Seahawks Entering Must-Win Territory in NFC West Race

Though it may only be Week 9, the Seahawks and Rams will enter Sunday's matchup at Lumen Field facing plenty of desperation in a crowded division.

Oct 27, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) rushes against the Buffalo Bills during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Even after losing four of their past five games, the Seattle Seahawks still sit in a three-way tie atop the NFC West with a 4-4 record, which means they remain very much in the hunt for a division title after eight weeks.

However, with nine games left to play on the schedule, the Seahawks have little margin for error heading into a Week 9 clash with the visiting Rams at Lumen Field. While coach Mike Macdonald didn't call it a "must win" situation, reading through the tea leaves, he understands that beating their division rivals on Sunday would be a major game changer for the team's playoff hopes at this stage of the season.

"It's a sense of urgency to grow. That's what it is," Macdonald told reporters on Wednesday. "We could be playing a team from Germany, it just doesn't matter who you play. It's the mentality as a team for us to grow and improve and fix the things and make right the things that are plaguing us right now."

Though the Seahawks have the same record as the Cardinals and 49ers and have a half game advantage on the Rams heading into the weekend, not all records are created equal due to a variety of factors.

Per The Athletic's NFL playoff model, Seattle has only a 17 percent chance of winning the NFC West, the lowest of any team in the division. Why is the simulator so down on Macdonald's team in regard to odds for capturing a division title?

First off, the Seahawks are the only NFC West team so far that has yet to win a game against a division opponent. The 49ers beat them in a head-to-head matchup at Lumen Field in Week 6, while the Rams beat the 49ers and the Cardinals have wins over both the 49ers and Rams, giving all three rivals an advantage in tiebreakers.

Secondly, Seattle has posted a dismal 1-3 record against NFC opponents so far, with the only win against another conference foe coming in Atlanta two weeks ago. In comparison, Arizona, San Francisco, and Los Angeles have all won two conference games, once again giving them a feather in the cap when it comes to tiebreakers.

In the event that the Seahawks lose to the Rams at home on Sunday, they will drop to 0-2 against NFC West rivals and 1-4 against conference opponents, which would be a difficult hole to climb out of with eight games left on the schedule. Losses to the Lions and Giants could loom large come late December if the divisional and wild card races stay tight, putting Macdonald's team in a tough spot if they wind up tying for the division lead or a final playoff seed.

On the flip side, beating the Rams would dramatically improve the Seahawks resume, boosting their conference record to a more respectable 2-3 while also giving them a head-to-head tiebreaker over their division rival. Los Angeles would drop to 3-5 on the season with five conference losses already in tow, which would be bad news on the tiebreaker front if Sean McVay's team does manage to climb back into the playoff hunt late in the season.

"There's an opportunity here to really take a next step and get a win where we can put ourselves in a great position to go get another win," Macdonald said. "Still, there's a lot of football to be played, but definitely a win puts you in a lot better position. It kind of furthers the story that you're trying to develop as a football team throughout the season."

On a new episode of Locked On Seahawks, hosts Corbin Smith and Rob Rang take a look at the NFC West standings after eight weeks, discuss why Sunday's game carries extra significance for Seattle and Los Angeles, and break down six key positional battles to watch when the Seahawks face off with the Rams, including Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon sparring with star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

Listen to the latest Locked On Seahawks in entirety here or subscribe for free to the podcast platform of your choice here.

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