 or more points in five games this season.

The NFL remains a bottom line business and after opening the season with heightened expectations, Seattle has yet to live up to those standards. Ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense and defense, everyone from the players to the coaches have contributed to the underwhelming results in the standings to this point.

Fortunately, the Seahawks still have enough time to right the ship and fulfill their goals of getting back to the playoffs and getting hot at the right time to potentially do some damage in January, which would add job security for a number of players and coaches. But if they aren't able to rebound from a rough November and fail to qualify for the postseason, wholesale changes on the roster as well as Carroll's staff could be on the horizon as a consequence in an occupation defined solely by wins and losses.

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