Seattle Seahawks Offense Shining, Balanced in 12 Personnel at the Bye Week
The Seattle Seahawks beat the New York Giants 24-3 in Week 4 to get them to 3-1 at the bye week. With no game to tune in for Sunday, it’s an ample opportunity to reflect on the “how” and “why” for some of Seattle’s lingering questions.
One such hesitation is the performance of first-round receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Many expected the acquisition to signal a pass-heavy offense operating significantly out of 11 personnel, where his talents would complement star receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
That has only been partly true.
The majority of the Seahawks’ offensive plays have come from 11 personnel, though on first down, they lean on it 43 percent of the time, the 25th-most in football (via nfelo).
Smith-Njigba, though, has yet to live up to expectations. A preseason wrist injury certainly makes more life difficult and is a legitimate reason for optimism as the season goes on. However, for now, the numbers aren’t there. He has 12 catches for 62 yards and no touchdowns through four games. Not yet does Seattle have its middle-of-the-field dynamo à la Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp.
Even so, the Seattle offense is finding success. The Seahawks rank seventh in expected points added per play and fourth in success rate. Making that more impressive is the injuries sustained at offensive tackle. Offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas have played less than a fifth of Seattle’s snaps.
Finding success, subsequently, has come out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends).
The Seahawks have called on this personnel package on 29.07 percent of plays this season, and their expected points added per play (0.26) and success rate (66 percent) are both elite (data via The Scout). Furthermore, they are also generating explosive plays out of (generally) less dynamic personnel.
Leaning on tight ends has been a remarkable success, even if most didn’t see it coming. A second tight end means defenses must respect the run, loading the box or coming out in base defenses. If not, they risk getting out-muscled by Seattle’s offensive line.
They are running 40 percent of the time out of 12 personnel, compared to less than a quarter of plays from 11 personnel. This balanced approach is perhaps fueling that explosive play rate, as they are continuing to eviscerate defenses when they do go into base. Against four defensive backs, the Seahawks are creating an explosive play 28.3 percent of the time, the best mark in football.
This subset of the playbook allows offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to mitigate the loss of those tackles, giving quarterback Geno Smith enough time to aggressively move the ball, perhaps his biggest strength.
Keeping the slot receiver, Smith-Njigba, off the field may be a consequence, but the way this offense is rolling, it’s a worthy price to play. Down the stretch, Seattle’s willingness to go to three-receiver sets when healthy could make them even more potent.
For now, though, they’ve found a recipe that’s working, as unconventional as it may be.