Breaking Down Seahawks Playoff Scenarios Heading Into Week 17

Taking care of business in Chicago will be the first step, but the Seahawks will need significant help to make Week 18 a winner-take-all NFC West title game.

Dec 22, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

After dropping a tough 27-24 contest to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, the Seattle Seahawks no longer control their own destiny and to win the NFC West, they will have to have several dominos fall their way beyond simply winning their final two games.

As their first order of business, Geno Smith and the Seahawks will have to travel to Chicago on the day after Christmas and defeat the Bears at Soldier Field. A loss or a tie on Thursday night would not eliminate them from playoff contention, but in that scenario, the Rams would lock up the division by beating the Cardinals on Sunday, making the upcoming rematch between the two teams in Week 18 a non-factor in deciding the NFC West.

But even if Seattle does beat Chicago on the road, however, that will not guarantee the season finale ends up being a winner-take-all battle at SoFi Stadium in the final week. If Los Angeles beats Arizona, they will improve to 4-1 in the NFC West, meaning the worst they can finish for the season is with a 4-2 record, which would tie Seattle after a loss in the season finale.

Along with being equal with that tiebreaker and splitting their head-to-head series, the Seahawks and Rams would both have identical 4-4 records against similar opponents and the same conference record, making strength of victory the next tiebreaker to determine who would win the division. Going into Week 17, Los Angeles holds a nine-game advantage in that category after being Buffalo and Minnesota earlier this year, meaning Seattle will need teams that it beat earlier in the season to step up and win games this weekend to keep them alive in the title race and close that gap.

Specifically, per an official memo from the NFL, the Seahawks will need four wins from Packers, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Broncos, or Dolphins out of six games this weekend to stay in the NFC West hunt if both they and the Rams win in Week 17. In other words, they would need a ton of help from other teams to ensure that the season finale becomes a division title game.

In a more simple pathway to the division title and a home playoff game, if the Seahawks and Rams both lose this weekend, the winner of their Week 18 rematch would be the NFC West winner no matter what else happens around the league.

Considering all of those scenarios and the possibility that the Seahawks may or may not be in contention anymore next week regardless of whether they beat the Bears or not, 12s better buckle up, as the next several days should be quite interesting with playoff races reaching the final stretch during the holiday season.

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