Seahawks vs. Jets: Breaking Down Seattle's Playoff Chances Entering Week 17

To stay in the playoff hunt, the Seattle Seahawks obviously need to beat the New York Jets on New Year's Day. But what else could help or hurt their chances of earning a Wild Card berth next weekend?

Following their fifth defeat in six games in a 24-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Eve, it's hard to believe the Seattle Seahawks still have much of a pulse in the NFC playoff picture.

But despite their prolonged funk that has now spanned more than a month and a half after a surprising 6-3 start, Seattle still controls its postseason destiny to an extent. With two games left to play, if coach Pete Carroll's team can bounce back and close out with a pair of wins over the New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams, there's still a decent chance to earn a Wild Card berth.

Benefiting from the Commanders losing to the 49ers and Lions losing to the Panthers this weekend, per FiveThirtyEight.com, the Seahawks will enter Week 17 with a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs. If quarterback Geno Smith enacts some revenge against his former team and helps them beat the Jets at Lumen Field on New Year's Day, those odds will jump up to 43 percent, but they will need a bit of help to further improve their chances heading towards the season finale.

In the good news department, since Seattle beat Detroit on the road in Week 4, Detroit's outcome against Chicago has little bearing on the situation. Even if the Lions beat the Bears at home, the Seahawks still have a 43 percent chance of making the playoffs thanks to that tiebreaker. The Giants losing to the Colts in an upset would also markedly help their chances, pushing the odds up to 52 percent.

But since the Giants remain two games in front of the Seahawks in the loss column, the Commanders and surging Packers will be the two teams to watch most closely. In the event Seattle wins on Sunday, a Washington victory would push playoff odds back down to 35 percent. Green Bay beating Minnesota at home would shrink those odds even further to 25 percent.

In a worst-case scenario, if the Commanders, Packers, and Giants all win their respective games, even with a Seahawks victory to move back to .500, they would only have a 13 percent chance of making the postseason. On the flip side, if all three of those teams lose and the Lions win, odds would jump up to 67 percent.

Of course, Seattle has to take care of its own business against New York and snap a three-game losing streak, as a loss would guarantee a second straight losing season and put them in serious danger of elimination.

If the Seahawks lose to the Jets, they would need to pray for the Browns to somehow upset the Commanders to keep their razor thin playoff hopes alive. They would also need the Packers and/or Lions to lose their respective games, as wins by both NFC North teams would eliminate them from the hunt as well.

In regard to a best-case scenario while sitting at 7-9 - if there is such a thing - the Seahawks would still have a 27 percent chance or earning a playoff berth if the Giants, Lions, Packers, and Commanders all tripped up in Week 17. Though it seems unlikely all four of those teams would lose next weekend, such a result would keep five teams in the mix for two wild card spots and guarantee a wild final weekend of NFL action.

Interestingly, the Giants winning over the Colts in this scenario wouldn't decrease the Seahawks chances of a playoff berth at all since they would be eliminated from the sixth seed anyway. At this stage, the Packers and Commanders are the two teams to worry about the most when it comes to knocking them out of the postseason picture.

Regardless, scoreboard watching will be a moot point if the Seahawks can't find a way to beat the Jets, who have been struggling mightily themselves. A loss on Sunday would make it extremely difficult to limp into the postseason and if there's a silver lining in that scenario, that would likely mean the team will have two first-round picks in the top 12 next April instead as a consolation prize.

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