Seahawks vs. 49ers: Third Time's a Charm? Here's What Playoff History Says

Two of the Seattle Seahawks' worst performances this season came against their bitter rivals from the bay. But is history on their side to enact a bit of revenge in the Wild Card round?

As the saying goes, it's difficult for an NFL team to beat a quality opponent three times in one season. But while the Seattle Seahawks will be hoping that proves true when they battle the San Francisco 49ers at Levis Stadium in the wild card round next Saturday, does past precedent actually work in their favor?

Well, it does. And yet, it doesn't.

Dating back to the 1970 NFL/AFL merger, there have been 23 such occurrences where a team has swept a divisional opponent in the regular season and then squared off again in the playoffs. The team attempting the sweep compiled a 14-9 record in those games and in the 18 instances where the regular season victors were at home, those teams have posted a sterling 12-6 record, which equates to a .666 win percentage.

Since the turn of the century, home teams seeking a regular season and playoff sweep against a division rival have produced a 5-3 record, including winning three of the past four such contests. However, the last example that happened during the COVID-impacted 2020 season may provide a bit of hope for Seattle heading towards next weekend.

Even with Tom Brady under center, the Buccaneers have endured persistent problems with the Saints over the past three years. In his first year with the franchise after bolting New England, they lost at home to New Orleans in September by a 34-23 score and then got demolished 38-3 in the Big Easy in November, casting doubts about their viability as a Super Bowl contender.

But when the two rivals met again at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome two months later, Brady outclassed Drew Brees in their final matchup against each other. After falling behind 6-0 early on a pair of Will Lutz field goals in the first quarter, Tampa Bay outscored New Orleans 30-14 the rest of the way to advance to the NFC Championship Game and upset Kansas City two weeks later to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Last year, the 49ers weren't able to complete the sweep against the Rams after upsetting them twice in the regular season, losing a heartbreaker at SoFi Stadium in the NFC Championship Game. So the past two times that a team has sought three wins against a divisional opponent in the postseason have gone in favor of the underdog.

Much like the Buccaneers did against the Saints a couple of years ago, the Seahawks didn't look to be in the same league as the 49ers in their two previous matchups. In Week 2, San Francisco didn't allow a single point of offense to quarterback Geno Smith and company in a lopsided 20-point win. More recently in Week 15, Seattle put up a better fight in a 21-13 defeat, but the game didn't feel that close with the road team dominating in the trenches and a pick-six wiped out by a questionable penalty.

Is it conceivable Smith, Ken Walker III, and a talented stable of skill players could have greater success against the 49ers No. 1 ranked scoring defense? While it will be tougher for the Seahawks to accomplish on the road than if they were playing at Lumen Field, if the offensive line can play better than it did in the previous two matchups, it's not out of the question they could make things interesting and position themselves for postseason payback.

One thing is for certain: Coach Pete Carroll will have his team believing they can build off two straight wins to close out the regular season and give San Francisco all it can handle. Recent improvements running the ball and defending the run present reasons for optimism on that front.

With that said, history still suggests it will be a very tall task for Carroll's squad against a superior opponent loaded with stars on both sides of the ball that has won 10 consecutive games. Along with getting far better play from Smith than they received in Sunday's win over the Rams, they will need several bounces to fall their way as 10-point underdogs to have a chance, but as the last few years have demonstrated, anything can happen in survive and advance playoff games.

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