Enemy Confidential: Unknowns Aplenty as Seattle Seahawks Gear Up For Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Opening the season against a quarterback making his first NFL start, Mike Macdonald and the Seattle Seahawks will have to be ready to adjust quickly on Sunday.

Aug 11, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) stand on the field during warm ups before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

RENTON, Wash. - The start of the regular season in the NFL always presents uncertainty. The vast majority of teams haven't played their starters much in exhibition play and dialed up vanilla schemes when they did see the field, making Week 1 a battle of adjustments moreso than any other game on the schedule.

Set to make his regular season debut as a first-time head coach for the Seattle Seahawks this weekend, Mike Macdonald understands there's little to go off of preparing for the Denver Broncos, especially with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix making his NFL debut at Lumen Field on Sunday afternoon. Both teams will have to rely on their bread and butter concepts on offense and defense, switching things up as the game unfolds with little intel to game plan off of.

"Beginning of the season is tough because everyone has an idea about who they are, what they want to be, and the type of plays that they want to hang their hat on, schematically, how they want to use their personnel," Macdonald explained on Wednesday prior to practice. "So, you don't have that sample size this time of year. You really just have to focus on executing your stuff the best you possibly can and make them beat you throwing your fastball. That's been the message to the guys. We're going to be running our stuff from now until whenever. It's hard to kind of pick and choose and tailor it to how they've operated because the sample is just not there."

If there's something Macdonald and his staff can reference devising a strategy for Sunday, the former Ravens defensive coordinator and long-time assistant has faced Broncos coach Sean Payton several times in the past, including when he served as Saints head coach for more than a decade. With plenty of familiarity of his success over the years, there's a mutual respect between the two coaches.

With a new quarterback under center in Nix who brings his own unique skill set to the table, Macdonald doesn't expect Denver's offense to be a carbon copy to what he did in New Orleans with future Hall of Famer Drew Brees under center. At the same time, while Seattle must account for the rookie's dual threat capabilities and quick release, Payton won't completely reinvent the wheel either and the team will be taking a close look at how his scheme has functioned over the years and the concepts he has leaned heavily on.

"I think it's a sliding scale so to speak on how much you factor in all the things. This system is Sean's system. It seems like they've been really successful with it for such a long time. Bo [Nix] seems like he's a great fit for what they're asking him to do, which is a little bit different than some stuff. Some of those things might carry over, how he operates, things like that. His strength will definitely transfer from college to the pros, but I wouldn't put too much stock into it. We got a lot of respect for him as a player but we're also defending the plays that Sean's been running for years."

Aiming to get off to a quick start to open the Macdonald era, here’s a closer look at the Seahawks well-coached Week 1 opponent, including series history, additions/departures, a deep dive into scheme, and Macdonald's evaluation of the new-look Broncos.

Series History

56th regular season meeting. The Broncos hold a commanding 35-20 all-time regular season record over the Seahawks dating back to several decades as AFC West rivals. However, Seattle has gotten the last laugh in the postseason, including a dominant 43-8 win over Denver in Super Bowl XLVIII. Most recently, the Seahawks edged the Broncos 17-16 in the 2022 season opener in Wilson's homecoming game and the Broncos won a 27-24 decision at Mile High Stadium in 2018.

What's New?

Departures: Absorbing a massive $53 million dead cap hit in 2024, the Broncos moved on from former Seahawks star quarterback Russell Wilson in March, releasing him after two disappointing seasons under center to start anew at the most important position in pro sports. Dealing with major salary cap issues as a result, the team also cut perennial All-Pro safety Justin Simmons in a financials-driven transaction, creating a major void in the secondary. Unhappy with his production as a former first-round pick, the team traded receiver Jerry Jeudy to the Browns for a pair of 2024 draft picks in March. Former starting linebacker Josey Jewell and center Lloyd Cushenberry bolted in free agency as well, signing with the Panthers and Titans respectively.

Additions: Quickly finding a successor for Wilson, Denver invested its 12th overall pick in Nix, who earned a spot as a Heisman finalist after a spectacular final season at Oregon. Additionally, the team invested a fourth-round pick in Oregon receiver Troy Franklin, teaming him back up with Nix, to go with pass rusher Jonah Ellis in the third round. Replacing Simmons in the secondary, the Broncos signed former Dolphins starter Brandon Jones in free agency, plugging him alongside P.J. Locke at the safety spots. The team also replaced Jewell with ex-Seahawks starter Cody Barton, who spent last season with the Commanders and will now start next to Alex Singleton, along with adding veteran defensive tackle Malcolm Roach, who previously played for Payton in New Orleans.

Injury Report

The Broncos didn't have a single player listed on their injury report on Wednesday with the team fully healthy going into the regular season.

Inside The Scheme

Sticking to status quo from his time in New Orleans, Payton continued to run a variety of personnel groupings in his first season at the helm in Denver. Last season, the Broncos deployed 11 personnel with three receivers, one running back, and one tight end at a 55 percent clip, which ranked 25th in the NFL according to Sumer Sports charting. However, they ranked in the top 10 in 21 personnel usage, utilizing multi-back formations nearly 10 percent of the time. They also used 12 personnel with multiple tight ends nearly 20 percent of their offensive snaps, ranking in the middle of the league.

In the run game department, per Pro Football Focus, the Broncos utilized zone concepts 56 percent of the time (192 plays), matching up with Payton's history of preferring a zone-centric rushing attack. Interestingly, after years of being one of the best play action passers in the NFL, Wilson only ran play fakes on 22.6 percent of his drop backs last season, which ranked 16th out of 28 qualified quarterbacks, but did throw 11 touchdowns and only one pick on those plays.

One of the NFL's most aggressive defensive coordinators, per Pro Football Reference, Vance Joseph dialed up blitzes with at least five rushers coming for the quarterback on 35 percent of Denver's snaps last season, which ranked fifth in the league. The penchant for blitzing didn't help generate heat on quarterbacks consistently, however, as the Broncos finished 29th in pressure rate (18.2 percent) and 30th in hurry rate (4.4 percent).

In coverage, while relying much of the time on 4-2-5 personnel, Joseph continued a long track record of preferring single-high, middle of field closed concepts, as the Broncos ranked sixth in Cover 3 usage (40.6 percent) and also used Cover 1 with man underneath 21 percent of their defensive snaps. Few teams did a better job of mixing up looks pre and post-snap with Denver finishing fifth among NFL teams with a 30.7 percent disguise rate.

Macdonald's Thoughts

-On if he expects Denver to run the ball more with a rookie quarterback under center: "I don't have all the run percentages and pass percentages. It's more like types of plays you have to defend. They're smart coaches, they got a great scheme, he's a really good player. We expect them to do the things that Bo does well. Keep the ball moving, try to create some explosive plays, be successful in the red zone. I think these guys do a really good job of that."

-On the hallmarks of a Sean Payton-led offense: "He's going to play everybody. They do a great job of playing all their guys, there's a lot of different personnel groups. Run and pass are complementary. The drop back game I think is consistent for the quarterback but they can create explosives that way too. They get the ball to their playmakers. It's a tried and true system. They've done it really well for a long time."

-On what makes Bo Nix a great fit for Payton's system: "He plays on time, he seems like he makes a lot of fast decisions. Kind of like Drew [Brees] was, he's an underrated athlete. Just being able to move in the pocket, extend plays, it seems like he's really accurate. I think he has probably an underrated arm, he can deliver the ball just about anywhere. I think the decision making, how fast he plays is probably one of the things they like about him."