Analysis: Have Seattle Seahawks WRs Lived Up to Elite Expectations?

Receiving preseason praise over the last five seasons, the Seattle Seahawks' wide receivers have turned in mixed results. However, 2023 was their best in that span.

Dec 18, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) celebrates with wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) after catching a touchdown pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Seahawks have one of the top receiver groups in the NFL no matter how you cut it. Talent, potential, production, starters, depth — you name it, Seattle’s pass-catchers have it.

But the talent at the position has risen league-wide as well, making it increasingly difficult to identify which franchises are the most receiver-rich of all 32 teams. ESPN senior writer Mike Clay recently published his 2024 NFL Projections, which includes position group rankings for every team. Beat reporter Corbin K. Smith and I discussed Seattle’s rankings in an episode of the Locked On Seahawks podcast last Friday.

Seattle’s receivers ranked third in Clay’s projections, which immediately feels like the right spot for the group (anywhere outside of the top five would have been egregious). However, it left me wondering: How have the Seahawks’ receivers stacked up to expectations the last few seasons?

So, I dove into the last five seasons — dating back to DK Metcalf’s rookie season in 2019 — and compiled how the Seahawks’ top three leading receivers compared to the rest of the NFL. Seattle’s receiver corps looked much different then than now, and the production distribution has completely shifted since Jaxon Smith-Njigba entered the fray in 2023.

Note: Statistical rankings and top-three considerations only include players listed as receivers during that season. Running backs, tight ends or other position groups are omitted. (All stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference.)

2019

Top 3 receivers: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, David Moore

Mike Clay preseason ranking: N/A (not available)

Lockett: 82 receptions (14th) 1,057 receiving yards (20th), 8 TD (T-7th)

Metcalf: 58 receptions (T-36th), 900 receiving yards (28th), 7 TD (T-13th)

Moore: 17 receptions (T-113th), 301 receiving yards (91st), 2 TD T-76th)

While a sub-par year overall for Seattle’s receivers, this was an exceptional season for Russell Wilson, who finished with 4,110 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and just five interceptions on a 66.1 percent completion rate. Moore was actually the fourth-leading receiver behind tight end Jacob Hollister, who had 41 catches for 349 yards and four touchdowns. Five non-receivers finished with at least 200 receiving yards, which dragged down the top-end totals.

2020

Top 3 receivers: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore

Mike Clay preseason ranking: 12th

Metcalf: 83 receptions (17th), 1,303 receiving yards (6th), 10 TD (T-6th)

Lockett: 100 receptions (5th), 1,054 receiving yards (15th), 10 TD (T-6th)

Moore: 35 receptions (T-77th), 417 receiving yards (85th), 6 TD (T-21st)

This was Metcalf’s breakout season and is still the best of his career. Wilson threw for 4,212 yards, 40 touchdowns and 13 interceptions this season, pushing Lockett past the 1,000-yard mark as well. Lockett pulled in 100 of 132 targets (75.7 percent), which is still ridiculous at that volume. The fall-off to Moore was fairly steep, however, and running back Chris Carson was the next closest receiver with 287 yards on 37 catches. Regardless, this team played above their 12th-place ranking in 2020.

Dec 18, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (16) runs for yards after the catch against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

2021

Top 3 receivers: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Freddie Swain

Mike Clay preseason ranking: 7th

Lockett: 73 receptions (T-28th), 1,175 receiving yards (8th), 8 TD (T-12th)

Metcalf: 75 receptions (25th), 967 receiving yards (25th), 12 TD (4th)

Swain: 25 receptions (T-102nd), 343 receiving yards (97th), 4 TD (T-46th)

Lockett and Metcalf were a solid tandem, but this was not the season it was supposed to be for this group. To be fair, Clay’s projections were based on Dee Eskridge (2nd round pick in 2021) becoming the team’s third receiver, and that has not happened. Tight end Gerald Everett was the team’s third-leading receiver with 48 catches for 478 yards and four touchdowns — ahead of Swain. Seattle had just five total players eclipse 200 yards receiving this season. Metcalf’s scoring total and Lockett’s yardage numbers were bright spots, as each total remains career highs for the two receivers. That said, they didn’t live up to the 7th-place ranking.

2022

Top 3 receivers: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Marquise Goodwin

Mike Clay preseason ranking: 7th

Metcalf: 90 receptions (10th), 1,048 receiving yards (15th), 6 TD (T-19th)

Lockett: 84 receptions (T-14th), 1,033 receiving yards (18th), 9 TD (T-4th)

Goodwin: 27 receptions (T-91st), 387 receiving yards (87th), 4 TD (T-32nd)

In his first year as the team’s starter, Geno Smith set the Seahawks’ single-season passing yards record (4,282) and Seattle ranked 10th as a team in receiving yards. As a result, Lockett and Metcalf each enjoyed 1,000-yard seasons while not finishing inside the top 10 among NFL receivers in any statistic — a somewhat puzzling result. However, six players finished with at least 300 receiving yards, and the addition of tight end Noah Fant (50 receptions, 486 yards, four touchdowns) ate up some of the receiver production. Seventh was probably just right for this group.

Nov 13, 2022; Munich, Germany; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Marquise Goodwin (11) celebrates after catching a touchdown pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the fourth quarter during an NFL International Series game at Allianz Arena. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

2023

Top 3 receivers: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Mike Clay preseason ranking: 2nd

Metcalf: 66 receptions (34th), 1,114 receiving yards (18th), 8 TD (T-7th)

Lockett: 79 receptions (T-18th), 894 receiving yards (31st), 5 TD (T-28th)

Smith-Njigba: 63 receptions (T-36th), 628 receiving yards (51st), 4 TD (T-41st)

Smith-Njigba’s arrival completely shifted the distribution of targets and receptions in Seattle’s offense. Whereas tight ends had typically been the team’s third-leading receiver since 2019, Smith-Njigba absorbed that role and became Seattle’s first WR3 to eclipse 500 receiving yards during this span. That, of course, ate into Metcalf and Lockett’s production, but that pair still commanded a 41 percent combined target share. These numbers were also with Fant adding 414 receiving yards on 32 catches from the tight end spot.

Looking at the other teams in Clay’s top-five rankings for the 2024 season, it would be difficult to argue Seattle lower than fifth. Even the third-place spot feels a bit low based on raw production last season. Houston and San Francisco are the only teams above Seattle, while Cincinnati and Miami, respectively are below the Seahawks.

Here’s a look at the expected top-three receivers for each of those teams, using 2023 numbers, in the same format as Seattle.

Houston Texans (1st)

Top 3 receivers: Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell

Diggs: 107 receptions (6th), 1,183 receiving yards (13th), 8 TD (T-7th)

Collins: 80 receptions (17th), 1,297 receiving yards (8th), 8 TD (T-7th)

Dell: 47 receptions (54th), 709 receiving yards (45th), 7 TD (45th)

San Francisco 49ers (2nd)

Top 3 receivers: Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall

Aiyuk: 75 receptions (T-24th), 1,342 receiving yards (7th), 7 TD (T-17th)

Samuel: 60 receptions (T-39th), 892 receiving yards (32nd), 7 TD (T-17th)

Pearsall: N/A (31st overall pick in 2024 NFL Draft)

Cincinnati Bengals (4th)

Top 3 receivers: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jermaine Burton

Chase: 100 receptions (11th), 1,216 receiving yards (12th), 7 TD (T-17th)

Higgins: 42 receptions (58th), 656 receiving yards (49th), 5 TD (T-28th)

Burton: N/A (2nd round pick in 2024 NFL Draft)

Miami Dolphins (5th)

Top 3 receivers: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham Jr.

Hill: 119 receptions (2nd), 1,799 receiving yards (1st), 13 TD (1st)

Waddle: 72 receptions (T-26th), 1,014 receiving yards (T-25th), 4 TD (T-41st)

Beckham Jr.: 35 receptions (T-71st), 565 receiving yards (T-59th), 3 TD (T-57th)

It’s really close all the way through, and it should be noted Clay’s rankings are based on a five-receiver projection. However, despite Samuel missing two games for San Francisco last year, it’s tough to understand the 49ers being ranked above the Seahawks. The rationale would have to assume Lockett slows even more in 2024, and Pearsall rivals Smith-Njigba’s second-year numbers as a rookie.

Houston is the clear top choice, especially with Noah Brown still on the roster, but it’s surprising to see Miami fifth with the pull of Hill and Waddle. I would put Miami second, Seattle third, San Francisco fourth and Cincinnati and Chicago in a tie for fifth. Now it’s time to wait and see which units live up to expectations in 2024, and the Seahawks are on a perfect trajectory based on last year’s resume.