How Can Seahawks Win NFC West After Week 17 Win at Bears?

Following a win in the Windy City, the Seahawks still will need significant help this weekend to keep their slim NFC West hopes alive heading into the final week.

Dec 26, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes the ball against the Chicago Bears during the third quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

Snapping a two-game losing streak, albeit in a defensive slugfest with more punts than points scored, the Seattle Seahawks took care of their own business in a 6-3 road win over the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football to stay alive in the NFC West race.

Now, without complete control of their playoff destiny, Geno Smith, Mike Macdonald, and the Seahawks will have to hope the Cardinals can come through and beat the Rams on Saturday to turn their upcoming Week 18 rematch with the Rams into a winner takes all contest.

“Honestly, we shouldn't be in this position. That's the main thing," Smith said following Thursday's win. "Understanding that we got to control our destiny when we can, yeah, I'm going to be a big [Cardinals QB] Kyler Murray fan on Saturday. If they get it done they get it done. We're going to go into the last week of the season with the same mindset no matter what.”

While guaranteed a winning season for the third straight year, Seattle will need significant help to be able to win the NFC West and earn a home playoff game in the wild card round.

If the Rams beat the Cardinals, they will improve to 4-1 in the NFC West, meaning the worst they can finish for the season is with a 4-2 record within the division, which would tie the Seahawks after a loss in the season finale. Such a scenario would create a complicated tiebreaker process with both teams having equal records within the division, conference, and against common foes, making the strength of victory metric the next tiebreaker to determine a division winner.

Going into Week 17, Los Angeles held a nine-game advantage in that category after defeating Buffalo and Minnesota earlier this year, meaning Seattle will need teams that it beat earlier in the season to step up and win games this weekend to keep them alive in the title race and close that gap.

Specifically, per an official memo from the NFL released earlier in the week, the Seahawks will need four wins to come from the Packers, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Broncos, or Dolphins out of six games this weekend to stay in the NFC West hunt if both they and the Rams win in Week 17. In other words, they would need a bunch of dominos to fall to ensure that the season finale becomes a division title game even after winning on Thursday, and they would need more help in Week 18 to clinch a playoff spot.

Though those odds may not seem great with so many other teams holding Seattle's fate, Macdonald isn't dwelling on factors out of his control. He will be watching every snap and keeping his fingers crossed Arizona can get the job done by beating Los Angeles and turn the regular season finale into a true playoff game next weekend.

“Look, I mean, we're in the mode of controlling what we can control. We know what's coming next week. We're going to spend this weekend getting our minds and bodies and spirits right to
go play a game. Yeah, we're praying that it's for the division championship.”

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